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Thread: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis

  1. #31
    Moderator Gallen5862's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis

    https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal

    Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 2m

    #Padres’ Kennedy ($6.1M) and #Orioles’ Norris ($5.3M) are comps to #Cubs’ Samardzija. So are Leake and Medlen, whose deals are not done.

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  3. #32
    Member Mitri's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis

    https://twitter.com/BHSCouncil/statu...43783757099008

    Reds and Mike Leake avoid arb.

    That leaves only Bailey and Chapman.

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    Re: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

    Reds, Mike Leake Avoid Arbtration

    By Zach Links [January 17 at 12:19pm CST]

    The Reds and Mike Leake have avoided arbitration, according to the Beverly Hills Sports Council (via Twitter). He'll get $5.925MM plus incentives, reports Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com (Twitter links).

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    Re: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis

    http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/201...-homer-bailey/


    Reds general manager Walt Jocketty said the Reds came close to getting a deal done with Homer Bailey before the 1 p.m. deadline to exchange salary numbers.

    “We talked a one-year and a multiyear deal,” he said. “We’ll keep talking.”

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    Re: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis

    https://twitter.com/JonHeymanCBS


    Homer bailey files at $11.6M, reds $8.7M

    Chapman files at $5.4M, reds $4.6M

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    Re: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis

    Quote Originally Posted by PepperJack View Post
    Looks like Homer will probably make around $10.15M and Aroldis in the area of $5M

    I'd say things are coming to a head with Homer. If he compromises on a 1year deal or goes through the arb process then he's gone by the end of the year (or sooner).

    If Walt pulls a huge miracle and gets an extension, I'll guess something in the 5/$80-85M range with a sixth year option that pushes it right at $100M (or a little beyond) or possibly six or seven years with a year or two that he can opt out of.

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    Re: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis

    Chapman and the Reds are close, they should settle around $5 million. Looks easy.

    Bailey and the Reds are almost $3 million apart. Big gulf between them, even on a one year deal.

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    Re: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

    Reds Discussing Long-Term Deal With Homer Bailey

    By Jeff Todd [January 17 at 8:59pm CST]

    Discussing the team's inability to reach agreement with pitcher Homer Bailey before today's deadline to submit arbitration figures, Reds GM Walt Jocketty indicated that the sides were discussing a long-term extension, reports MLB.com's Mark Sheldon. He further indicated that the club was not concerned with the situations of either of its two prominent remaining arbitration cases, Bailey and closer Aroldis Chapman.

    Though the sides have reportedly had previous discussions on a significant extension, Jocketty raised expectations that something would get worked out. As the GM explained:

    "In Bailey's case, we were working on a multi-year [deal]. The agent [Casey Close] has [Clayton] Kersaw and he has [Masahiro] Tanaka also, so he's been tied up with that. We just didn't anticipate getting it done, but we exchanged numbers in the event and we will continue to negotiate and hopefully get something done before the hearing date."

    Jocketty further indicated that he is "optimistic" about reaching a long-term deal. Discussing the terms of the contract, he said:

    "I just think it depends on where they feel the market settles in on free-agent pitchers. Hopefully, we're not too far with our estimate and with their estimate about the market going forward. What it will be based on is what market for a guy like Bailey will be in the future."

  10. #39
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Chapman and the Reds are close, they should settle around $5 million. Looks easy.
    Sign him and shop him. Add $4.25 Million in bonus money and Chappy is one of the reasons the Reds can't afford a bat IMO. If it comes down to keeping Bailey, Latos or Chapman, he's the one to deal. $9.25 this year, next year will be year 2 of arb and even though the $3 Million bonus goes away, I'd expect his total cost to top $10 Million. Year 3 of arb will see him near $12 Million IMO. Even though no long term deal, you're looking at around $30 Million or so earmarked for saves over the next three years. If you want to make some salary room for other needs, there is where it should come from.

    Don't give him away though. One guy who can address a weak area on the big league team, a young power arm to mix back in the pen and a top 100 prospect would be needed to pull the trigger.
    Last edited by mth123; 01-18-2014 at 06:21 AM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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    Re: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Sign him and shop him. Add $4.25 Million in bonus money and Chappy is one of the reasons the Reds can't afford a bat IMO. If it comes down to keeping Bailey, Latos or Chapman, he's the one to deal. $9.25 this year, next year will be year 2 of arb and even though the $3 Million bonus goes away, I'd expect his total cost to top $10 Million. Year 3 of arb will see him near $12 Million IMO. Even though no long term deal, you're looking at around $30 Million or so earmarked for saves over the next three years. If you want to make some salary room for other needs, there is where it should come from.

    Don't give him away though. One guy who can address a weak area on the big league team, a young power arm to mix back in the pen and a top 100 prospect would be needed to pull the trigger.
    I'm not sure how the Reds set it up, but most teams don't count signing bonuses of amateur players against payroll. It usually comes out of the player development part of the budget. I'm pretty sure the $1.25M bonus this season for Chapman is not being counted against payroll, and I wouldn't be surprised if the $3M isn't counted either. But I'm not sure.

    I'm still for trading Chapman for the right return, pretty much what you mentioned, but I don't think he hurts the payroll as much as you're saying.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  13. #41
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    I'm not sure how the Reds set it up, but most teams don't count signing bonuses of amateur players against payroll. It usually comes out of the player development part of the budget. I'm pretty sure the $1.25M bonus this season for Chapman is not being counted against payroll, and I wouldn't be surprised if the $3M isn't counted either. But I'm not sure.

    I'm still for trading Chapman for the right return, pretty much what you mentioned, but I don't think he hurts the payroll as much as you're saying.
    Count it however you want to. Money comes in from revenue sources and goes out in checks to pay for things and the total of that equation is where the payroll budget comes from. $4.25 Million is going out in bonus money to Chapman and that obligation can be dealt in order to spend it on other things. The Reds are probably stuck with the $1.25 Million per year until it's paid up, but I'd say the $3 Million current year cost should be something the team should expect to recoup in a deal. If not, then I'd need a second prospect. Possibly a guy outside the top 100, but in some team's top 10 to 15 range. Maybe a former prospect with an injury issue or a bad year looking for a comeback.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  14. #42
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    Re: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Count it however you want to. Money comes in from revenue sources and goes out in checks to pay for things and the total of that equation is where the payroll budget comes from. $4.25 Million is going out in bonus money to Chapman and that obligation can be dealt in order to spend it on other things. The Reds are probably stuck with the $1.25 Million per year until it's paid up, but I'd say the $3 Million current year cost should be something the team should expect to recoup in a deal. If not, then I'd need a second prospect. Possibly a guy outside the top 100, but in some team's top 10 to 15 range. Maybe a former prospect with an injury issue or a bad year looking for a comeback.
    I won't repeat the reasons for my strong opposition to this trade Chapman thing.

    Question. Let's assume a pitching staff with the five starters. Then there's a pen of Hoover, Parra, Broxton, Marshall, Simon, and Lecure.

    No Chapman. He's traded for a position player and prospect.

    Who is Chappy's replacement? Don't tell me Hoover closes. Not asking about roles.

    What additional pitcher fills Chapman's roster spot?

    Ondrusek is a possibility. Him? Who is the pitcher that takes Aroldis' spot on the Reds pitching staff?

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  16. #43
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I won't repeat the reasons for my strong opposition to this trade Chapman thing.

    Question. Let's assume a pitching staff with the five starters. Then there's a pen of Hoover, Parra, Broxton, Marshall, Simon, and Lecure.

    No Chapman. He's traded for a position player and prospect.

    Who is Chappy's replacement? Don't tell me Hoover closes. Not asking about roles.

    What additional pitcher fills Chapman's roster spot?

    Ondrusek is a possibility. Him? Who is the pitcher that takes Aroldis' spot on the Reds pitching staff?
    Well, in the deal I said get a young power arm back as part of the return. If that can't happen, there were tons of free agents out there for a lot less money that could have filled in the middle of the pen.

    It is about roles. If you think the Reds have a closer in house (I do), then the pitcher to replace Chapman on the roster doesn't have to be a closer. I'd think hard about adding a 6th starter type, Maybe a Chris Capuano or a Scott Baker, Then fill the pen with Hoover, Lecure, Parra, Simon, Marshall and Broxton.

    Fact is, if this team doesn't change the mix by adding a bat and bringing in some more young and cheap players that can filter in as guys get expensive, both the present and the future are at risk. For that to happen, the team needs to deal some one who is desirable to other teams. They won't get there dealing Heisey or a marginal prospect or two. Chapman, Bailey, Latos, Votto or Bruce. Those are the trade chips to choose from in order begin the make-over this team needs. Cueto has too many injury issues. Leake night get something, but probably not enough. Of those guys, Chapman is the one who could most be replaced on the current team without just completely burning it down. Doing nothing is worse IMO and that seems to be the path.
    Last edited by mth123; 01-18-2014 at 05:41 PM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Re: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Well, in the deal I said get a young power arm back as part of the return. If that can't happen, there were tons of free agents out there for a lot less money that could have filled in the middle of the pen.

    It is about roles. If you think the Reds have a closer in house (I do), then the pitcher to replace Chapman on the roster doesn't have to be a closer. I'd think hard about adding a 6th starter type, Maybe a Chris Capuano or a Scott Baker, Then fill the pen with Hoover, Lecure, Parra, Simon, Marshall and Broxton.

    Fact is, if this team doesn't change the mix by adding a bat and bringing in some more young and cheap players that can filter in as guys get expensive, both the present and the future are at risk. For that to happen, the team needs to deal some one who is desirable to other teams. They won't get there dealing Heisey or a marginal prospect or two. Chapman, Bailey, Latos, Votto or Bruce. Those are the trade chips to choose from in order begin the make-over this team needs. Cueto has too many injury issues. Leake night get something, but probably not enough. Of those guys, Chapman is the one who could most be replaced on the current team without just completely burning it down. Doing nothing is worse IMO and that seems to be the path.
    I didn't expect a specific response because your whole premise would be to add a pitcher who cannot be compared to Chapman. Any named pitching replacement would obviously be a come down.

    See, no matter how you say it, you are diluting the talent base on the team by trading Chapman. You would not getting back any player of Chapman's quality. You are sacrificing quality for position.

    I don't trade away experienced, elite, controllable arms unless I'm getting a star player back.
    That kind of pitching is too important and rare. Reliever or not. Period.

    I know you and some others disagree, I get it, thanks for responding.
    Last edited by Kc61; 01-18-2014 at 09:11 PM.

  18. #45
    Matt's Dad RANDY IN INDY's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis

    Reds avoid arbitration with Chapman. 1 Year 5 million.


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