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Thread: Report: Reds Hire Bryan Price

  1. #331
    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Report: Reds Hire Bryan Price

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    Again, you are not answering my question.

    I said a big part of the stat philosphy was ordering the lineup by OBP, with OPS in the 3rd and 4th slot and you basically said I was wrong.

    Thus, I am asking you to explain how the stat philosphy of a lineup works (in your opinion).

    Just saying "Don't put the worst two hitters first" is not very precise, unless you define worst. If it's purely stats based, shouldn't there be something close to a recipe that we could've applied to the Reds lineup? Or at least your opinion of how it should be done?
    Your question, I thought, was how do I define "worst." So I did. I think others have now responded at length to your larger query, so I will refrain from repeating their points unless there is something else you are missing.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

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  3. #332
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    Re: Report: Reds Hire Bryan Price

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    To me this is where there is a big disconnect. Joey Votto did not create that many runs, in order to create that many runs it means those runs actually came to fruition. So you can throw out "Runs Created" stats all you want, but when put into practice they are lacking.

    I don't want a manager focusing on stats like RC or WAR or any of the advanced metrics that try to tell you how "valuable" a player is. That is fodder for the GM and the front office when they are making player personal decisions. I want a manager to keep the amount of information that he uses on a game to game basis minimal. Useful stuff for a game manager would be OBP, SLG, AVG in setting lineups. Also knowing range factors as well as tendencies of opposing hitters when setting the defense and then taking into consideration splits for relievers and hitters against relievers.
    I would want a manager to understand the value of a hitter in the most comprehensive way possible so he can maximize his usage over the course of the season. Then, you don't start seeing your best hitter alter his approach toward the end of the season because his manager overvalues "clutch" and "BA with RISP" and RBI and has been whispering in his ear to "be a little more aggressive and less selective to drive in more of them runs." I fear that is what happened to Votto as the season wore on and the pressure to produce in a certain way (RISP clutch hits) was being communicated by his manager.

    So, I think a comprehensive understanding of player value and HOW he creates his value, which is derived from a comprehensive understanding of advanced measurements, adds value to your field manager. It will allow him to relax when he needs to and let guys do their job the way they do it and to put guys in the best position to succeed more times than spitting tobacco and kicking benches in the dugout will garner the desired results.
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  4. #333
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    Re: Report: Reds Hire Bryan Price

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    To me this is where there is a big disconnect. Joey Votto did not create that many runs, in order to create that many runs it means those runs actually came to fruition. So you can throw out "Runs Created" stats all you want, but when put into practice they are lacking.

    I don't want a manager focusing on stats like RC or WAR or any of the advanced metrics that try to tell you how "valuable" a player is. That is fodder for the GM and the front office when they are making player personal decisions. I want a manager to keep the amount of information that he uses on a game to game basis minimal. Useful stuff for a game manager would be OBP, SLG, AVG in setting lineups. Also knowing range factors as well as tendencies of opposing hitters when setting the defense and then taking into consideration splits for relievers and hitters against relievers.
    I don't understand at all why you would privilege some stats and not others. If you are trying to understand how offense works, why close off some stats and not others? Price is a smart guy; he won't be overwhelmed.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  5. #334
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Report: Reds Hire Bryan Price

    My preferences on #2 hitters:

    1. Low DP numbers. Assuming there's some OB coming from the leadoff slot, I don't want my #2 hitter quickly converting that into two outs. I don't really care about "bat control," but I care about that.

    2. OB or Power/Speed. Ideally you'd have both. Chase Headley at his peak was pretty much my ideal #2 hitter. However, assuming you can't have everything, then I want one of those two things. The OB is even better if it comes attached to power or speed, but OB is a good thing to have on its own. Sometimes it can be difficult to find OB that doesn't come attached to DPs. Joe Mauer is a case in point. This year he posted a .404 OB with only 7 DPs. That's fantastic. Last year his .416 OB came attached to 23 DPs (which would have been like knocking 37 points off his OB - making the case to hit Mauer at #1 rather than #2).

    Of course, most teams don't have the luxury of multiple high OB players to choose from. So if you're sifting through sub-.350 OB options, how do you choose? That's were power/speed comes into play. A guy like Carlos Gomez may not be on as often as others, but he's got TBs in his bat and rocket fuel in his feet. He can make things happen. In a perfect world I'm hitting him 3rd (or lower) behind guys with more OB, but this isn't a perfect world. Gomez certainly would have been a better #2 hitter than Jean Segura last season.
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  6. #335
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Report: Reds Hire Bryan Price

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    I don't understand at all why you would privilege some stats and not others. If you are trying to understand how offense works, why close off some stats and not others? Price is a smart guy; he won't be overwhelmed.
    How is knowing a guy's WAR going to effect a decision made in game?

  7. #336
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    Report: Reds Hire Bryan Price

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    How is knowing a guy's WAR going to effect a decision made in game?
    Were we talking about WAR? I thought the discussion was about RC.

    In any case, I don't see any reason to be prescriptive about which stats a manager looks at. I would hope Price is a guy who is open to them all.
    Last edited by RedEye; 10-23-2013 at 04:41 PM.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

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    Re: Report: Reds Hire Bryan Price

    Quote Originally Posted by AmarilloRed View Post
    There are all sorts of baseball statistics. That can pretty much mean what you want it to mean.
    No. Price is an intelligent and educated guy. When he says "statistical analysis," he knows it involves a lot more than BA, RBIs and pitcher wins. Whether he's got thoughts on wOBA and RC+ we don't know. Maybe he likes a more classically analytical approach (breaking stats into more elemental parts rather than looking for one number to rule them all).

    Yet no one says "statistical analysis" unless they mean assessing performance and testing hypotheses using statistical methods. Just because he added that caveat that you don't make every managerial decision based on a spreadsheet, it doesn't erase that he just came out and said directly that statistical analysis is a major part of his decision making process.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

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  10. #338
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Report: Reds Hire Bryan Price

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    Were we talking about WAR? I thought the discussion was about RC.
    How is RC going to effect a decision made in game?

  11. #339
    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
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    Report: Reds Hire Bryan Price

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    How is RC going to effect a decision made in game?
    Maybe I misunderstood you... but RC should def help a manager understand who his more holistically productive players are -- and potentially who to bat where and who to play when.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  12. #340
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Report: Reds Hire Bryan Price

    Quote Originally Posted by junkhead View Post
    http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/200...your-lineup-by

    *Lead-Off*

    The old-school book says to put a speedy guy up top. Power isn't important, and OBP is nice, but comes second to speed.

    The Book says OBP is king. The lead-off hitter comes to bat only 36% of the time with a runner on base, versus 44% of the time for the next lowest spot in the lineup, so why waste homeruns? The lead-off hitter also comes to the plate the most times per game, so why give away outs? As for speed, stealing bases is most valuable in front of singles hitters, and since the top of the order is going to be full of power hitters, they're not as important. The lead-off hitter is one of the best three hitters on the team, the guy without homerun power. Speed is nice, as this batter will have plenty of chances to run the bases with good hitters behind him.

    *The Two Hole*

    The old-school book says to put a bat-control guy here. Not a great hitter, but someone who can move the lead-off hitter over for one of the next two hitters to drive in.

    The Books says the #2 hitter comes to bat in situations about as important as the #3 hitter, but more often. That means the #2 hitter should be better than the #3 guy, and one of the best three hitters overall. And since he bats with the bases empty more often than the hitters behind him, he should be a high-OBP player. Doesn't sound like someone who should be sacrificing, does it?
    Ok, thanks.
    I think Price is going to struggle to put a lineup out that people will not complain about though.

    According to the link above. Votto should hit #2?
    If Choo is not resigned, we aren't going to have a high OBP guy to leadoff.
    The point is, people complained about Dusty's lineups, but last year Dusty really didn't have a #2 hitter according to the Book, unless he moved Votto there.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  13. #341
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    Re: Report: Reds Hire Bryan Price

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    How is RC going to effect a decision made in game?
    So that is all the manager needs to have a handle on? A decision he needs to make in a game?

    He doesn't need to have a full-orbed view of his personnel? Doesn't he need to have a complete view of his player to make good in game decisions? lineups? pitching changes? pinch hitting? defensive changes?

    I don't know why you would want to hamstring your manager by having him consider less information and limited knowledge base. It would seem to put him at a competitive disadvantage----the very complaint I heard about Dusty during his entire tenure.
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  14. #342
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Report: Reds Hire Bryan Price

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    Your question, I thought, was how do I define "worst." So I did. I think others have now responded at length to your larger query, so I will refrain from repeating their points unless there is something else you are missing.
    Well, I said "Highest OBP on top of the order, with OPS in the 3rd and 4th"
    That's pretty much what Junkhead said, although his quotes were slightly different and more detailed.

    But you said No and condescended like this

    No. He's supposed to avoid putting his absolute worst hitters in the first few slots. It's not really complicated.
    Apparently, it is too complicated for you to talk about, or to define what "worse" is.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  15. #343
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Report: Reds Hire Bryan Price

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    To me this is where there is a big disconnect. Joey Votto did not create that many runs, in order to create that many runs it means those runs actually came to fruition. So you can throw out "Runs Created" stats all you want, but when put into practice they are lacking.
    Yes and no. You're 100% right that RC and actual runs do not have a 1:1 relationship. At the team level RC/27 is almost always higher than actual the actual RPG. The problem goes to something RMR mentioned earlier: the non-working parts of the lineup have to bat too.

    Votto doesn't create runs in a vacuum. Yet he is doing the things that create the opportunity to score runs. The key for a manager is to wring out as much as possible from Votto's theoretical run production. BTW, at the macro level the Reds did pretty well on this front in 2013.

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    I don't want a manager focusing on stats like RC or WAR or any of the advanced metrics that try to tell you how "valuable" a player is. That is fodder for the GM and the front office when they are making player personal decisions. I want a manager to keep the amount of information that he uses on a game to game basis minimal. Useful stuff for a game manager would be OBP, SLG, AVG in setting lineups. Also knowing range factors as well as tendencies of opposing hitters when setting the defense and then taking into consideration splits for relievers and hitters against relievers.
    Mostly agreed here. Managers should be using finer grained data to answer more specific questions.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  16. #344
    Big Red Machine RedsBaron's Avatar
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    Re: Report: Reds Hire Bryan Price

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post

    2. OB or Power/Speed. Ideally you'd have both. Chase Headley at his peak was pretty much my ideal #2 hitter.
    Joe Morgan in 1975 was my ideal #2 hitter. Joe hit .327 with a .466 OBP, .508 SLG, and 67 stolen bases in 77 attempts.
    "Hey...Dad. Wanna Have A Catch?" Kevin Costner in "Field Of Dreams."

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  18. #345
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    Re: Report: Reds Hire Bryan Price

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    Ok, thanks.
    I think Price is going to struggle to put a lineup out that people will not complain about though.

    According to the link above. Votto should hit #2?
    If Choo is not resigned, we aren't going to have a high OBP guy to leadoff.
    The point is, people complained about Dusty's lineups, but last year Dusty really didn't have a #2 hitter according to the Book, unless he moved Votto there.
    Good points. And if he moved Votto to #2, then he didn't really have a #3 hitter.

    I thought Paul/Robinson was his best option for the #2 hole for the bulk of the season, but that would have drawn complaints too.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.


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