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Thread: Walt interview (with Cunningham)

  1. #166
    malingered here too long malcontent's Avatar
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    Re: Walt interview (with Cunningham)

    Quote Originally Posted by HUHUH View Post
    Where he fell on his face was outside the batters box. Defense was bad, baserunning bad, didn't run out ground balls, seemed disinterested, couldn't remember how many outs there are - - - - for $220 million, THESE are the things they should demand he improve on, immediately!
    All too true. I'm surprised he didn't take more heat for not running out the occasional grounder.

    Has anyone run the before/after F-bomb ban splits?
    Everything is perfect, but there is a lot of room for improvement. --- Shunryu Suzuki-roshi

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  3. #167
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    Re: Walt interview (with Cunningham)

    I've got no problem putting Joey in the 2 hole if the Reds think that is his proper role. The only issue I might raise is-who do you then put at 3?

    I really don't think anyone else in the lineup would work at 3.

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  5. #168
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    Re: Walt interview (with Cunningham)

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    Well, that's the heart of the issue. His 2010 season is the outlier, not the norm. That 2010 season was carried by a 25.0% HR per Fly Ball ratio. For a guy with Votto's game, that's unsustainable. To put it in context, a 25.0% HR/FB ratio has never been achieved by Albert Pujols and only once by Miguel Cabrera (2013). Adam Dunn, who likely had and has more raw power than anyone in the game has done it exactly twice.

    There's nothing about Votto's game that projected or projects that he'll consistently pull the kind of power numbers people are demanding he 'return' to. He's not that guy. Instead, he's a highly-disciplined line drive machine who carries a moderate amount of power. The Reds clearly should have known that before signing him to his LTC as they saw exactly who he was over multiple seasons; including the one (2011) immediately before they offered him his deal.
    You're exactly right. In contrast to common belief, Votto is not a power hitter.
    Instead, he's just one of the best pure hitters in baseball.

    Below are active career leaders for LD% with at least 3500 PA.


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    Re: Walt interview (with Cunningham)

    IMO the best thing the Reds can do regarding Votto is to give him more and better support in the lineup.

    The better the overall lineup, the more Votto will get to hit, the less teams can say "I'm not letting Votto beat me." Hitters do better when surrounded by other good hitters.

    Folks want to bunch the good hitters, but when there are only two or three of them you can't bunch them enough. Add bats and watch Votto do better.

    I was disappointed to hear Jocketty's comment. He can discuss this with Joey all he wants, but he'd be better off letting Votto be Votto and focusing on 2B, 3B, SS, LF, CF and C for next year.
    Last edited by Kc61; 10-24-2013 at 01:24 PM.

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  8. #170
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    Re: Walt interview (with Cunningham)

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    This is a perfect example of how big overall theoretical numbers fall apart when analyses in more detail.
    Is there anything more theoretical than clutch?
    Grape works as a soda. Sort of as a gum. I wonder why it doesn't work as a pie. Grape pie? There's no grape pie. - Larry David

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    Re: Walt interview (with Cunningham)

    Quote Originally Posted by MWM View Post
    Is there anything more theoretical than clutch?
    There is nothing theoretical about a players numbers with runners in scoring position, late in close games, or in high leverage situations. Call it what you want, but those are hard numbers, that reveal actual production.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    Re: Walt interview (with Cunningham)

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    There is nothing theoretical about a players numbers with runners in scoring position, late in close games, or in high leverage situations. Call it what you want, but those are hard numbers, that reveal actual production.
    Correct. But I think Votto has to be defended here. The guy found himself last year under great, great pressure to produce because almost nobody else did. The RISP situations were magnified because it was usually Votto or nothing. And teams pitched around him as reflected by all the walks.

    Early on Phillips did well, and Bruce had a reasonably good year. But this was a shallow lineup.

    Obviously it would be better if Joey was oblivious and just hit at his best regardless of circumstances. But the guy was given very little support last year.
    Last edited by Kc61; 10-24-2013 at 01:31 PM.

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  12. #173
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    Re: Walt interview (with Cunningham)

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    There is nothing theoretical about a players numbers with runners in scoring position, late in close games, or in high leverage situations. Call it what you want, but those are hard numbers, that reveal actual production.
    But attributing those numbers to "clutch" is entirely theoretical.
    Grape works as a soda. Sort of as a gum. I wonder why it doesn't work as a pie. Grape pie? There's no grape pie. - Larry David

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    Re: Walt interview (with Cunningham)

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Correct. But I think Votto has to be defended here. The guy found himself last year under great, great pressure to produce because almost nobody else did. The RISP situations were magnified because it was usually Votto or nothing. And teams pitched around him as reflected by all the walks.

    Early on Phillips did well, and Bruce had a reasonably good year. But this was a shallow lineup.

    Obviously it would be better if Joey was oblivious and just hit at his best regardless of circumstances. But the guy was given very little support last year.
    There are probably a plethora a reasons explaining why Votto did so poorly in the clutch in 2013. But the facts are clear, he performed well below his normal performance level in those situations. I think Walt is well within his duties as GM to investigate these reasons and see if something can be done about it.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    Re: Walt interview (with Cunningham)

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    There is nothing theoretical about a players numbers with runners in scoring position, late in close games, or in high leverage situations. Call it what you want, but those are hard numbers, that reveal actual production.
    More to the point, whether you attribute it to "bad luck" or "random variation" or "skill", it shows 1 reason why the actual production doesn't quite match up to the projected production associated with a the OPS, RC, WAR, etc..

    Understanding the variance between the number of runs actually produced, and those that you would project to be produced given his stats is important. But first you have to recognize that the number of runs actually produced WAS below what the projection.

    In general, I think it's mainly a result of random variation, and perhaps the early lack of RBI getting into Joey's head a little bit.
    When people say that I donít know what Iím talking about when it comes to sports or writing, I think: Man, you should see me in the rest of my life.
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    Re: Walt interview (with Cunningham)

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    There are probably a plethora a reasons explaining why Votto did so poorly in the clutch in 2013. But the facts are clear, he performed well below his normal performance level in those situations. I think Walt is well within his duties as GM to investigate these reasons and see if something can be done about it.
    I think Walt has every reason to question Votto particularly his defense and baserunning. Does anyone think the reds are having buyers remorse on his contract?
    I was in the ORG once, best 6 months of my life.

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    Re: Walt interview (with Cunningham)

    Quote Originally Posted by junkhead View Post
    You're exactly right. In contrast to common belief, Votto is not a power hitter.
    Instead, he's just one of the best pure hitters in baseball.

    Below are active career leaders for LD% with at least 3500 PA.

    I'm not sure anyone has argued that Votto (by his own admission) underachieved because he didn't hit enough home runs. Look at his extra base hits. He had 57 extra base hits this year. That's a career low, despite having more plate appearances than he had in any other season. He had 58 extra base hits last season despite missing 50 games with an injury and not being 100 percent even after he came back. His slugging percentage was a career low by a significant margin.

    So you can talk about cumulative value measures all you want, but his value in 2013 was driven by walks. And it's not a protection issue, unless I missed all those seasons when he had Babe Ruth batting behind him. Walks have value. Not arguing that. But that's not the role the Reds ask Votto to play -- or the role he has played for the first half of his career. He was Shin Soo Choo this year, minus a few singles. That's not a bad player at all. But does anyone want to pay Choo $220 million?

    And, as others have said, the dip in offensive production is only part of the story -- he was terrible in the field and on the basepaths. Just a down year all around.

    I've said this before: Is it just a blip, or is it the new normal?

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  18. #178
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    Re: Walt interview (with Cunningham)

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    Just on the eyeball test, the problem with Votto (if you can even call it a problem) is that he didn't do enough damage on mistake pitches this year. About the only difference I noticed from 2012 to 2013 is that he was more likely to foul those pitches off this season than he was to drive them. You could see him becoming frustrated with that as the year wore on.

    I suspect it's a one year abberation and that he'll be back to his old self next season. The important thing was that he never let any of this change his approach or impact his pitch selectivity. That's a good thing. Anyone who says otherwise needs to learn more about how runs are scored.
    Quote Originally Posted by malcontent View Post
    That was about all I saw from Votto this year. Fouling relative meatballs off. Always to the left.
    Yep, and that's probably why he doesn't think he had a good year. It's probably the root of what they're talking about with adjustments.

    But if it's not an aberration but a trend, that would be a problem. That super-high walk-rate-driven OBP is not just a product of his eye and discipline, it's also a product of pitchers being afraid to throw him strikes. If he's not crushing the stuff they do throw over the plate, the walk rate's going to come down eventually.
    Not all who wander are lost

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    Re: Walt interview (with Cunningham)

    Quote Originally Posted by IslandRed View Post
    Yep, and that's probably why he doesn't think he had a good year. It's probably the root of what they're talking about with adjustments.

    But if it's not an aberration but a trend, that would be a problem. That super-high walk-rate-driven OBP is not just a product of his eye and discipline, it's also a product of pitchers being afraid to throw him strikes. If he's not crushing the stuff they do throw over the plate, the walk rate's going to come down eventually.





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    Re: Walt interview (with Cunningham)

    Quote Originally Posted by osuceltic View Post

    So you can talk about cumulative value measures all you want, but his value in 2013 was driven by walks. And it's not a protection issue, unless I missed all those seasons when he had Babe Ruth batting behind him. Walks have value.

    I've said this before: Is it just a blip, or is it the new normal?
    I think it is a protection issue in large part. The Reds were never as hitting thin as in 2013, not in recent years.

    Ludwick went down. Phillips' hitting declined likely due to injury. Frazier hit, what, .234 or something.

    Don't think it's an accident that Votto led the major leagues (by far) in drawing walks. It's not just his approach, a walk requires the pitcher to throw four balls when you're up there.

    I can understand Walt wanting to look into all this; the team has a fortune of money on the line. And there may be other factors. But I think Votto's production is not nearly the biggest baseball problem facing Jocketty right now and he should concentrate on the other slots in the lineup.

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