The Rally Onion wants 150 fans before Opening Day.
So, I'd need someone to blow my doors off with an offer. Otherwise you can move him in the summer or just take the draft pick when he walks after the season. I think it makes sense to shop him, but I wouldn't feel compelled to sell him (which is my position on a slew of Reds players at the moment).
Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong
I'm witchcrafting everybody.
you´ll need 6 starters without a doubt...
with arroyo our workhorse who´s never injured is gone...
cueto, latos and cingrani had injuries this season and I´m not sure about cueto´s health going on...
but for me the biggest question is chapman as starter, I doubt that he would last till the all star break => 6 starters is not very much (with those questionmarks)
However, one alternative that hasn't been discussed all that much - what about trading Leake? The MLBTR analysis from yesterday implied that some teams may see more trade value in Leake because he is under control for two years (and cheaper).
IF there is truth to that, I'd look to deal Leake to that team, hoping its the Rangers and that we could extract Profar, but fully realizing that is unlikely. IF the Reds do move Phillips, they may be able to afford to keep both Bailey and Latos (as well as Cueto, Chapman et al) and still sign Choo.
A rotation of Latos-Chapman-Bailey-Cingrani-Cueto with Stephenson knocking on the door for the next 3+ years would be really, really nasty.
One unfortunate byproduct of naming Price as manager is it probably lessens the chance that Arroyo gets a qualifying offer.
Two things. First, signing Arroyo would allow one of the other starters to be traded. Second, Stephenson is very close and i expect to see him up in 2014. Perhaps he could spell Chapman to ease Chapman's workload and ease Stephenson into the majors.
Sabermetrics can be boiled down to this simple truism: A batter's goal is to extend the inning. Extend enough innings and you're going to score runs. Extend more innings than your opponent and you're going to score more runs than him.
The long view does favor keeping Bailey. The draft pick will come in 2015. The best rotation they could put out there in 2014 would likely include Bailey. They intend on winning it all in 2014. That outcome has a huge upside long term. Any return for Bailey has to uproot the concern for winning in 2014 and be worth more than a top 45 pick in the draft.
I do, however, think that there are at least 3 or 4 affordable arms in FA that could potentially sub for Bailey (or Leake). You just have to gamble on the right one.
I don't really want to see Stephenson rushed to Cincy before September unless there are a lot of injuries AND he is putting up silly numbers in AA and AAA. They really don't need him to be.
And I agree on Arroyo, which is 1/2 of the reason why I want to see him get a qualifying offer - the other 1/2 being to get the draft pick.
If they do offer Arroyo, I think it's a sure sign Brandon is gone. There has to be enough money to sign him. And as a general point, there has to be enough money to ensure the pitching stays near the top of the game. That is the key to this run of success, bottom line.
If Arroyo and Bailey came back, you'd have two players pitching for contracts. Good with me.
Perhaps trade Leake to LAA for Kendrick.
Six bona fide starters is a big luxury financially. Unless the Reds add an inexpensive sixth. But the current six with Bailey, Latos, Chapman, Leake, Cingrani and Cueto is a huge luxury IMO.
I guess you could stash one of them, maybe Cingrani, in the bullpen but then you lose the cost effectiveness of having him in the rotation while still cheap.
If you want six starters, it's more financially viable to add a relatively inexpensive pitcher to be the sixth starter in waiting, with Cingrani in the rotation.
I don't think "keep all six" of the current crop is the likely outcome. Not if they all are slated to be starting pitchers. If Chapman stays at closer for awhile, then I can see it.
As for Arroyo if the qualifying offer is $14 million for 2014, which it is, I see it as very unlikely. Just too much money.
Last edited by Kc61; 10-22-2013 at 02:20 PM.
his biggest weapon is his velocity.
with 100 pitches per inning (=> a big drop on the radar gun) , multiple times through the order and sometimes problems to find the strike zone with his slider he´ll have a hard time to get the players out..
I just don´t see him succeeding as a starter... I would be very happy if I´m wrong.. but I doubt it => if they use as they have in the past he´s to expensive without making a big impact, use him more often from the pen or try to trade him
I can understand that most user want to see him as starter, but I can´t think he´ll be effective..
"I don’t know the key to success, but the key to failure is trying to please everybody".