Report: Reds Hire Bryan Price

[bucksfan2]

I don't understand at all why you would privilege some stats and not others. If you are trying to understand how offense works, why close off some stats and not others? Price is a smart guy; he won't be overwhelmed.

How is knowing a guy's WAR going to effect a decision made in game?

[RedEye]

How is knowing a guy's WAR going to effect a decision made in game?

Were we talking about WAR? I thought the discussion was about RC.

In any case, I don't see any reason to be prescriptive about which stats a manager looks at. I would hope Price is a guy who is open to them all.

[M2]

There are all sorts of baseball statistics. That can pretty much mean what you want it to mean.

No. Price is an intelligent and educated guy. When he says "statistical analysis," he knows it involves a lot more than BA, RBIs and pitcher wins. Whether he's got thoughts on wOBA and RC+ we don't know. Maybe he likes a more classically analytical approach (breaking stats into more elemental parts rather than looking for one number to rule them all).

Yet no one says "statistical analysis" unless they mean assessing performance and testing hypotheses using statistical methods. Just because he added that caveat that you don't make every managerial decision based on a spreadsheet, it doesn't erase that he just came out and said directly that statistical analysis is a major part of his decision making process.

[bucksfan2]

Were we talking about WAR? I thought the discussion was about RC.

How is RC going to effect a decision made in game?

[RedEye]

How is RC going to effect a decision made in game?

Maybe I misunderstood you... but RC should def help a manager understand who his more holistically productive players are -- and potentially who to bat where and who to play when.

[REDREAD]

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/200...your-lineup-by

*Lead-Off*

The old-school book says to put a speedy guy up top. Power isn't important, and OBP is nice, but comes second to speed.

The Book says OBP is king. The lead-off hitter comes to bat only 36% of the time with a runner on base, versus 44% of the time for the next lowest spot in the lineup, so why waste homeruns? The lead-off hitter also comes to the plate the most times per game, so why give away outs? As for speed, stealing bases is most valuable in front of singles hitters, and since the top of the order is going to be full of power hitters, they're not as important. The lead-off hitter is one of the best three hitters on the team, the guy without homerun power. Speed is nice, as this batter will have plenty of chances to run the bases with good hitters behind him.

*The Two Hole*

The old-school book says to put a bat-control guy here. Not a great hitter, but someone who can move the lead-off hitter over for one of the next two hitters to drive in.

The Books says the #2 hitter comes to bat in situations about as important as the #3 hitter, but more often. That means the #2 hitter should be better than the #3 guy, and one of the best three hitters overall. And since he bats with the bases empty more often than the hitters behind him, he should be a high-OBP player. Doesn't sound like someone who should be sacrificing, does it?

Ok, thanks.
I think Price is going to struggle to put a lineup out that people will not complain about though.

According to the link above. Votto should hit #2?
If Choo is not resigned, we aren't going to have a high OBP guy to leadoff.
The point is, people complained about Dusty's lineups, but last year Dusty really didn't have a #2 hitter according to the Book, unless he moved Votto there.

[traderumor]

How is RC going to effect a decision made in game?

So that is all the manager needs to have a handle on? A decision he needs to make in a game?

He doesn't need to have a full-orbed view of his personnel? Doesn't he need to have a complete view of his player to make good in game decisions? lineups? pitching changes? pinch hitting? defensive changes?

I don't know why you would want to hamstring your manager by having him consider less information and limited knowledge base. It would seem to put him at a competitive disadvantage----the very complaint I heard about Dusty during his entire tenure.

[REDREAD]

Your question, I thought, was how do I define "worst." So I did. I think others have now responded at length to your larger query, so I will refrain from repeating their points unless there is something else you are missing.

Well, I said "Highest OBP on top of the order, with OPS in the 3rd and 4th"
That's pretty much what Junkhead said, although his quotes were slightly different and more detailed.

But you said No and condescended like this

No. He's supposed to avoid putting his absolute worst hitters in the first few slots. It's not really complicated.

Apparently, it is too complicated for you to talk about, or to define what "worse" is.

[M2]

To me this is where there is a big disconnect. Joey Votto did not create that many runs, in order to create that many runs it means those runs actually came to fruition. So you can throw out "Runs Created" stats all you want, but when put into practice they are lacking.

Yes and no. You're 100% right that RC and actual runs do not have a 1:1 relationship. At the team level RC/27 is almost always higher than actual the actual RPG. The problem goes to something RMR mentioned earlier: the non-working parts of the lineup have to bat too.

Votto doesn't create runs in a vacuum. Yet he is doing the things that create the opportunity to score runs. The key for a manager is to wring out as much as possible from Votto's theoretical run production. BTW, at the macro level the Reds did pretty well on this front in 2013.

I don't want a manager focusing on stats like RC or WAR or any of the advanced metrics that try to tell you how "valuable" a player is. That is fodder for the GM and the front office when they are making player personal decisions. I want a manager to keep the amount of information that he uses on a game to game basis minimal. Useful stuff for a game manager would be OBP, SLG, AVG in setting lineups. Also knowing range factors as well as tendencies of opposing hitters when setting the defense and then taking into consideration splits for relievers and hitters against relievers.

Mostly agreed here. Managers should be using finer grained data to answer more specific questions.

[RedsBaron]

2. OB or Power/Speed. Ideally you'd have both. Chase Headley at his peak was pretty much my ideal #2 hitter.

Joe Morgan in 1975 was my ideal #2 hitter. Joe hit .327 with a .466 OBP, .508 SLG, and 67 stolen bases in 77 attempts.

[M2]

Ok, thanks.
I think Price is going to struggle to put a lineup out that people will not complain about though.

According to the link above. Votto should hit #2?
If Choo is not resigned, we aren't going to have a high OBP guy to leadoff.
The point is, people complained about Dusty's lineups, but last year Dusty really didn't have a #2 hitter according to the Book, unless he moved Votto there.

Good points. And if he moved Votto to #2, then he didn't really have a #3 hitter.

I thought Paul/Robinson was his best option for the #2 hole for the bulk of the season, but that would have drawn complaints too.

[malcontent]

Joe Morgan in 1975 was my ideal #2 hitter. Joe hit .327 with a .466 OBP, .508 SLG, and 67 stolen bases in 77 attempts.

OK. Say the Reds sign Choo, move him to LF, and start Hamilton in CF.

Why shouldn't the Reds bat Hamilton #2, between Choo and Votto?

[M2]

OK. Say the Reds sign Choo, move him to LF, and start Hamilton in CF.

Why shouldn't the Reds bat Hamilton #2, between Choo and Votto?

What's Hamilton's OB going to be? If it's north of .340, then by all means hit him up high in the lineup. Though I'd rather see him hitting in front of Choo/Votto to exploit all the pitches they take and to force pitchers to feed them more fastballs.

[REDREAD]

Good points. And if he moved Votto to #2, then he didn't really have a #3 hitter.

I thought Paul/Robinson was his best option for the #2 hole for the bulk of the season, but that would have drawn complaints too.

Yes. I just hope people realize that at this point, Price has the same players.
If Choo leaves, the talent pool to create lineups probably shrinks. No amount of "old school" or "SABR" tweaking is going to create an optimal lineup. There will always be a compromise.

[malcontent]

What's Hamilton's OB going to be? If it's north of .340, then by all means hit him up high in the lineup. Though I'd rather see him hitting in front of Choo/Votto to exploit all the pitches they take and to force pitchers to feed them more fastballs.

I was thinking about avoiding the GIDP with Choo on 1B.

Leadoff or #2, I dunno. But I want to stay optimistic that what we saw is the real deal, and that his OBP won't relegate him to the bottom of the lineup.

The other weird thing to consider is how the common Votto BB or Choo BB/HBP devalues the Hamilton SB.

Maybe he should hit lower.