2014 Starting Rotation Under Price

[Sea Ray]

I think you gotta put all of them on the block and see what we can get for one of them. If we get offered a key guy that can fill a hole in our starting lineup then that's the guy who gets dealt. Having 6 starters is a luxury we can't afford with holes in our lineup and bullpen (closer).

[Wonderful Monds]

I'm pretty much completely against trading Bailey. We had injury problems this year in our rotation that had to be filled by the likes of Greg Reynolds and that other guy from Louisville who was so bad whose name I've forgotten and don't want to remember.

Latos just had surgery too. Arroyo is probably gone. Can you imagine what 2013 would have looked like without Bailey there?

The only consideration I would make is Profar.

[Caveat Emperor]

Having six guys is a Good Thing. For various reasons.

Reason #1: Greg Reynolds.

[reds44]

I understand people saying move Cueto because of his injury history, but Bailey is coming off back to back sub 3.7 ERA seasons, and posted the best K/BB and H/9 of his career last year. I think he has huge value on the trade market right now.

Cueto's signed for 2 years/20 mil, so if he stays healthy (obviously big if), that's a really affordable contract. The Reds could always gamble and try to coax a healthy year out of Cueto and move him next year while trying to re-sign Homer, but that's a lot of gambles that could blow up in your face.

The biggest asset this team has to move to improve an offense that we all know needs help is Bailey.

It's almost a victim of circumstances more than anything.

Cingrani is young/cheap, Leake is cheap, Latos is "the guy", Cueto is signed at a good rate and his trade value is at an all-time low, and I would anticipate Chapman being a starter.

Then there's Homer who is good but about to get expensive. If you deal BP to Atlanta for Uggla/cash and the prospect is a near ready major league SP, there's your "insurance policy" for if/when a starter goes down. Plus you have Stephenson lurking.

[oregonred]

Reds need to either trade Chapman or put him immediately in the rotation. By midseason next year they'll know if the Chapman experiment works to make a call on dealing Bailey or signing others beyond Latos to extensions. Chapman is under control through 2016. Now or never...

[reds44]

You can't really wait to deal Bailey until the trade deadline next year if you have an idea for competing. First of all, teams don't get his draft pick if he walks in free agency. Secondly, the Reds should be in contention then and the only teams that will want to trade for him will be contending teams looking to deal prospects not ML talent.

[oregonred]

Even beyond Bailey, knowing what you have/don't have with Chapman as a starter may be critical for other LTC rotation decisions with the 2015 group.

[_Sir_Charles_]

I understand people saying move Cueto because of his injury history, but Bailey is coming off back to back sub 3.7 ERA seasons, and posted the best K/BB and H/9 of his career last year. I think he has huge value on the trade market right now.

I see where you're coming from, but I look at it from the completely opposite view. If Homer has the best trade market value...that's why you keep him. There's a reason he's got a high trade value. He's good, he's young, and he's got great upside.

Reds fans need to stop worrying about payroll and just focus on wanting the best players. No way, no how do I deal Bailey unless he's 100% sure that he doesn't want to stay. Otherwise, pay the man and lock him up!

And for the record, I'm not saying to trade Cueto because of injury history. I don't see him improving at all. I think he's peaked. And he's viewed as a #1 in the baseball world. I don't really view him that way.

[Kc61]

Then there's Homer who is good but about to get expensive. If you deal BP to Atlanta for Uggla/cash and the prospect is a near ready major league SP, there's your "insurance policy" for if/when a starter goes down. Plus you have Stephenson lurking.

I'm not sure this will happen, but it has a good chance. Not sure about the specific BP trade, but the idea of trading Bailey, getting a decent "sixth starter" in a trade, and getting Stephenson ready is one of the more likely scenarios.

One flip side is the Bailey/Price relationship. It could lead Homer to sign a deal the Reds feel is fair for the club. Reds could decide that Homer is such a sound mechanical pitcher that he will be healthy long term and is a good gamble.

If that happens, then another pitcher would likely be traded IMO. Or Chapman possibly stays at closer and everyone is retained.

[HokieRed]

Bailey, even if he wants to stay, will be too expensive to keep. And let's face it, he's good, but not great. He's a solid #3 starter who at times can look like a #1 starter. He's not worth a long term, $100M contract, which is what it will take to keep him.

It's a pretty easy decision for me.

Bailey as #3 starter? He had a better hits to innings pitched ratio than Latos; a better KO to W ratio; a better avg. against; and a better WHIP. Apart from those categories, Latos, whom most of RZ seem to consider a #1, was a better pitcher. I don't think Bailey is going to have any trouble getting a $100 million contract and he'd be nuts not to test the free agent waters, no matter how friendly he and Price are. In my view, the FO is either going to have to decide to trade him now or go all out in 2014. (And, incidentally, I don't see why Latos would decide to sign with the Reds after 2015 either.)

[757690]

Bailey as #3 starter? He had a better hits to innings pitched ratio than Latos; a better KO to W ratio; a better avg. against; and a better WHIP. Apart from those categories, Latos, whom most of RZ seem to consider a #1, was a better pitcher. I don't think Bailey is going to have any trouble getting a $100 million contract and he'd be nuts not to test the free agent waters, no matter how friendly he and Price are. In my view, the FO is either going to have to decide to trade him now or go all out in 2014. (And, incidentally, I don't see why Latos would decide to sign with the Reds after 2015 either.)

Latos wasn't much better, I agree. Both are somewhere between a two and a three. However, I can see Latos improving, I see Bailey as a pitcher whose reached his peak.

[Caveat Emperor]

You can't really wait to deal Bailey until the trade deadline next year if you have an idea for competing. First of all, teams don't get his draft pick if he walks in free agency. Secondly, the Reds should be in contention then and the only teams that will want to trade for him will be contending teams looking to deal prospects not ML talent.

Thirdly, Homer is going to command somewhere in the $6-8M range on an arbitration deal this season, and if you deal him now that money can go directly towards acquiring another player.

[bigredmechanism]

Digging up this old thread...

Now that we have Bailey signed and Latos just having surgery, what does everyone think the rotation will be? I'll be in attendance the fifth* game of the year and I am curious who I'll get to see pitch.

Edit to change second to fifth. 2nd game in the NY Mets series, 5th game overall.

[PepperJack]

Digging up this old thread...

Now that we have Bailey signed and Latos just having surgery, what does everyone think the rotation will be? I'll be in attendance the second game of the year and I am curious who I'll get to see pitch.

You'll have a better idea in a couple of weeks, but to guess right now, I would say opening day is likely Cueto, with Homer getting opening night.

But alot can change in the next 5 weeks or so.