Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work. The Reds are next in our series. Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.
Homer Bailey (5.017): $9.3MM
Mike Leake (4.000): $5.9MM
Aroldis Chapman (3.034): $4.6MM
Ryan Hanigan (5.077): $2.3MM
Chris Heisey (3.157): $1.7MM
Alfredo Simon (4.142): $1.6MM
Xavier Paul (3.119): $1MM
Sam LeCure (3.072): $1MM
Corky Miller (4.112): $700K
Bailey posted the best season of his career in 2013, and stayed healthy for the second consecutive year. 28 in May, he's due a large raise for his contract year. Discounts can be rare with a player so close to free agency, and even Jered Weaver's five-year, $85MM deal might not be enough to lock up Bailey at this point.
If the Reds don't see Bailey as a potential $100MM pitcher for them, they'll have to decide whether to trade him now, trade him during the season, or just let him walk as a free agent. Brandon Phillips might be the Reds' preferred salary to clear this winter, but Bailey is another option and would bring a much larger return. Replacing his production in the rotation is the hard part.