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Thread: Choo

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  1. #1
    Member BungleBengals's Avatar
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    Choo

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/1...medium=twitter

    MLBTR article on Choo's FA profile.

    The writer guesses that Choo gets 6 years at $100M which puts him at $16.67M a year. I just did the math based on the other articles MLBTR has released like the arb numbers and the Offseason Outlook and came to a total of $120M for this year if we kept Choo at that number he suggested. Of course that $120M does not factor in Dusty's vacation salary and the replacements (or resign) of Parra and Izturis either.

    I read another article on Red Reporter that said to expect the Reds payroll to rise at least 10% because of improved attendance this year. They had the payroll at $100M last year therefore this year would be $110M. My numbers from both Baseball Reference and ESPN have the payroll this year at $110 and given a 10% increase would put us right there to afford Choo and Parra and a veteran INF next year.

    Of course if the numbers are higher or whatever, I think it is definitely in the realm of possibility to backload Choo's contract. This way we can afford the extensions of Latos, Cueto, Leake and possibly Bailey while paying Choo a little less than the average per year salary on his contract until Broxton, Ludwick, Marshall, and Chapman are off the books.
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  2. #2
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    Re: Choo

    Where does Arroyo's contract fit in? Is the assumption he is off the books?

    If Choo is signed can the Reds raise enough money (through other deals) to add, say, a Sandoval?

    Choo, Phillips, Votto, Sandoval, Bruce, Ludwick would be a good six to begin the lineup.

    Or, if Ludwick goes to save money, perhaps Frazier or another less expensive player in LF.

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  4. #3
    Member BungleBengals's Avatar
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    Re: Choo

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Where does Arroyo's contract fit in? Is the assumption he is off the books?

    If Choo is signed can the Reds raise enough money (through other deals) to add, say, a Sandoval?

    Choo, Phillips, Votto, Sandoval, Bruce, Ludwick would be a good six to begin the lineup.

    Or, if Ludwick goes to save money, perhaps Frazier or another less expensive player in LF.
    Arroyo's numbers are not counted in my math. However, I saw an MLBTR article come out today that suggested, roughly, for Arroyo for 2 years at $24M. Which I think would be affordable for the Reds if they wanted to move Bailey or Cueto who both will be making close to $10M anyways.

    I just checked Baseball Reference and it lists Sandoval at $8.25M which would be a lot to add to this payroll. The obvious way to offset his salary would be to find a way to move either Phillips at $11M, Ludwick at $8.5M, one of the pitchers mentioned above, or you could try to move Broxton ($7M) or Marshall ($5.5M).

    Overall, I think trying to get Sandoval is a valid way to go. It adds offense to the team and Frazier can take over LF or add bench depth as a utility INF. A quick look at Baseball Reference shows that the Giants might be in the market for pitching. They are losing 2 SP to FA (both are 35) and a relief pitcher to FA (also 35). Leake is under team control for 2 years and Sandoval is a FA after next year. If the Reds sign Homer and move Chapman to the rotation then I think a fair trade would be Leake for Sandoval and cash difference from Giants.
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  5. #4
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    Re: Choo

    My opinion on choo is that the reds should build the team in the offseason under the assumption that choo will not return. Drop players to enable you to pay choo and he does not sign, then you're left between a rock and a hard place. Make offseason moves that improve the team regardless of if he signs or not. If he doesn't you'll be set, and if he does, he's a superior option to ludwick and offensively to Hamilton, so he'd have a spot regardless.

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  7. #5
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    Re: Choo

    Quote Originally Posted by Old school 1983 View Post
    My opinion on choo is that the reds should build the team in the offseason under the assumption that choo will not return. Drop players to enable you to pay choo and he does not sign, then you're left between a rock and a hard place. Make offseason moves that improve the team regardless of if he signs or not. If he doesn't you'll be set, and if he does, he's a superior option to ludwick and offensively to Hamilton, so he'd have a spot regardless.
    I can see this. I also think they should sign him asap and move on to other roster priorities. From a fan standpoint that would help the excitement for 2014 big time.

  8. #6
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Choo

    Sandoval is a statue at 3B. A great big buffet eating statue. I'd rather keep Frazier. Over the last two seasons they have about the same number of AB's similar power numbers, edge to Sandoval on OBP, though not too much.

    But Frazier's D is light year's better. I really want no part of Pablo Sandoval. He's a year or two away from 1B, and his numbers then look really bad.

    The difference offensively between Sandoval and Frazier in 2013 was 22 hits. In 6 more AB's Frazier had more HR's, more triples, more doubles and more walks.

    No way do I want Sandoval over Frazier.
    Last edited by TRF; 10-24-2013 at 03:48 PM.
    Suck it up cupcake.

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  10. #7
    Member Norm Chortleton's Avatar
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    Re: Choo

    Quote Originally Posted by BungleBengals View Post
    The writer guesses that Choo gets 6 years at $100M which puts him at $16.67M a year.
    $16.67M a year = doable.
    6 years = dealbreaker.

    I would not want to go past 4 years, and even that may be pushing it.

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  12. #8
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    Re: Choo

    Quote Originally Posted by Norm Chortleton View Post
    $16.67M a year = doable.
    6 years = dealbreaker.

    I would not want to go past 4 years, and even that may be pushing it.
    I think that 6 years is definitely pushing it. Which is why I wonder if that 6th year can be a mutual or team option. I know Boras is a hard negotiator, but after the Bourn and Lohse failures last year, maybe he lets us get away with an option like that for 6th year with a sizeable buyout or something.
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  13. #9
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    Re: Choo

    Quote Originally Posted by Norm Chortleton View Post
    $16.67M a year = doable.
    6 years = dealbreaker.

    I would not want to go past 4 years, and even that may be pushing it.
    I wonder what you think his split vs RHP and / or his overall OBP will look like at 36? Is it a stretch to think he could still OPS .800 and OBP .375 vs RHP in 2019? I don't know, it seems possible to me.

  14. #10
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Choo

    It does NOT add to the teams offense to get Sandoval. He's less than Frazier. And he's a defensive liability in comparison. He weakens the infield, and his girth will force a position change sooner rather than later.

    If Frazier has the exact same number of XBH's next year, and simply reaches base 20 more times, a base hit or walk extra per week, he's got a .780 OPS. If he add 10 hits, and his XBH's are 1/3 of his hit total, you are looking at an .800 OPS with stellar defense.

    Moving Frazier off 3B is a bad idea.
    Suck it up cupcake.

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  16. #11
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    Re: Choo

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    It does NOT add to the teams offense to get Sandoval. He's less than Frazier. And he's a defensive liability in comparison. He weakens the infield, and his girth will force a position change sooner rather than later.

    Moving Frazier off 3B is a bad idea.
    Sandoval (26 years old start of 2014)
    2013 BA: .278 OBP: .341 SLG: .417 OPS: .758 14 HR 79 RBI
    Career BA: .298 OBP: .351 SLG: .476 OPS: .827 20 HR 89 RBI (162 game average)

    Frazier (28 years old start of 2014)
    2013 BA: .234 OBP: .314 SLG: .407 OPS: .721 19 HR 73 RBI
    Career BA: .249 OBP: .318 SLG: .446 OPS: .764 22 HR 79 RBI (162 game average)

    Also, Pablo is a switch hitter hitting in pitcher friendly ballpark.

    Pablo's weight problem can be easily fixed. Frazier's plate approach, not so much.
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  18. #12
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    Re: Choo

    Quote Originally Posted by BungleBengals View Post
    Sandoval (26 years old start of 2014)
    2013 BA: .278 OBP: .341 SLG: .417 OPS: .758 14 HR 79 RBI
    Career BA: .298 OBP: .351 SLG: .476 OPS: .827 20 HR 89 RBI (162 game average)

    Frazier (28 years old start of 2014)
    2013 BA: .234 OBP: .314 SLG: .407 OPS: .721 19 HR 73 RBI
    Career BA: .249 OBP: .318 SLG: .446 OPS: .764 22 HR 79 RBI (162 game average)

    Also, Pablo is a switch hitter hitting in pitcher friendly ballpark.

    Pablo's weight problem can be easily fixed. Frazier's plate approach, not so much.
    Thank you. Frazier has a long way to go to be Sandoval. And he's already two years behind.

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  20. #13
    Knowledge Is Good Big Klu's Avatar
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    Re: Choo

    Quote Originally Posted by BungleBengals View Post
    Pablo's weight problem can be easily fixed. Frazier's plate approach, not so much.
    Not so fast, my friend.

    I submit that Frazier's plate approach will be easier to fix than Sandoval's weight problem. Pablo will eat himself out of the game by the time he is 30.
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  22. #14
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Choo

    Quote Originally Posted by BungleBengals View Post
    Also, Pablo is a switch hitter hitting in pitcher friendly ballpark.

    Pablo's weight problem can be easily fixed. Frazier's plate approach, not so much.
    If we look at last year, basically Sandoval had .030 more OBP than Frazier, but worse defense. Sure, Sandoval might bounce back, might get in shape, and might get a boost from the GAB, but is that worth paying another 6-8 million for (with less years)? Seems very risky. If we're going to gamble on a bounceback candidate, I'd rather pull Phillips off the trading block and hope his hand was the reason he had a back second half.

    I agree, it's unlikely Frasier will ever be a high OBP guy, but an .030 edge is only reaching base 18 more times over 600 ABs.. The defense Frazier gives is worth that hit.
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    Re: Choo

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    If we look at last year, basically Sandoval had .030 more OBP than Frazier, but worse defense. Sure, Sandoval might bounce back, might get in shape, and might get a boost from the GAB, but is that worth paying another 6-8 million for (with less years)? Seems very risky. If we're going to gamble on a bounceback candidate, I'd rather pull Phillips off the trading block and hope his hand was the reason he had a back second half.

    I agree, it's unlikely Frasier will ever be a high OBP guy, but an .030 edge is only reaching base 18 more times over 600 ABs.. The defense Frazier gives is worth that hit.
    Sandoval had a 119 OPS+. Frazier had a 96 OPS+.

    I'd submit that it isn't Sandoval who needs to "bounce back."

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