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Thread: 2014 Starting Rotation Under Price

  1. #16
    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: 2014 Starting Rotation Under Price

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    On the other hand -- the Reds may worry about the injuries. Cueto, Cingrani. Even Latos now with the clean out surgery.
    I'm not worried about Latos but Cueto is a big worry and even Cingrani had his problems staying healthy last year. Not every year can be like 2012 when the starting 5 didn't miss any starts.
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  3. #17
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    Re: 2014 Starting Rotation Under Price

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    Having six guys is a Good Thing. For various reasons.
    If you go with Chapman in the rotation you may need 6. Chapman will not be able to go past about 140 innings next season if he starts all year. Also you always have a couple of injuries.
    Reds Fan Since 1971

  4. #18
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: 2014 Starting Rotation Under Price

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Bailey, even if he wants to stay, will be too expensive to keep. And let's face it, he's good, but not great. He's a solid #3 starter who at times can look like a #1 starter. He's not worth a long term, $100M contract, which is what it will take to keep him.

    It's a pretty easy decision for me.
    Agreed, though the thing the Reds have to weigh is whether it makes sense to keep Bailey for his free agent push in 2014. This might be the year he pitches more like a consistent #1 rather than what he's been to date (btw, good description).

    So, I'd need someone to blow my doors off with an offer. Otherwise you can move him in the summer or just take the draft pick when he walks after the season. I think it makes sense to shop him, but I wouldn't feel compelled to sell him (which is my position on a slew of Reds players at the moment).
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  5. #19
    "So Fla Red"
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    Re: 2014 Starting Rotation Under Price

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Agreed, though the thing the Reds have to weigh is whether it makes sense to keep Bailey for his free agent push in 2014. This might be the year he pitches more like a consistent #1 rather than what he's been to date (btw, good description).

    So, I'd need someone to blow my doors off with an offer. Otherwise you can move him in the summer or just take the draft pick when he walks after the season. I think it makes sense to shop him, but I wouldn't feel compelled to sell him (which is my position on a slew of Reds players at the moment).
    Agree. Bailey, Latos and Leake seem to be the durable arms. Need two of those three signed past FA years.

  6. #20
    Member tomnuetten's Avatar
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    Re: 2014 Starting Rotation Under Price

    youŽll need 6 starters without a doubt...

    with arroyo our workhorse whoŽs never injured is gone...
    cueto, latos and cingrani had injuries this season and IŽm not sure about cuetoŽs health going on...

    but for me the biggest question is chapman as starter, I doubt that he would last till the all star break => 6 starters is not very much (with those questionmarks)

  7. #21
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    Re: 2014 Starting Rotation Under Price

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Agreed, though the thing the Reds have to weigh is whether it makes sense to keep Bailey for his free agent push in 2014. This might be the year he pitches more like a consistent #1 rather than what he's been to date (btw, good description).

    So, I'd need someone to blow my doors off with an offer. Otherwise you can move him in the summer or just take the draft pick when he walks after the season. I think it makes sense to shop him, but I wouldn't feel compelled to sell him (which is my position on a slew of Reds players at the moment).
    Agree with this.

    However, one alternative that hasn't been discussed all that much - what about trading Leake? The MLBTR analysis from yesterday implied that some teams may see more trade value in Leake because he is under control for two years (and cheaper).

    IF there is truth to that, I'd look to deal Leake to that team, hoping its the Rangers and that we could extract Profar, but fully realizing that is unlikely. IF the Reds do move Phillips, they may be able to afford to keep both Bailey and Latos (as well as Cueto, Chapman et al) and still sign Choo.

    A rotation of Latos-Chapman-Bailey-Cingrani-Cueto with Stephenson knocking on the door for the next 3+ years would be really, really nasty.

    One unfortunate byproduct of naming Price as manager is it probably lessens the chance that Arroyo gets a qualifying offer.
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  8. #22
    OlafTheBlack Dan's Avatar
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    Re: 2014 Starting Rotation Under Price

    Two things. First, signing Arroyo would allow one of the other starters to be traded. Second, Stephenson is very close and i expect to see him up in 2014. Perhaps he could spell Chapman to ease Chapman's workload and ease Stephenson into the majors.
    Sabermetrics is this: A batter's goal is to extend the inning. Extend enough innings and you're going to score runs. Extend more innings than your opponent and you're going to score more runs than him.

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  10. #23
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    Re: 2014 Starting Rotation Under Price

    The long view does favor keeping Bailey. The draft pick will come in 2015. The best rotation they could put out there in 2014 would likely include Bailey. They intend on winning it all in 2014. That outcome has a huge upside long term. Any return for Bailey has to uproot the concern for winning in 2014 and be worth more than a top 45 pick in the draft.

    I do, however, think that there are at least 3 or 4 affordable arms in FA that could potentially sub for Bailey (or Leake). You just have to gamble on the right one.

  11. #24
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    Re: 2014 Starting Rotation Under Price

    Quote Originally Posted by Dan View Post
    Two things. First, signing Arroyo would allow one of the other starters to be traded. Second, Stephenson is very close and i expect to see him up in 2014. Perhaps he could spell Chapman to ease Chapman's workload and ease Stephenson into the majors.
    I could be on board with this idea - primarily if Stephenson doesn't come up until September 1 - at which point Chapman would be shut down.

    I don't really want to see Stephenson rushed to Cincy before September unless there are a lot of injuries AND he is putting up silly numbers in AA and AAA. They really don't need him to be.

    And I agree on Arroyo, which is 1/2 of the reason why I want to see him get a qualifying offer - the other 1/2 being to get the draft pick.
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  12. #25
    Member Norm Chortleton's Avatar
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    Re: 2014 Starting Rotation Under Price

    Quote Originally Posted by tomnuetten View Post
    youŽll need 6 starters without a doubt...

    with arroyo our workhorse whoŽs never injured is gone...
    cueto, latos and cingrani had injuries this season and IŽm not sure about cuetoŽs health going on...

    but for me the biggest question is chapman as starter, I doubt that he would last till the all star break => 6 starters is not very much (with those questionmarks)
    On what do you base this opinion?

  13. #26
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    Re: 2014 Starting Rotation Under Price

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    I could be on board with this idea - primarily if Stephenson doesn't come up until September 1 - at which point Chapman would be shut down.

    I don't really want to see Stephenson rushed to Cincy before September unless there are a lot of injuries AND he is putting up silly numbers in AA and AAA. They really don't need him to be.

    And I agree on Arroyo, which is 1/2 of the reason why I want to see him get a qualifying offer - the other 1/2 being to get the draft pick.

    If they do offer Arroyo, I think it's a sure sign Brandon is gone. There has to be enough money to sign him. And as a general point, there has to be enough money to ensure the pitching stays near the top of the game. That is the key to this run of success, bottom line.

    If Arroyo and Bailey came back, you'd have two players pitching for contracts. Good with me.

    Perhaps trade Leake to LAA for Kendrick.

  14. #27
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    Re: 2014 Starting Rotation Under Price

    Six bona fide starters is a big luxury financially. Unless the Reds add an inexpensive sixth. But the current six with Bailey, Latos, Chapman, Leake, Cingrani and Cueto is a huge luxury IMO.

    I guess you could stash one of them, maybe Cingrani, in the bullpen but then you lose the cost effectiveness of having him in the rotation while still cheap.

    If you want six starters, it's more financially viable to add a relatively inexpensive pitcher to be the sixth starter in waiting, with Cingrani in the rotation.

    I don't think "keep all six" of the current crop is the likely outcome. Not if they all are slated to be starting pitchers. If Chapman stays at closer for awhile, then I can see it.

    As for Arroyo if the qualifying offer is $14 million for 2014, which it is, I see it as very unlikely. Just too much money.
    Last edited by Kc61; 10-22-2013 at 02:20 PM.

  15. #28
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    Re: 2014 Starting Rotation Under Price

    Quote Originally Posted by Norm Chortleton View Post
    On what do you base this opinion?
    I still think he would be a (below) avg. starter... he has some mental issueŽs, if some of his throws are a little bit of he gets hit badly (arroyo badly)

    his biggest weapon is his velocity.
    with 100 pitches per inning (=> a big drop on the radar gun) , multiple times through the order and sometimes problems to find the strike zone with his slider heŽll have a hard time to get the players out..

    I just donŽt see him succeeding as a starter... I would be very happy if IŽm wrong.. but I doubt it => if they use as they have in the past heŽs to expensive without making a big impact, use him more often from the pen or try to trade him

    I can understand that most user want to see him as starter, but I canŽt think heŽll be effective..

  16. #29
    malingered here too long malcontent's Avatar
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    Re: 2014 Starting Rotation Under Price

    Quote Originally Posted by Norm Chortleton View Post
    It will be interesting. I'd loooooooove to have 2 LHs in the rotation. That would be a tremendous advantage.
    Agree. Two southpaws sound good.
    Everything is perfect, but there is a lot of room for improvement. --- Shunryu Suzuki-roshi

  17. #30
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    Re: 2014 Starting Rotation Under Price

    Quote Originally Posted by Norm Chortleton View Post
    It will be interesting. I'd loooooooove to have 2 LHs in the rotation. That would be a tremendous advantage.
    I'm betting that Latos and Cueto will battle next year to be the Reds third best starting pitcher. I think Cingrani and Chapman will battle it out to be the Reds Ace.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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