Turn Off Ads?
Page 15 of 22 FirstFirst ... 5111213141516171819 ... LastLast
Results 211 to 225 of 328

Thread: Walt interview (with Cunningham)

  1. #211
    Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Upstate New York
    Posts
    1,735

    Re: Walt interview (with Cunningham)

    Quote Originally Posted by MWM View Post
    Sorry, Brutus, I've read enough of your posts on this site to conclude that the sentence above describes you as much as it does anyone else.
    If I could, I would "like" this 100 times.
    "I talked to an advance scout that told me if Joey Votto and Albert Pujols were on the same team he'd advise his team to do the unthinkable...pitch around Votto to get to Pujols." - Buster Olney, ESPN

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #212
    breath westofyou's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2000
    Location
    PDX
    Posts
    42,637

    Re: Walt interview (with Cunningham)

    If I could I'd stay on topic

  4. Likes:

    Brutus (10-24-2013)

  5. #213
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Chicago, IL
    Posts
    15,989

    Re: Walt interview (with Cunningham)

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Forget the word clutch. It's canard that people use on both sides to muddy the waters. I apologize for using that loaded word, it simply was a matter of laziness on my part.

    Do you think that Votto performed as expected with RISP, with runners on base, late in close games and in high leverage situations? The empirical evidence overwhelming says that he did not.
    Let's back up for a minute. How much of this was Votto not being clutch vs. simply not hitting as well?

    Code:
    		PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BB%	K%	LD%	GB/FB	BABIP
    2012		475	.337	.474	.567	.438	19.8	17.9	30.2	1.18	.404
    2013		726	.305	.435	.491	.400	18.6	19.0	27.2	1.50	.360
    Career	       3790	.314	.419	.541	.411	14.9	18.5	25.2	1.23	.359
    We should recognize the big themes of Votto's 2013 overall:
    1. His BABIP regressed from Godly to simply really freaking good, his career level. This hurt his stats across the board.
    2. His power was down, the lowest ISO of his career. Perhaps not surprisingly, he also set a career high GB/FB rate.

    Regarding #1, that was not unexpected. He wasn't going to have a .400 BABIP again. He just wasn't; end of story. For a player with so little speed, Votto is already pushing the limits of historical performance on that front with his career .359 rate.

    Regarding #2, the question is why he hit the ball on the ground so much more. I'm not sure I can link that to his (arguably) overly disciplined approach. If anything, his unwillingness to expand the zone should minimize grounders. However, if his knee was indeed bothering him, and he wasn't able to turn on the ball as quickly or in quite the same way, that's strikes me as a plausible cause. Will that get better in 2014? I hope so.

    So we know he hit for a lower average and less power in 2013 than 2012. Both his AVG and SLG were below his career norms, which would explain the RBI issue somewhat. But that's obviously not the full story.

    Joey Votto did a poor job at converting RBI opportunities, period. Of the 199 players with 400+ PA, Votto was 165th best at converting baserunners to runs OBI%. Brandon Phillips, for reference, was 20th. Also for reference, Votto was tied for 13th (with Big Papi) with 441 men on base in total while Jay Bruce was 2nd with 500 and Brandon Phillips was 3rd with 492.

    But Voto was still a really good hitter in 2013; he still hit .305 and slugged nearly .500. So what's with the RBI conversion rate. HeLet's take a closer look at those splits:
    Code:
    		PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BB%	K%	LD%	GB/FB	BABIP
    --2013 Splits--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Bases Empty	394	.318	.416	.531	.414	14.2	19.8	26.3	1.45	.401
    Men on Base	332	.287	.458	.434	.383	23.8	18.1	28.4	1.57	.329
    Men in Scoring	192	.291	.477	.455	.384	26.4	17.1	23.4	1.65	.271
    
    --Career Splits------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Bases Empty	2086	.302	.390	.526	.399	12.2	19.7	26.0	1.30	.346
    Men on Base	1704	.331	.455	.561	.426	18.2	17.0	24.2	1.15	.376
    Men in Scoring	 989	.340	.477	.590	.435	21.2	16.5	24.9	1.04	.379
    Here's what I see:
    1. His walk rate shoots up with men on base. Not a surprise, nor something out of the ordinary for him throughout his career. But the degree to which is shot up was significantly higher this year. So maybe he's just not swinging? But his strikeout rates were much closer to his career averages. Perhaps he was slightly more willing to take a pitch in 2013, but it seems like the larger portion of the explanation is that he just got less to hit.

    2. Votto's BABIP cratered with men on base. For his career, his BABIP actually jumps 30 points with guys on base. Last year, it dropped from .401 with the bases empty to .271 with runners in scoring position. That's huge. As for why? Well, BABIP jumps around a fair amount, especially in smaller samples. But it's also something hitters do have a decent amount of control over. If Votto was being too patient, too unwilling to swing, it would seem odd to suggest he was making worse contact with guys on base. And when we look at LD%, we see a guy was still stinging the ball when he made contact. Doesn't really compute -- especially given that BABIP on grounders is higher than BABIP on fly balls and....

    3. Votto's GB/FB spiked with men on base, the opposite of his historical trend. Again, I struggle to tie this to being too patient, too unwilling to chase.

    So, at the end of the day, we have guy who:
    - Lost some power
    - Lost some luck
    - Had worse timing

    He didn't have a "great" year from an RBI standpoint, something which appears to be driven by all the things that went wrong for him. If Votto's primary job is to convert base-runners to run batted in, his 2013 was poor. Of course, the problem is that no batter has just one job, regardless of where he bats in the lineup. Batting 3rd simply isn't that different from batting 2nd, 4th, or anywhere else.

    Every batter is responsible for both advancing his teammates and putting himself on base to be advanced (or to advance himself). And the balance of the value provided by fulfilling those responsibilities does not change drastically at different spots in the lineup. For whatever reason, many people seem to think that the RBI conversion part is the rare/more valuable skill; the best hitters are the "run producers" who tally a lot of RBI. But in fact, getting on base is actually the more rare skill. It's harder to find guys who get on base a lot than guys who slug or hit for average and we know that at the team level OBP is more strongly correlated to total runs than either AVG or SLG.

    Votto did not do a good job at driving in runs last year. But the leap from "didn't get an RBI" to "failed to do his job" is myopic and misguided. Yes, Votto could have been better, especially on the advancing runners front. I expect him to do better in that respect in 2014 and so should you. But despite his "struggles" to "produce runs" in 2013, Joey Votto still managed to create more runs as a hitter than anybody else in the NL -- or close to it -- easily justifying his salary and contract.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  6. Likes:

    757690 (10-24-2013), BillDoran (10-24-2013), Fil3232 (10-24-2013), joshua (10-25-2013), mdccclxix (10-24-2013), mth123 (10-25-2013), Redeyecat (10-24-2013)

  7. #214
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2002
    Posts
    9,333

    Re: Walt interview (with Cunningham)

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Forget the word clutch. It's canard that people use on both sides to muddy the waters. I apologize for using that loaded word, it simply was a matter of laziness on my part.

    Do you think that Votto performed as expected with RISP, with runners on base, late in close games and in high leverage situations? The empirical evidence overwhelming says that he did not.
    The 'empirical evidence' says nothing of the sort. Votto had a FINE 2013 regardless of situation; certainly well within normal expectations.

    However, what your post is saying is that there's a tremendous gap between what we could reasonably expect from a hitter and what you expected. That's not a Votto issue; instead, it's an issue with your expectation.

    What you've done is taken a total of 753 completely unrelated AB across Votto's career and concluded that we should reasonably expect him to hit .341 w/RISP annually going forward. But that's not how things work. Sometimes hitters post better situational numbers in a given year and sometimes worse. Sometimes normal variances pop up versus overall performance (like 2013) and sometimes not.

    The issue is that the sample sizes you're using are too small and year-to-year small sample performance is naturally too volatile to allow you to form the conclusions you're using to drive your expectations; resulting in wild expectations of situational over-performance that, really, no one can match over any real period of time.

    In short, if you use the improbable to fuel an expectation that the exception is 'normal', you're going to be disappointed pretty much every time. But, again, that's not a 'Joey Votto' issue.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch thatís over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.Ē
    --Ted Williams

  8. Likes:

    Dom Heffner (10-24-2013), GullyFoyle (10-24-2013), jojo (10-25-2013), joshua (10-25-2013), Larkin Fan (10-24-2013), Raisor (10-25-2013), westofyou (10-24-2013)

  9. #215
    Member 757690's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Dayton
    Posts
    10,285

    Re: Walt interview (with Cunningham)

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    The 'empirical evidence' says nothing of the sort. Votto had a FINE 2013 regardless of situation; certainly well within normal expectations.

    However, what your post is saying is that there's a tremendous gap between what we could reasonably expect from a hitter and what you expected. That's not a Votto issue; instead, it's an issue with your expectation.

    What you've done is taken a total of 753 completely unrelated AB across Votto's career and concluded that we should reasonably expect him to hit .341 w/RISP annually going forward. But that's not how things work. Sometimes hitters post better situational numbers in a given year and sometimes worse. Sometimes normal variances pop up versus overall performance (like 2013) and sometimes not.

    The issue is that the sample sizes you're using are too small and year-to-year small sample performance is naturally too volatile to allow you to form the conclusions you're using to drive your expectations; resulting in wild expectations of situational over-performance that, really, no one can match over any real period of time.

    In short, if you use the improbable to fuel an expectation that the exception is 'normal', you're going to be disappointed pretty much every time. But, again, that's not a 'Joey Votto' issue.
    If this is the case, that we can't use one seasons worth of AB's in high leverage situations, or with RISP to draw any conclusions, because the sample size is too small, then we need to throw away nearly every study in clutch hitting, or BABIP, or UZR, or a the majority of studies done within the SABR community.

    Anyway, the only conclusion that I have drawn is that Votto wasn't as productive in crucial situations in 2013 as he was during the rest of his career. I drew no conclusions or attempted to draw any conclusions as to why this happened. The only conclusion that I drew is that it did happened.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  10. #216
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Posts
    18,854

    Re: Walt interview (with Cunningham)

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Anyway, the only conclusion that I have drawn is that Votto wasn't as productive in crucial situations in 2013 as he was during the rest of his career. I drew no conclusions or attempted to draw any conclusions as to why this happened. The only conclusion that I drew is that it did happened.
    Actually you concluded that because he had a worse than expected year with RISP, his RC metric couldn't be trusted because it overestimated his impact.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  11. #217
    Ripsnort wheels's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2002
    Location
    Columbus, Ohio
    Posts
    7,580

    Re: Walt interview (with Cunningham)

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    If this is the case, that we can't use one seasons worth of AB's in high leverage situations, or with RISP to draw any conclusions, because the sample size is too small, then we need to throw away nearly every study in clutch hitting, or BABIP, or UZR, or a the majority of studies done within the SABR community.

    Anyway, the only conclusion that I have drawn is that Votto wasn't as productive in crucial situations in 2013 as he was during the rest of his career. I drew no conclusions or attempted to draw any conclusions as to why this happened. The only conclusion that I drew is that it did happened.
    Votto had a .930ish OPS with runners in scoring position. Down from over .1000 the year before.

    Joey has never had a "bad" year with runners in scoring position. Only varying degrees of "good".
    "We know we're better than this, but we can't prove it." - Tony Gwynn

  12. Likes:

    Dom Heffner (10-24-2013), joshua (10-25-2013), New Fever (10-24-2013), Raisor (10-24-2013)

  13. #218
    Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Amarillo,Texas
    Posts
    4,358

    Re: Walt interview (with Cunningham)

    Walt was specifically asked in the podcast if he thought Joey spent too much time on sabremetrics-and he danced around it like a Russian ballerina.

    Color me skeptical, but I'm not expecting a great deal of change as far as the Reds organization to embrace advanced sabremetrics. The firing of Dusty doesn't necessarily mean the Reds organization will be a sabremetric organziation overnight.

  14. #219
    Member 757690's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Dayton
    Posts
    10,285

    Re: Walt interview (with Cunningham)

    Quote Originally Posted by wheels View Post
    Votto had a .930ish OPS with runners in scoring position. Down from over .1000 the year before.

    Joey has never had a "bad" year with runners in scoring position. Only varying degrees of "good".
    There is nothing contradictory with saying Votto had a great year last year, and that he wasn't as productive in crucial situations as he was in the past.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  15. #220
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Location
    Atlanta, Ga.
    Posts
    10,565

    Re: Walt interview (with Cunningham)

    Quote Originally Posted by MWM View Post
    Sorry, Brutus, I've read enough of your posts on this site to conclude that the sentence above describes you as much as it does anyone else.
    That's your prerogative but highly irrelevant to this conversation. Anything to add about the actual subject or just want to make a drive-by ad hominem attack?
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  16. #221
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2002
    Posts
    9,333

    Re: Walt interview (with Cunningham)

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    If this is the case, that we can't use one seasons worth of AB's in high leverage situations, or with RISP to draw any conclusions, because the sample size is too small, then we need to throw away nearly every study in clutch hitting, or BABIP, or UZR, or a the majority of studies done within the SABR community.
    Well, that is some leap in logic. If you think that BABIP, multi-year UZR, "the majority" of sabermetric studies are based on volatile small sample size data sets, then you're simply not informed.

    BTW, "SABR" and sabermetrics aren't the same thing.

    Anyway, the only conclusion that I have drawn is that Votto wasn't as productive in crucial situations in 2013 as he was during the rest of his career. I drew no conclusions or attempted to draw any conclusions as to why this happened. The only conclusion that I drew is that it did happened.
    You've drawn a number of conclusions:

    1) We should expect Joey Votto to produce a .341 BA w/RISP
    2) BA w/RISP is a meaningful measure of player performance.
    3) Small sample size data sets should be trusted.
    4) RISP situations are "crucial".
    5) Runs Created is an invalid measurement because Votto didn't produce as you expected in RISP situations.

    The accuracy level of those conclusions is 0.00%.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch thatís over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.Ē
    --Ted Williams

  17. #222
    Member 757690's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Dayton
    Posts
    10,285

    Re: Walt interview (with Cunningham)

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    Well, that is some leap in logic. If you think that BABIP, multi-year UZR, "the majority" of sabermetric studies are based on volatile small sample size data sets, then you're simply not informed.

    BTW, "SABR" and sabermetrics aren't the same thing.

    You've drawn a number of conclusions:

    1) We should expect Joey Votto to produce a .341 BA w/RISP
    2) BA w/RISP is a meaningful measure of player performance.
    3) Small sample size data sets should be trusted.
    4) RISP situations are "crucial".
    5) Runs Created is an invalid measurement because Votto didn't produce as you expected in RISP situations.

    The accuracy level of those conclusions is 0.00%.
    I concluded none of those things.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  18. #223
    Member Old school 1983's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2013
    Posts
    1,745

    Re: Walt interview (with Cunningham)

    How's this. Votto had a down year for votto power wise, and didn't hit what he usually does with runners in scoring position. This coupled with him being given the pitch around quite a bit lead to less pitches to drive and a decline in power and RBI and an increase in walks. The point being put better hitters around votto and his RBI will increase because of more runners on base for him, or lineup protect or a combination of the two. If that doesn't factor in, then better hitters around votto will translate more of his walks into runs. Point being votto had a down year for votto in terms of power, but still with having a good year, he was a very productive player. He should be the least of the reds worries, and the focus should be on getting better hitters around him.

    As far as the clutch thing, some people perform better under pressure than others in any walk of life. All situations are not created equal. The human factor plays in and pressure and nerves weigh on people. Is it correct to say that someone is clutch or not based on small sample sizes or because they came through once in a big situation? No it's not. But it's is equally as incorrect to say that it is all random or bunk or a fluke. Given the human factor of performing or lack thereof under pressure, and couple that with statistical analysis, and the truth more than likely falls in between. Each individual has a different aptitude or ability to perform in pressure situations but at the same time luck and randomness play a part. To me to say it is one way or the other just isn't looking at the total picture.

  19. #224
    Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Posts
    334

    Re: Walt interview (with Cunningham)

    Gosh people just admit it, the more it counts the worse he plays! He just does not have the mental make-up to carry a team when it really counts! And you know who "he" is. Sure he is a good hitter, OPS guy ect. That is just not enough for his HUGE, LONG contract! Not his fault, he is what he is, the Reds just over paid!
    And nobody would take him now, without the Reds paying some (a lot) of his contract.
    Now I would love for him to prove me wrong, and to win a couple more MVP's and lead the Reds to a WS championship or two before he hangs it up.

  20. #225
    Member joshua's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Posts
    1,046

    Re: Walt interview (with Cunningham)

    If performing when it counts means post-season games, that's a ridiculously small sample size for Votto.


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25