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Thread: Report: Reds Hire Bryan Price

  1. #316
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    Re: Report: Reds Hire Bryan Price

    Quote Originally Posted by RadfordVA View Post
    True but I think a lot are putting words into Price's mouth because it is what they want to believe. Nowhere in the interview did he say he would use all stats available or even reference "advanced stats". Only said it is a growing part of the game. The only things he stated specifically was a displeasure for the matchup game. Which if coming from Dusty Baker would have most very uneasy. Also that as a Manager he would have to trust in players to come through in situations. Also a very Baker like philosophy.

    He may be more inclined to use advanced stats he may not. We should be able to tell a few months into the season. But to those claiming excitement for the hire because he will manage more sabr friendly than Baker are premature. If anything his quotes would have you thinking otherwise.
    Actually, Price used the phrase "statistical analysis" which indicates to me that he understands that it's more than looking at someone's RBIs in a vacuum.

    He's a smart individual, he'll have the relevant stats available, but ultimately I'm more interested in his knowledge of baseball which seems to be high; his intelligence, also high. And his judgment and leadership as a manager, which we'll see.

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  3. #317
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Report: Reds Hire Bryan Price

    Quote Originally Posted by malcontent View Post
    Interesting point about Marshall-as-LOOGY.

    I'm also very concerned that Marshall may not be 100% for 2014.

    With Chapman potentially headed to the rotation, Marshall's injury is one more reason why I would try to pry Alex Wood away from the Braves if possible. Even if they bring back Parra.
    No way do I want to watch that funky windup anymore than the few times a year that I see the Braves play.
    Can't win with 'em

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  4. #318
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    Re: Report: Reds Hire Bryan Price

    The exact quote was:

    ""I've had a chance to watch a lot of good managers. We have to use statistical analysis to understand parts of the game, but you have to understand what kind of talent the team has.""

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  6. #319
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    Re: Report: Reds Hire Bryan Price

    Just in case anyone missed it you can watch the full press conference here:

    http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/201...ss-conference/

  7. #320
    malingered here too long malcontent's Avatar
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    Re: Report: Reds Hire Bryan Price

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    No way do I want to watch that funky windup anymore than the few times a year that I see the Braves play.
    I just watched a couple clips...and now I think that there is probably no way the Braves would include him, unless the Reds sent more than Phillips.

    Nasty stuff. The delivery is definitely funky but I think it contributes.

    Phillips and Marshall for Uggla, Wood and a suspect. Think of the karmic balance of a second Wood/Marshall trade.
    Last edited by malcontent; 10-23-2013 at 01:37 PM.
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  8. #321
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    Re: Report: Reds Hire Bryan Price

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclone792 View Post
    I'm just going to make an observation, and it's something I've noticed with the Reds fan base since I can remember. It seems that once a player signs a long term, high salaried contract, no matter who that player is, there is a certain segment of the fan base that automatically just turns on that player.

    In 2009, Joey Votto made barely over $437,000. Still lots of money by "regular people" standards, but pocket change for big league stars. He hits the field and puts up a 156 OPS+ for the Reds, blossoming into their best star player and not a single Reds fan had anything negative to say about him. Whenever he'd come up to the plate in a big situation, the ovations were loud and thunderous. Sometimes he'd come through, and GABP would explode. Sometimes he wouldn't come through, and fans reacted with in an "aw shucks" kind of manner.

    The following season, 2010, is much the same, except the ovations are even louder. Votto has a bit better season, he leads the Reds to their first playoff appearance in 15 years and he couldn't do a thing wrong.

    Fast forward to 2013. He puts up the second highest on-base percentage of his career. His OPS+ of 154 is nearly identical to his 2009 figure. Not to mention he played in all 162 games and piled up 726 plate appearances. Just absolutely loads of production. You could say his power numbers are down, but I'll counter that offensive production is down across the league. You don't produce in a vacuum - you produce relative to your peers. Joey Votto in 2013, despite being blasted by a segment of the media and fan base, was a more productive hitter than Joey Votto in 2009 when he couldn't do a thing wrong.

    But the only difference is a big contract with a lot more money. That's it. Now suddenly if he isn't money each and every plate appearance, he hears the wrath. The same thing has happened to other players. Once they get that contract and the high salary, certain segments of the media and fan base suddenly turn on the player. They're suddenly expected to be invincible, better than they ever were. They get blasted for being the same exact player and person that they were four years previously when no one batted an eye.

    I know what the argument is: well he makes all this money so he should change, blah blah blah. That's hogwash, and we all know it. Let a star player who produces much the same as he's always produced be, and let that same guy be the same guy off the field that he's always been. Money or a big contract shouldn't change any of that.

    Sometimes I wonder if certain Reds fans and certain members of the media wished that Votto would have just walked out the door via free agency. Maybe that's what Shin Soo Choo and Homer Bailey really need to do too. Because it's an absolute guarantee that if they stick around with a big time contract, the howling about their shortcomings and bad stretches in upcoming seasons will reach an all-time high.

    Some people in the Reds media and some Reds fans just need to get over themselves.
    There is some truth to this - in virtually every market. The idea that Cincinnati is somehow unique on this front continues to make me laugh. Perhaps Cinci is a bit different being a two sport town with an intense focus and local passion on the Reds. On second thought, the banana phone contingent may be unique...

    Votto has the 4th largest contract in pro sports history in one of the smallest markets. Fame doesn't come without expectations and controversy some fair most unfair.

    I think Price will be terrific for Votto. Hopefully he'll set the record straight with some of the media blowhards that don't get the value of Votto's offensive production. I don't think Baker helped Joey out much at all - in fact I'd say his comments only added fuel to the fire.

    I'm actually pretty shocked by the comments that have been said/not said with regard to the dismissal of Baker (seemed to be no surprise to the players) and the hiring and ringing endorsements of Price before and after the hire. Price continues to be positioned as the anti-Baker.

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  10. #322
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Report: Reds Hire Bryan Price

    Quote Originally Posted by OneManBand View Post
    3 Reds in the top 8 and still had issues producing runs in games that mattered
    It's almost like the other 5 hitters in the lineup matter too.

    I think as sports fans our expectations have been affected by football and basketball. In both of those sports, the most critical element of strategy is the distribution of opportunities. And because opportunities can be distributed at will, it allows for superstar players to have outsized impact. In baseball, opportunities are more or less fixed. Each player bats just once through the lineup. Sure, because of the length of the season, individual players can differentiate themselves to a superstar level. But within a given game, no one player can make the difference.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 10-23-2013 at 01:30 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  11. #323
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Report: Reds Hire Bryan Price

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    Worst = least productive
    Again, you are not answering my question.

    I said a big part of the stat philosphy was ordering the lineup by OBP, with OPS in the 3rd and 4th slot and you basically said I was wrong.

    Thus, I am asking you to explain how the stat philosphy of a lineup works (in your opinion).

    Just saying "Don't put the worst two hitters first" is not very precise, unless you define worst. If it's purely stats based, shouldn't there be something close to a recipe that we could've applied to the Reds lineup? Or at least your opinion of how it should be done?
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  12. #324
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    Re: Report: Reds Hire Bryan Price

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    It's almost like the other 5 hitters in the lineup matter too.

    I think as sports fans our expectations have been affected by football and basketball. In both of those sports, the most critical element of strategy is the distribution of opportunities. And because opportunities can be distributed at will, it allows for superstar players to have outsized impact. In baseball, opportunities are more or less fixed. Each player bats just once through the lineup. Sure, because of the length of the season, individual players can differentiate themselves to a superstar level. But within a given game, no one player can make the difference.
    So in essence the Runs Created weren't actually created?

  13. #325
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    Re: Report: Reds Hire Bryan Price

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    Again, you are not answering my question.

    I said a big part of the stat philosphy was ordering the lineup by OBP, with OPS in the 3rd and 4th slot and you basically said I was wrong.

    Thus, I am asking you to explain how the stat philosphy of a lineup works (in your opinion).

    Just saying "Don't put the worst two hitters first" is not very precise, unless you define worst. If it's purely stats based, shouldn't there be something close to a recipe that we could've applied to the Reds lineup? Or at least your opinion of how it should be done?
    http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/200...your-lineup-by

    *Lead-Off*

    The old-school book says to put a speedy guy up top. Power isn't important, and OBP is nice, but comes second to speed.

    The Book says OBP is king. The lead-off hitter comes to bat only 36% of the time with a runner on base, versus 44% of the time for the next lowest spot in the lineup, so why waste homeruns? The lead-off hitter also comes to the plate the most times per game, so why give away outs? As for speed, stealing bases is most valuable in front of singles hitters, and since the top of the order is going to be full of power hitters, they're not as important. The lead-off hitter is one of the best three hitters on the team, the guy without homerun power. Speed is nice, as this batter will have plenty of chances to run the bases with good hitters behind him.

    *The Two Hole*

    The old-school book says to put a bat-control guy here. Not a great hitter, but someone who can move the lead-off hitter over for one of the next two hitters to drive in.

    The Books says the #2 hitter comes to bat in situations about as important as the #3 hitter, but more often. That means the #2 hitter should be better than the #3 guy, and one of the best three hitters overall. And since he bats with the bases empty more often than the hitters behind him, he should be a high-OBP player. Doesn't sound like someone who should be sacrificing, does it?

  14. #326
    Pre-tty, pre-tty good!! MWM's Avatar
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    Re: Report: Reds Hire Bryan Price

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    So in essence the Runs Created weren't actually created?
    That's clever and all, but you do know that the word "created" is used in a different context than you are trying to imply. "Contribution to overall runs scored" isn't as easy to remember as runs created.
    Grape works as a soda. Sort of as a gum. I wonder why it doesn't work as a pie. Grape pie? There's no grape pie. - Larry David

  15. #327
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    Re: Report: Reds Hire Bryan Price

    Quote Originally Posted by joshua View Post
    The exact quote was:

    ""I've had a chance to watch a lot of good managers. We have to use statistical analysis to understand parts of the game, but you have to understand what kind of talent the team has.""
    There are all sorts of baseball statistics. That can pretty much mean what you want it to mean.

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  17. #328
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    Re: Report: Reds Hire Bryan Price

    Another way to look at things is to order the batting slots by the leveraged value of the out. In plain English (sort of), we want to know how costly making an out is by each lineup position, based on the base-out situations they most often find themselves in, and then weighted by how often each lineup spot comes to the plate. Here's how the lineup spots rank in the importance of avoiding outs:

    #1, #4, #2, #5, #3, #6, #7, #8, #9

    So, you want your best three hitters to hit in the #1, #4, and #2 spots. Distribute them so OBP is higher in the order and SLG is lower. Then place your fourth and fifth best hitters, with the #5 spot usually seeing the better hitter, unless he's a high-homerun guy. Then place your four remaining hitters in decreasing order of overall hitting ability, with basestealers ahead of singles hitters. Finally, stop talking like the lineup is a make-or-break decision.

  18. #329
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Report: Reds Hire Bryan Price

    Quote Originally Posted by MWM View Post
    That's clever and all, but you do know that the word "created" is used in a different context than you are trying to imply. "Contribution to overall runs scored" isn't as easy to remember as runs created.
    To me this is where there is a big disconnect. Joey Votto did not create that many runs, in order to create that many runs it means those runs actually came to fruition. So you can throw out "Runs Created" stats all you want, but when put into practice they are lacking.

    I don't want a manager focusing on stats like RC or WAR or any of the advanced metrics that try to tell you how "valuable" a player is. That is fodder for the GM and the front office when they are making player personal decisions. I want a manager to keep the amount of information that he uses on a game to game basis minimal. Useful stuff for a game manager would be OBP, SLG, AVG in setting lineups. Also knowing range factors as well as tendencies of opposing hitters when setting the defense and then taking into consideration splits for relievers and hitters against relievers.

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  20. #330
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    Re: Report: Reds Hire Bryan Price

    Worried about Offense?

    Count times on base, look at outs generate look at slugging above average

    Code:
    CINCINNATI REDS
    SEASON
    2013
    Non P
    OUTS displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    SLG vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    
    REACHED BASE                    RB      OUTS      SLG    
    1    Joey Votto                  316      428     .090   
    2    Shin-Soo Choo               300      426     .062   
    3    Jay Bruce                   229      479     .077   
    4    Brandon Phillips            205      483    -.005   
    5    Todd Frazier                188      431     .006   
    6    Zack Cozart                 172      464    -.020   
    7    Devin Mesoraco              101      262    -.038   
    8    Xavier Paul                  81      165     .001   
    9    Ryan Hanigan                 79      189    -.139   
    10   Derrick Robinson             68      153    -.078   
    11   Chris Heisey                 67      181     .015   
    12   Jack Hannahan                51      116    -.113   
    13   Ryan Ludwick                 41      106    -.075   
    14   Cesar Izturis                36      111    -.129   
    T15  Corky Miller                 15       27    -.001   
    T15  Donald Lutz                  15       44    -.090   
    17   Billy Hamilton                9       14     .073   
    18   Henry Rodriguez               2        8    -.290   
    19   Neftali Soto                  1       13    -.401


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