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Thread: Free-agent stunner: Low-payroll Astros could make play for Choo

  1. #31
    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: Free-agent stunner: Low-payroll Astros could make play for Choo

    Quote Originally Posted by BungleBengals View Post
    Bold predictions.

    I still think it is going to be hard for them even get 3rd place next year. The Angels are always dangerous and could be even more when they are healthy. Rangers have been competitive in recent years and now they have a GM who can focus on his job. You also have Beane and the A's doing their thing as well as the Mariners who are a couple years out too. Which two teams will finish behind the Astros?
    1 team will flop that isn't expected to but I don't know which one - like LA did this year. Seattle will be the other. And Houston might fall back to 4th or even 5th if the West is really tight and competitive top to bottom. Point is they will make things much more interesting next year - they have some kids in AAA that will come up and some already on the team. If they make a couple FA acquisitions to help they will be much better than anyone expects - next year. Still too young and too inexperienced to compete all the way but they won;t be the same patsies anymore.
    No - I am not from State Farm!

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  3. #32
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: Free-agent stunner: Low-payroll Astros could make play for Choo

    Quote Originally Posted by RedlegJake View Post
    Put me down right here and now as the contrarian - Houston will be fairly competitive in 2014 (3rd place) and very competitive in 2015 (2nd place), and winning the AL West in 2016.
    That's about the time frame I'm thinking too. Not sure about 3rd place next year, but certainly improvement.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

  4. #33
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    Re: Free-agent stunner: Low-payroll Astros could make play for Choo

    *Free-Agent Forecast: How much will MLB's top free agents get, and from whom?
    http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/63269580/

    Shin-Soo Choo

    Choo enters free agency coming off a monster season at the plate, in which he hit .285/.423/.462 with 21 home runs. Choo has always been a patient hitter, but a high hit-by-pitch total helped contribute to his ridiculous on-base percentage. It should also be noted that Choo played in a friendly offensive environment.

    Consistency should play a big role in Choo's next contract. Even if teams expect some decline after his great 2013, Choo has put up a .377 wOBA over the past five seasons. That figure ranks sixth among outfielders with at least 2,000 plate appearances since 2008. From a free agent standpoint, both Nick Swisher and Shane Victorino made some sense as comps -- until Hunter Pence signed a $90 million extension with the Giants in September. Both players are the same age, so Pence's deal is the perfect contract for Choo to use as a baseline. Both players are pretty equal using WAR. Pence holds a small lead over Choo 24.5 to 23.6. Choo has been a much better offensive player, but his defense has slipped considerably the past two seasons, pushing down his value.

    Projected contract: It really depends on how the league reacts to Pence's deal. Choo has every right to ask for $18 million per year, considering he's been as good as Pence. If teams see that as an overpay, Choo may have to work with less money. But if he can play bidders up, there's a chance for him to get a little more. For now, an annual salary between $17 million and $19 million seems likely.

    Potential landing spots: The Reds have been mentioned as a suitor for an outfielder, and could opt to hold Choo. Houston has emerged as a surprise suitor as well, even though they currently boast the lowest payroll in baseball. The Mariners are in need of outfield help, but Choo likely wouldn't be in a position to win immediately. The Rangers could also use help in the outfield, and should compete next season.

  5. #34
    "So Fla Red"
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    Re: Free-agent stunner: Low-payroll Astros could make play for Choo

    Choo is hitting the market at a great time due to the lack of available FA talent with more clubs locking up players pre-FA, new stat thinking being in vogue in the front offices and his tremendous '13 numbers. No one could have imagined Choo getting a $100M+ deal at the start of the season.

    Would like to know if the Reds tried to make Choo an extended offer immediately after the trade. 3/40 or 4/50 might have gotten it done although I suspect Choo would have wanted to see how the year went in Cincinnati first with Boras strong advice.


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