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Thread: 2014 - Status Quo

  1. #1
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    2014 - Status Quo

    To me, one of the first things to establish when entering the hot stove season is the status quo. I feel like you should know that before you start talking about trades or non tenders etc.

    I went through this exercise when I saw the first reports that maybe $100M/6 for Choo was the going rate. I wanted to know, where could the Reds cut to "find" that kind of dough.

    So, I thought it might be nice to put in context the gazillion off season threads. Here's what keeping the current club together looks like.

    To be clear: I am NOT advocating the status quo for 2014. I want to know what it would cost to do it though. Here tis.

    Code:
    C	Devin Mesoraco	$500,000 	league min
    1B	Joey Votto	$12,000,000 	contract
    2B	B Phillips	$11,000,000 	contract
    SS	Zack Cozart	$500,000 	league min
    3B	Todd Frazier	$500,000 	league min
    RF	Jay Bruce	$10,041,667 	contract
    CF	Billy Hamilton	$500,000 	league min
    LF	Ryan Ludwick	$8,500,000 	contract
    2C	Ryan Hanigan	$2,300,000 	arb guess
    UTIF	Jack Hannahan	$1,000,000 	contract
    UTIF	(utility guy)	$500,000 	league min
    OF	Chris Heisey	$1,700,000 	arb guess
    OF	Xavier Paul	$1,000,000 	arb guess
    			
    1SP	Johnny Cueto	$10,000,000 	contract
    2SP	Homer Bailey	$9,300,000 	arb guess
    3SP	Mat Latos	$7,250,000 	contract
    4SP	Mike Leake	$5,900,000 	arb guess
    5SP	Tony Cingrani	$500,000 	league min
    Closer	Aroldis Chapman	$7,600,000 	arb guess+bonus
    Setup1	Jon Broxton	$7,000,000 	contract
    Setup2	Sean Marshall	$5,500,000 	contract
    Middle	Alfredo Simon	$1,600,000 	arb guess
    Middle	Sam LeCure	$1,000,000 	arb guess
    Middle	Logan Ondrusek 	$1,350,000 	contract
    LOOGY	(bullpen guy)	$500,000 	league min
    			
    	TOTAL	$107,541,667
    Note: the arb guesses are taken from the Matt Swartz model on MLBTR.
    Last edited by I(heart)Freel; 11-01-2013 at 02:37 PM.
    I have a love-hate relationship with Albert Pujols. Mostly hate.

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    OlafTheBlack Dan's Avatar
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    Re: 2014 - Status Quo

    Phillips for someone like Dustin Ackley or a prospect like Christian Colon would be a place to start cutting in order to afford Choo.
    Sabermetrics is this: A batter's goal is to extend the inning. Extend enough innings and you're going to score runs. Extend more innings than your opponent and you're going to score more runs than him.

    Forget the rain. It's never an official game until the Reds piss away a run between third base and home plate. - Bluegrass Redleg

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    Re: 2014 - Status Quo

    Isn't Ondrusek under contract for like 1.5 million for next season?

    But this should help make a great reference point, so thanks for putting it in one place.

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    Re: 2014 - Status Quo

    Phillips for someone like Dustin Ackley or a prospect like Christian Colon would be a place to start cutting in order to afford Choo.
    Was just looking at Colon myself. I liked him coming out of college (CS Fullerton), and he started to come on offensively in the second half at AAA last year. Could be a solid piece along with another prospect, I'd like. BP seems to be exactly what the Royals are looking for.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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    Re: 2014 - Status Quo

    Quote Originally Posted by PepperJack View Post
    Isn't Ondrusek under contract for like 1.5 million for next season?

    But this should help make a great reference point, so thanks for putting it in one place.
    Good call. I'll edit the thread above. Thx.
    I have a love-hate relationship with Albert Pujols. Mostly hate.

  8. #6
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    Re: 2014 - Status Quo

    I guess the moving target would be what the owners are willing to establish as the payroll.

    I've read some things that maybe $110mm might be the line, but who knows?

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    Re: 2014 - Status Quo

    I wouldn't be surprised to see Heisey and/or Paul get non-tendered. I think both players are reasonable 4th/5th OF options but if you're looking to pinch pennies you may be able to find cheaper alternatives. The same can possibly said for Hanigan, though I think he'd be the least likely of the three to get non-tendered because of what he brings to the pitching staff. Unless they trade Phillips I don't think there is much fat to be trimmed in the position players group.

    The biggest savings would come from dealing one of Bailey, Chapman or Leake and putting Cingrani in the rotation. That leaves them awfully thin at SP but if they can get cheaper and address an area of need it's probably worth exploring.

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    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: 2014 - Status Quo


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    Re: 2014 - Status Quo

    Non-tendering Heisey, Hanigan, and Ondrusek saves the Reds around $3-4M, depending on who they replace then with.

    I'm guessing payroll will be around $115M.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    Re: 2014 - Status Quo

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Non-tendering Heisey, Hanigan, and Ondrusek saves the Reds around $3-4M, depending on who they replace then with.

    I'm guessing payroll will be around $115M.
    Unfortunately, LoganO is under contract. But your point is taken.
    I have a love-hate relationship with Albert Pujols. Mostly hate.

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    Re: 2014 - Status Quo

    There is a chance Hanigan is non-tendered but then re-signed for something a little less. Otherwise, I wouldn't non-tender any of these guys. Heisey and Paul are truly solid backup OFs and don't cost much more than the league minimum.

    What is the scouting report on Colon's defense?
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

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    malingered here too long malcontent's Avatar
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    Re: 2014 - Status Quo

    Quote Originally Posted by I(heart)Freel View Post
    Unfortunately, LoganO is under contract. But your point is taken.
    I see Logan O. as a 2014 bounce-back candidate.

    He's just got to start missing bats instead of his spots.
    Everything is perfect, but there is a lot of room for improvement. --- Shunryu Suzuki-roshi

  16. #13
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    Re: 2014 - Status Quo

    Quote Originally Posted by malcontent View Post
    I see Logan O. as a 2014 bounce-back candidate.

    He's just got to start missing bats instead of his spots.
    Bounce-backs are easier when you begin at a great height. Logan's never really been good.

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    Re: 2014 - Status Quo

    Quote Originally Posted by marcshoe View Post
    Bounce-backs are easier when you begin at a great height. Logan's never really been good.

    weren't the Phillies interested at one point ...probably should have dealt him then.

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    Re: 2014 - Status Quo

    Quote Originally Posted by marcshoe View Post
    Bounce-backs are easier when you begin at a great height. Logan's never really been good.
    Logan should be a ROOGY. His splits are quite large. Lefties kill him. Righties he looks like -well - not exactly Rivera but a heckuva lot better version of himself....he should face as few lefties as possible and not even be considered when there are 2 or 3 lefties in the next 4 or 5 batters.
    No - I am not from State Farm!


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