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Thread: Walt interview (with Cunningham)

  1. #31
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    Re: Walt interview (with Cunningham)

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    Dude... that's saberific
    Shh, that's a bad word.

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  3. #32
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    Re: Walt interview (with Cunningham)

    Quote Originally Posted by SidneySlicker View Post
    Here's my main issue with Joey.
    BA with risp
    2007 .385
    2008 .287
    2009 .336
    2010 .369
    2011 .383
    2012 .370
    2013 .291

    For whatever reason in 2013 he hit from 70 to 90 pts below his career norm with men in scoring position. OPSing a high number is great, but it's not the end all be all. I think reason people had many more complaints about Votto in 2013 is simply because he wasn't as clutch with men in scoring position as he has traditionally been. Is that due to pressure he's putting onto himself from his contract? Was it simply a bad year? Was it his approach at the plate? I don't know, but I have a big problem paying a guy 220 million to not hit over .300 with risp. Maybe that's wrong, but that's where I'm at.
    Really? If Joey would have walked 3 more times or had 2 more hits he would be above .300

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  5. #33
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    Re: Walt interview (with Cunningham)

    Quote Originally Posted by Red Rover View Post
    Really? If Joey would have walked 3 more times or had 2 more hits he would be above .300
    Ok let me rephrase that I have a problem paying Joey Votto a 200 million dollar contract if he's not going to be amongst the top of the league in BA/risp and rbi.

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  7. #34
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    Re: Walt interview (with Cunningham)

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    Randomness. It's not a skill.
    What about that is random?

  8. #35
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Walt interview (with Cunningham)

    Quote Originally Posted by junkhead View Post
    League average: 65.5%
    So Votto is pretty much average on Z-swing (swinging at pitches in the zone). Only slightly better than Cozart. Seems like there's room for improvement, although his O-swing numbers are great.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  9. #36
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    Re: Walt interview (with Cunningham)

    Quote Originally Posted by kbrake View Post
    Did Votto actually swing less than your average player at pitches in the strike zone? I don't really get the complaints. It seemed most often like he rarely saw decent pitches. Marty loves to complain that Votto isn't Miguel Cabrera well if Prince Fielder hit behind him maybe he would look more like Cabrera. Maybe I'm wrong but I rarely felt like Votto was looking to walk as much as pitchers were looking to not pitch to him.
    Votto had 581 non-walk at-bats this season. He had plenty to hit. And Prince Fielder was pretty much Jay Bruce this season. Votto just had a down season by his standards (and by his own admission) -- great by most others.

    There are a few questions that must be answered:

    1) Was his down season a result of his new approach? (I'm not convinced it wasn't just an off year.)

    2) Are his 2013 numbers his new normal? (Is a huge part of his value walk/single-driven?)

    3) Is he willing to change his approach at the organization's request (because it's clear the organization isn't happy with his results this season)?

    If he's content being a .900 OPS table-setter, then the Reds will move him. Other clubs may pay $220 million to an exceptional 2-hole hitter, but the Reds can't. Because if his primary value is getting on base (and I'm not suggesting this isn't valuable) and relying on others to knock him in, that handcuffs the Reds. They have to allocate their payroll wisely, and spending $220 million on a corner infielder who bats second makes it tough to put run producers (typically more expensive) behind him -- and tough to find positions for those guys.

    There are teams who can build their rosters that way, but I don't think the Reds are one of them.

    I like Votto and don't want him to go anywhere. But I do think he has to understand the reality of this situation and that these are games to be won or lost every day -- not theoretical statistical equations to be proven or disproven over time.

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  11. #37
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    Re: Walt interview (with Cunningham)

    Quote Originally Posted by osuceltic View Post
    Votto had 581 non-walk at-bats this season. He had plenty to hit. And Prince Fielder was pretty much Jay Bruce this season. Votto just had a down season by his standards (and by his own admission) -- great by most others.

    There are a few questions that must be answered:

    1) Was his down season a result of his new approach? (I'm not convinced it wasn't just an off year.)

    2) Are his 2013 numbers his new normal? (Is a huge part of his value walk/single-driven?)

    3) Is he willing to change his approach at the organization's request (because it's clear the organization isn't happy with his results this season)?

    If he's content being a .900 OPS table-setter, then the Reds will move him. Other clubs may pay $220 million to an exceptional 2-hole hitter, but the Reds can't. Because if his primary value is getting on base (and I'm not suggesting this isn't valuable) and relying on others to knock him in, that handcuffs the Reds. They have to allocate their payroll wisely, and spending $220 million on a corner infielder who bats second makes it tough to put run producers (typically more expensive) behind him -- and tough to find positions for those guys.

    There are teams who can build their rosters that way, but I don't think the Reds are one of them.

    I like Votto and don't want him to go anywhere. But I do think he has to understand the reality of this situation and that these are games to be won or lost every day -- not theoretical statistical equations to be proven or disproven over time.
    A perfect articulation of what I was trying to say with his batting average with runners in scoring position with regards to his value vs his contract.

  12. #38
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    Re: Walt interview (with Cunningham)

    Quote Originally Posted by dubc47834 View Post
    LOL REALLY...Im glad people with this line of thinking aren't the GM, because we would have a run like the pirates just got off of. At least until they were hired with someone who actually knew baseball...
    Hey, that's mean! Didn't you see my winky thingy?

  13. #39
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    Re: Walt interview (with Cunningham)

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    So Votto is pretty much average on Z-swing (swinging at pitches in the zone). Only slightly better than Cozart. Seems like there's room for improvement, although his O-swing numbers are great.
    What would you say the optimal Z-swing percentage is? I would argue it certainly is not 100%.

    jvs

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    Re: Walt interview (with Cunningham)

    Quote Originally Posted by osuceltic View Post
    If he's content being a .900 OPS table-setter, then the Reds will move him. Other clubs may pay $220 million to an exceptional 2-hole hitter, but the Reds can't.
    http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/201...rmetric-lineup
    Essentially, the smart money says that a team's best hitter should bat second, and not third like the conventional wisdom says. And with a .455 wOBA and a 192 wRC+ during the regular season, Miguel Cabrera fits the bill of the Tigers' best hitter.

  16. #41
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    Re: Walt interview (with Cunningham)

    Why would you give a guy $200 million and then tell him "stop doing those things you did that caused us to pay you all that money?"
    Championships Matter.
    23 Years and Counting...

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  18. #42
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    Re: Walt interview (with Cunningham)

    Quote Originally Posted by SidneySlicker View Post
    What about that is random?
    Because no MLB hitter is good enough to get on base whenever they want to. They do not control the opportunities or the outcomes.

    Not to mention that "RISP" is a ridiculous carve out of meaningful data.

    He doubles home a guy from first, you don't count it. A two run homer with a guy on first. Nope, not in the population. A solo homer? Well, of course he "choked" earlier in the game with RISP, another meaningless homer. Not adding to his BA with RISP. Trade da bum.
    Can't win with 'em

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  20. #43
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    Re: Walt interview (with Cunningham)

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    Why would you give a guy $200 million and then tell him "stop doing those things you did that caused us to pay you all that money?"
    The Reds would say they paid Votto $200 million and then he stopped doing all those things that caused them to pay him all that money.

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  22. #44
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    Re: Walt interview (with Cunningham)

    Quote Originally Posted by PTjvs View Post
    What would you say the optimal Z-swing percentage is? I would argue it certainly is not 100%.

    jvs

    I'm not sure what the optimal Z-swing is, but the fact that Joey is only 1 or 2 percent above average (which includes pitchers and backups) says there's room for improvement. Many of his teammates have higher rates than he does.

    If Joey could increase his Z-swing percentage by 5 percent, at the expense of his O-swing percentage going up 2 percent.. I think that would be worth it.
    Note, I realize that increasing the Z-swing is going to also probably increase the O-swing.

    I love Joey, I'm glad he's on the team, but when he says stuff like "I refuse to ever make an out to drive in a run", that's not good for a #3 hitter.
    We can talk about maximizing the big inning, etc. but there are times (like in the playoffs) when you need a run. When Votto has the passive approach all season, he's not going to be able to change it on the playoffs.

    People talk about Phillips drop off in the 2nd half. That's certainly valid to bring up.. But I think Votto's passivity compounded the problem..
    It analogous to the Dunn years. If Dunn came up with runners in scoring position, the pitcher would just nibble and either walk or strike out Dunn most of the time.. Either way, the pitcher got to face EdE or another lesser threat, which is advantageous to the other team, and kind of negates the value of that walk (when given).
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  23. #45
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    Re: Walt interview (with Cunningham)

    Quote Originally Posted by osuceltic View Post
    Votto had 581 non-walk at-bats this season. He had plenty to hit. And Prince Fielder was pretty much Jay Bruce this season. Votto just had a down season by his standards (and by his own admission) -- great by most others.

    There are a few questions that must be answered:

    1) Was his down season a result of his new approach? (I'm not convinced it wasn't just an off year.)

    2) Are his 2013 numbers his new normal? (Is a huge part of his value walk/single-driven?)

    3) Is he willing to change his approach at the organization's request (because it's clear the organization isn't happy with his results this season)?

    If he's content being a .900 OPS table-setter, then the Reds will move him. Other clubs may pay $220 million to an exceptional 2-hole hitter, but the Reds can't. Because if his primary value is getting on base (and I'm not suggesting this isn't valuable) and relying on others to knock him in, that handcuffs the Reds. They have to allocate their payroll wisely, and spending $220 million on a corner infielder who bats second makes it tough to put run producers (typically more expensive) behind him -- and tough to find positions for those guys.

    There are teams who can build their rosters that way, but I don't think the Reds are one of them.

    I like Votto and don't want him to go anywhere. But I do think he has to understand the reality of this situation and that these are games to be won or lost every day -- not theoretical statistical equations to be proven or disproven over time.
    If this happens, then we are back to the dark days of Dan O'Brien. "All minor league hitters are going to take the first pitch." That set Votto's development back at least a year. Be careful what you ask for.
    Can't win with 'em

    Can't win without 'em

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