Walt Jocketty

[krm1580]

On 12/11/2012 the Reds made the trade for Shin-Soo Choo upgrading the one major weakness on the team and putting them on the very short list of the best teams in baseball. Today when Walt Jocketty goes into the office he is looking at a very different baseball landscape than he was a mere 324 days ago.

The Reds are now the 3rd best team in their own division. 1B, RF and CF were the only spots that provided above league average offense and the CF is a Free Agent. They (I assume) are very close to tapped out from a payroll per perspective, there is no immediate help on the farm system and they are staring at the very real possibility of having to compete in 2014 against the defending World Series champs who by many accounts could be better next season.

Bottom line, given what I believe to be the Reds resources, I don't know that anybody has the ability to make the current Reds team better than Cardinals in 2014 which is why I voted not confident.

Think about it this way, IF, and it is a big IF, but IF they resign Choo they are essentially the same team that finished 7 games behind St Louis this season.

And just as a preemptive strike please don't anyone waste my time telling me about a full season of 36 year old Ryan Ludwick coming off shoulder surgery turning back into the flash in the pan he was in 2012

[kpresidente]

On 12/11/2012 the Reds made the trade for Shin-Soo Choo upgrading the one major weakness on the team and putting them on the very short list of the best teams in baseball. Today when Walt Jocketty goes into the office he is looking at a very different baseball landscape than he was a mere 324 days ago.

The Reds are now the 3rd best team in their own division. 1B, RF and CF were the only spots that provided above league average offense and the CF is a Free Agent. They (I assume) are very close to tapped out from a payroll per perspective, there is no immediate help on the farm system and they are staring at the very real possibility of having to compete in 2014 against the defending World Series champs who by many accounts could be better next season.

Bottom line, given what I believe to be the Reds resources, I don't know that anybody has the ability to make the current Reds team better than Cardinals in 2014 which is why I voted not confident.

Think about it this way, IF, and it is a big IF, but IF they resign Choo they are essentially the same team that finished 7 games behind St Louis this season.

According to Baseball Prospectus the Reds were the best team in the National League last year...

Adjusted Wins
Reds..........94.0
Cardinals....93.6
Braves.......91.9
Pirates.......91.9
Dodgers.....91.5

And just as a preemptive strike please don't anyone waste my time telling me about a full season of 36 year old Ryan Ludwick coming off shoulder surgery turning back into the flash in the pan he was in 2012

Two ways to improve...add good players or remove bad players.

The gains from Ludwick don't come from him being so great, they come from Heisey/Paul/Robinson being so bad. Hannahan, Izturis, Heisey, Paul, Robinson, Hanigan...that's 1300 ridiculously bad plate appearances. You'll always end up with some crappy bench players, but not that many that bad. They were extraordinary. Replacing half of those with even decent production is worth a couple of wins.

Guys like Votto, Mesoraco, Cozart, Frazier and even Broxton have nowhere to go but up, while nobody really overachieved except maybe Leake. Can't really say how much payroll there actually is, but Walt has repeatedly said they're going to make a run at Choo, so there has to be some room there. I'd say it's gotta be $10M or he'd be telling the media how nice it was to have Choo for a year and wishing him best-of-luck. On top of that, because of Chapman you can probably trade a starting pitcher without losing any significant production. So they have something to work with. Good starting pitchers have a lot of trade value.

The Cardinals are better (the Pirates aren't - they just won one game), but they'll probably lose an .830 OPS from Beltran, so they're not without similar issues, and who knows what can happen in 7 games.

[malcontent]

The Cardinals are better (the Pirates aren't - they just won one game), but they'll probably lose an .830 OPS from Beltran, so they're not without similar issues, and who knows what can happen in 7 games.

I'll be glad to see Beltran go (if he does).

I also think the Reds need another LH bat, even if they re-sign Choo. Unless Garcia comes back strong, the Cardinals will probably have 5 RH starters for the foreseeable future, with Wainwright, Wacha, Miller, Kelly and Lynn.

Replacing Phillips with a LH bat at 2B, or finding a platoon partner for Frazier at 3B (Sandoval?) would certainly help.

[herbdizzle]

Do you think Jocketty might try to take a look at Beltran if they decide locking up so many years on Choo isn't the best way to spend? Beltran's making 2/26 right now and will be a free agent. I could think of way worse options than giving him a 2-3 year deal. He switch hits also which helps keep the lineup balanced against any starter.

[malcontent]

Do you think Jocketty might try to take a look at Beltran if they decide locking up so many years on Choo isn't the best way to spend? Beltran's making 2/26 right now and will be a free agent. I could think of way worse options than giving him a 2-3 year deal. He switch hits also which helps keep the lineup balanced against any starter.

Interesting idea. I'd be surprised but it certainly seems like a decent alternative, especially at GABP.

[redsfandan]

Beltran won't play center and the Reds already have Bruce in right. One problem with Beltran in left is that it would leave $12M in Ludwick on the bench. The Reds can't afford that. And the Reds would still need to decide who will be their centerfielder.

[malcontent]

Beltran won't play center and the Reds already have Bruce in right. One problem with Beltran in left is that it would leave $12M in Ludwick on the bench. The Reds can't afford that. And the Reds would still need to decide who will be their centerfielder.

I see Hamilton as the odds-on favorite to start in CF. Beltran would have to play LF.

Ludwick as a 4th OF is a sunk cost in a sense, but is nice insurance in case somebody tears up a shoulder on OD.

After the Cardinals lose in 7 the Reds need to make their play for Carlos. Or not.

[Wonderful Monds]

I would argue that Edwin Encarnacion has become a star. Also, Wlad Balentien is a pretty big star in Japan who has convinced me he'd be a star here by now (this wasn't a trade... actually it was worse... they let him walk when we had him under team control for several more years).

I have confidence in Walt, and I wasn't critical of either of the above moves at the time. But in retrospect, they were bad moves.

And there have been some non-STAR players who were traded away or released who have become much better than the 20th-25th guys on our roster, and who we could have used at various times the last few years:

July 26, 2011 - The Cincinnati Reds traded Jonny Gomes and cash to the Washington Nationals for Bill Rhinehart (minors) and Christopher Manno (minors).

August 19, 2008 - released David Ross [the Reds have a history of undervaluing guys named "Ross." See Cody]

October 29, 2012 - Dioner Navarro of the Cincinnati Reds granted free agency.

Whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaat.

Jonny Gomes was so (rightfully) maligned here by the end of his run, there was basically a celebration when it was announced that he was traded.

Yeah, Ross is okay as a hitter, because he is a very poor catcher and he had to go. He was a big part of the problem in terms of defense and fundamental issues here. Plus, it's not like the Reds were going to carry him for the past 5 years anyway. No one would do that, he's a stopgap.

Navarro, okay, I would've liked to see him retained this year too, but I don't consider that to be a big deal.

[RedsManRick]

Two ways to improve...add good players or remove bad players.

Not true at all. A lot of improvement/regression comes simply from the guys you already have playing better or worse. I'm not saying that's a plan, but the kind of thinking where you just start with however many games you won last year and add/subtract based on your offseason is root of a whole heck of a lot of bad GM decisions.

[kpresidente]

Not true at all. A lot of improvement/regression comes simply from the guys you already have playing better or worse. I'm not saying that's a plan, but the kind of thinking where you just start with however many games you won last year and add/subtract based on your offseason is root of a whole heck of a lot of bad GM decisions.

Yeah, I know, I covered that too...

Guys like Votto, Mesoraco, Cozart, Frazier and even Broxton have nowhere to go but up, while nobody really overachieved except maybe Leake.

[cincinnati chili]

Whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaat.

Jonny Gomes was so (rightfully) maligned here by the end of his run, there was basically a celebration when it was announced that he was traded. .

I think it was a bad trade not so much because we traded away Jonny Gomes but because we got back Bill Rhinehart and Christopher Manno. I see your point though. The mere fact that I have this trade among Walt's worst trades demonstrates that he doesn't make many bad trades.

[REDREAD]

I think it was a bad trade not so much because we traded away Jonny Gomes but because we got back Bill Rhinehart and Christopher Manno. I see your point though. The mere fact that I have this trade among Walt's worst trades demonstrates that he doesn't make many bad trades.

Well, Gomes was traded late in the season and would've been DFAed anyhow.
In fact, Washington traded those minor leaguers for Gomes and then decided not to retain Gomes.

I see trading Gomes to Wash as doing him a favor (and saving the Reds a little cash). If Gomes stayed on Reds, he should've been benched.
Why not give him to Wash and give him a chance to audition there?
The Reds were out of contention, Gomes was a pending FA.

It's not unlike the Dunn trade and the Jr trade. Neither of these guys had a lot of value at the time.. One lotto ticket hit (Masset).. The prospects we got for Dunn ended up being worthless, but Walt did say they used the cash saved on Dunn to sign more people in the draft, so that's a worthwhile strategy for a rebuilding team, even if the extra picks we signed didn't pan out.

[RedlegJake]

You can't rank a GM on the trades that are basically churn. Every single GM has churn because the rules require roster churn throughout the system. Rule 5, arb, free agency, all designed to move players and free them to pursue chances elsewhere. It means bit players and role players from the minors to the majors will be moved every single year. In every organization there is going to one or two guys that go elsewhere and make it more or less big. The Gomes of the baseball world are everywhere. You are out of contention, a guy is a pending FA and you have to decide if he is part of your plans or do you get something for him?

Calculating a Ludwick comeback was a mistake. Signing Brox to a three year deal a mistake. Marlon Byrd was a mistake. Johny Gomes was not. Most of Walt's trades have not been mistakes. I have more problems with some of his signing decisions (Brox, Hanrahan) and failure to acquire players/any help (ie Ludwick-Heisey injuries) than deals he has done

[mdccclxix]

Walt on Sirius XM with Mike Ferrin today about Phillips, payroll, Chapman, and more:

https://soundcloud.com/siriusxmsport...-jocketty-they

[Griffey012]

I am beginning to rapidly lose confidence in Jocketty. We have roughly $25 and $30 million tied up next year and the following year in the following players:

Broxton
Ludwick
Schumaker
Marshall
Parra

Yet, it will be tough to find the money to sign Choo to a long term extension. A good GM finds a steal, such as Parra, get the good return, then lets them walk. Jocketty hangs onto these types as long as possible...see Ludwick's extension.

The Reds as a smaller market team can't afford to constantly pay market value for players and expect to continue to compete, we have to not be afraid to let players walk and move on. I don't get the feeling Jocketty is capable of that.