Actually you concluded that because he had a worse than expected year with RISP, his RC metric couldn't be trusted because it overestimated his impact.Originally Posted by 757690
Actually you concluded that because he had a worse than expected year with RISP, his RC metric couldn't be trusted because it overestimated his impact.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
Votto had a .930ish OPS with runners in scoring position. Down from over .1000 the year before.
Joey has never had a "bad" year with runners in scoring position. Only varying degrees of "good".
"Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field?" ~ Jim Bouton
Dom Heffner (10-24-2013),joshua (10-25-2013),New Fever (10-24-2013),Raisor (10-24-2013)
Walt was specifically asked in the podcast if he thought Joey spent too much time on sabremetrics-and he danced around it like a Russian ballerina.
Color me skeptical, but I'm not expecting a great deal of change as far as the Reds organization to embrace advanced sabremetrics. The firing of Dusty doesn't necessarily mean the Reds organization will be a sabremetric organziation overnight.
There is nothing contradictory with saying Votto had a great year last year, and that he wasn't as productive in crucial situations as he was in the past.
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
That's your prerogative but highly irrelevant to this conversation. Anything to add about the actual subject or just want to make a drive-by ad hominem attack?
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda
Well, that is some leap in logic. If you think that BABIP, multi-year UZR, "the majority" of sabermetric studies are based on volatile small sample size data sets, then you're simply not informed.
BTW, "SABR" and sabermetrics aren't the same thing.
You've drawn a number of conclusions:Anyway, the only conclusion that I have drawn is that Votto wasn't as productive in crucial situations in 2013 as he was during the rest of his career. I drew no conclusions or attempted to draw any conclusions as to why this happened. The only conclusion that I drew is that it did happened.
1) We should expect Joey Votto to produce a .341 BA w/RISP
2) BA w/RISP is a meaningful measure of player performance.
3) Small sample size data sets should be trusted.
4) RISP situations are "crucial".
5) Runs Created is an invalid measurement because Votto didn't produce as you expected in RISP situations.
The accuracy level of those conclusions is 0.00%.
"The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer
"The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
--Ted Williams
I concluded none of those things.
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
How's this. Votto had a down year for votto power wise, and didn't hit what he usually does with runners in scoring position. This coupled with him being given the pitch around quite a bit lead to less pitches to drive and a decline in power and RBI and an increase in walks. The point being put better hitters around votto and his RBI will increase because of more runners on base for him, or lineup protect or a combination of the two. If that doesn't factor in, then better hitters around votto will translate more of his walks into runs. Point being votto had a down year for votto in terms of power, but still with having a good year, he was a very productive player. He should be the least of the reds worries, and the focus should be on getting better hitters around him.
As far as the clutch thing, some people perform better under pressure than others in any walk of life. All situations are not created equal. The human factor plays in and pressure and nerves weigh on people. Is it correct to say that someone is clutch or not based on small sample sizes or because they came through once in a big situation? No it's not. But it's is equally as incorrect to say that it is all random or bunk or a fluke. Given the human factor of performing or lack thereof under pressure, and couple that with statistical analysis, and the truth more than likely falls in between. Each individual has a different aptitude or ability to perform in pressure situations but at the same time luck and randomness play a part. To me to say it is one way or the other just isn't looking at the total picture.
Gosh people just admit it, the more it counts the worse he plays! He just does not have the mental make-up to carry a team when it really counts! And you know who "he" is. Sure he is a good hitter, OPS guy ect. That is just not enough for his HUGE, LONG contract! Not his fault, he is what he is, the Reds just over paid!
And nobody would take him now, without the Reds paying some (a lot) of his contract.
Now I would love for him to prove me wrong, and to win a couple more MVP's and lead the Reds to a WS championship or two before he hangs it up.
If performing when it counts means post-season games, that's a ridiculously small sample size for Votto.
JC dude, do you watch the games? He fails consistently in big situations. Take those JV blinders off.
FAILS JUST CONSTANTLY, LITERALLY NON STOP ALL OF THE TIME (in like, maybe, 10 games.)
joshua (10-25-2013),Larkin Fan (10-25-2013),marcshoe (10-25-2013),Revering4Blue (10-25-2013),VottoFan54 (10-26-2013)
And how many big games are we talking about here? 12? 20? 162? Do you have statistics? What exactly are you basing your opinion on?
Sure ya' did. You even went so far as to say that Votto performed "poorly" ("so poorly" were your actual words) in the "clutch" in 2013 and that Jocketty is perfectly reasonable to want to "...investigate...and see if something can be done about it."
If Jocketty is busy "investigating" how to fix a .932 OPS w/RISP (a smidge HIGHER than his overall 2013 OPS), then the amount of time he'll be wasting won't be "theoretical". It'll be very very real.
"The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer
"The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
--Ted Williams
joshua (10-25-2013),marcshoe (10-25-2013),Raisor (10-25-2013),redsfandan (10-25-2013),Revering4Blue (10-25-2013),wolfboy (10-25-2013)
I don't know, watching every game! That's what I'm basing it on...
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