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Thread: Choo

  1. #46
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Choo

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    A LF instead of 3B? This sounds like the Reds are one hitter away. IMO they need to upgrade multiple positions offensively.

    And I still don't see anyone suggesting that Frazier's spike in grounders or low line drive rate were a fluke or can be expected to change next year. If so, then why?

    Sandoval is a lifetime .827 OPS player over six MLB seasons. Despite his fall off he still had an OPS+ 23 points better than Frazier.
    23 points is really nothing. you are missing the bigger picture.

    I see Frazier as a sophomore slump one year removed from an .827 OPS. Can he rebound? .261 .316 .523 .839 this past September. Small sample to be sure, but he's athletic. I see a huge rebound for him back to a lower to mid .800 OPS and an increase in HR's to the mid 20's. Todd had 0 HR's in May and only 1 in July. that's clearly an aberration. his average the other four months was 4.5. I can see him hitting 26 HR's next year.

    Meanwhile Sandoval keeps getting bigger. He'll be 27 next year, age prime year, but his OPS last year was over 150 points lower than two years ago. He's not getting smaller. He's not gaining speed. And he'll be worse defensively next year if the weight doesn't come off. And honestly, how much of 262 do you expect him to lose over the winter?

    Panda makes ZERO sense for the Reds.
    Suck it up cupcake.

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  4. #47
    Member SidneySlicker's Avatar
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    Re: Choo

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    irrelevant. it's the singles that matter. Sandoval may not have k'd 50 extra times, but he only reached base 19 more times.

    19 times over 24 weeks. 3 fewer walks, 22 more singles.

    8 million for 19 times reaching 1B. And here is the kicker. Frazier scored more runs. 11 more in fact. Seing as how he had 8 more XBH's that sounds about right.

    8 million for 19 more times on base. No thanks.
    I love how some stats are "irrelevant" and some are not.

    Career
    Sandoval
    BA .298 OBP.351 SLG .476 OPS .827

    Frazier
    BA .249 OBP.318 SLG .446 OPS.764

    In a pitchers park for Sandoval vs a hitters park for Frazier

  5. #48
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    Re: Choo

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    23 points is really nothing. you are missing the bigger picture.

    I see Frazier as a sophomore slump one year removed from an .827 OPS. Can he rebound? .261 .316 .523 .839 this past September. Small sample to be sure, but he's athletic. I see a huge rebound for him back to a lower to mid .800 OPS and an increase in HR's to the mid 20's. Todd had 0 HR's in May and only 1 in July. that's clearly an aberration. his average the other four months was 4.5. I can see him hitting 26 HR's next year.

    Meanwhile Sandoval keeps getting bigger. He'll be 27 next year, age prime year, but his OPS last year was over 150 points lower than two years ago. He's not getting smaller. He's not gaining speed. And he'll be worse defensively next year if the weight doesn't come off. And honestly, how much of 262 do you expect him to lose over the winter?

    Panda makes ZERO sense for the Reds.
    Just saying Frazier is athletic is unconvincing. I'm no expert, but Todd could win the Olympic decathlon gold medal and it wouldn't help his hitting.

    Just from my arm chair, I thought Todd reached for outside pitches and pulled them into the ground very often last year. He has always had a long swing which hurts him against certain pitchers IMO.

    As a minor leaguer, the comments on Todd was that his unorthodox swing might not play in the big leagues. I just think the NL pitchers have caught up to him.

    His one excellent offensive attribute is power, but I don't see him improving overall without a lot of work. He could improve, but it will require change in his swing and/or approach.

    As for Sandoval, I see him as a gifted switch hitter with a good feel for putting balls in play and using the whole field. His power numbers have declined which is a concern, but could improve in GABP and with an uptick in strength/conditioning. But it would be a risk, true.

    But again, the Reds need more than a left fielder and if they stick with the same players they likely will get the same result. Just look at the numbers. They aren't all going to improve at several positions by magic.
    Last edited by Kc61; 10-25-2013 at 01:20 PM.

  6. #49
    Member SidneySlicker's Avatar
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    Re: Choo

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    23 points is really nothing. you are missing the bigger picture.

    I see Frazier as a sophomore slump one year removed from an .827 OPS. Can he rebound? .261 .316 .523 .839 this past September. Small sample to be sure, but he's athletic. I see a huge rebound for him back to a lower to mid .800 OPS and an increase in HR's to the mid 20's. Todd had 0 HR's in May and only 1 in July. that's clearly an aberration. his average the other four months was 4.5. I can see him hitting 26 HR's next year.

    Meanwhile Sandoval keeps getting bigger. He'll be 27 next year, age prime year, but his OPS last year was over 150 points lower than two years ago. He's not getting smaller. He's not gaining speed. And he'll be worse defensively next year if the weight doesn't come off. And honestly, how much of 262 do you expect him to lose over the winter?

    Panda makes ZERO sense for the Reds.
    Sando will be in a contract year next season, so in theory you are going to get his best.

    As for Frazier he averaged 1 hr for every 26 ab's in the minors and he's averaged 1 home run for every 24 ab's in the majors. Yeah I'd pretty much say that's what he is. Could he hit 26 hr's? Sure, but I think it's presumptuous to think that he will.

    This is about projection and i won't deny that the future is blurry for Sandoval with regards to his weight, but when I look at him I see a guy who HAS OPS'd .900+ two times in his career and Frazier who's best OPS is something in the .820's. Not to mention you would expect a bump in Sandoval's numbers playing in GABP. I'm not saying he wouldn't be a risk, but I do think that risk has a much higher potential reward than the status quo.

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  8. #50
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    Re: Choo

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    23 points is really nothing. you are missing the bigger picture.

    I see Frazier as a sophomore slump one year removed from an .827 OPS. Can he rebound? .261 .316 .523 .839 this past September. Small sample to be sure, but he's athletic. I see a huge rebound for him back to a lower to mid .800 OPS and an increase in HR's to the mid 20's. Todd had 0 HR's in May and only 1 in July. that's clearly an aberration. his average the other four months was 4.5. I can see him hitting 26 HR's next year.

    Meanwhile Sandoval keeps getting bigger. He'll be 27 next year, age prime year, but his OPS last year was over 150 points lower than two years ago. He's not getting smaller. He's not gaining speed. And he'll be worse defensively next year if the weight doesn't come off. And honestly, how much of 262 do you expect him to lose over the winter?

    Panda makes ZERO sense for the Reds.
    1.) Sophomore slumps would be more tolerable if a player is younger and can figure things out. Frazier is going to be 28 years old. I think it is more or less than he is being figured out and scouted by the rest of the league. Yes, he can fix his problems at the plate, but when there is a 27 year old developing and doing what he did last year swinging at pitches that bounce in the dirt, then you know something is wrong.

    2.) Panda makes ZERO sense? I am not sure what you define as what makes sense, but I watched the Reds struggle for consistent offensive production all year. Adding a guy who brings consistent offense as well as bringing back Choo, Votto, and Bruce is how you are going to solve those problems. I think Pablo makes a lot of sense for the Reds.
    2013 Attendance: 6-0
    4/3/13, 4/16/13, 4/17/13, 8/3/13, 8/21/13, 9/7/13

  9. #51
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    Re: Choo

    Back to the topic of this thread.

    Again, I did the math and found that the Reds could resign Choo for the 6 year $100M deal. If we gave him the average per year salary this year at $16.67M (opposed to maybe giving him a backloaded contract) it would put the payroll at $120M which is a little under 10% higher than the payroll this past offseason (about $110M).

    However, this leaves out any possible Arroyo or Parra signing and we would still need a backup INF.

    Thoughts?
    2013 Attendance: 6-0
    4/3/13, 4/16/13, 4/17/13, 8/3/13, 8/21/13, 9/7/13

  10. #52
    Member BungleBengals's Avatar
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    Re: Choo

    Back to the topic of this thread.

    Again, I did the math and found that the Reds could resign Choo for the 6 year $100M deal. If we gave him the average per year salary this year at $16.67M (opposed to maybe giving him a backloaded contract) it would put the payroll at $120M which is a little under 10% higher than the payroll this past offseason (about $110M).

    However, this leaves out any possible Arroyo or Parra signing and we would still need a backup INF.

    Thoughts?
    2013 Attendance: 6-0
    4/3/13, 4/16/13, 4/17/13, 8/3/13, 8/21/13, 9/7/13

  11. #53
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Choo

    Quote Originally Posted by SidneySlicker View Post
    I love how some stats are "irrelevant" and some are not.

    Career
    Sandoval
    BA .298 OBP.351 SLG .476 OPS .827

    Frazier
    BA .249 OBP.318 SLG .446 OPS.764

    In a pitchers park for Sandoval vs a hitters park for Frazier
    Why do I care what Sandoval did 3 years ago? Because the last two seasons, he's been a great big bag of meh at the plate. And one that cannot field.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  12. #54
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: Choo

    I don't mind the 5th and 6th years. I think he'll always have positive offensive value as a dominant platoon partner at the worst.

  13. #55
    Member Wonderful Monds's Avatar
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    Re: Choo

    In a neutral park this year, Sandoval hits .298/.364/.444. That would be huge to put at 3B for the Reds. The weight thing is a problem, but that's something that can be fixed, and being traded can be a big eye opener. Frazier doesn't really do it for me anymore. I would definitely be on board with Sandoval.
    They don't think it be like it is, but it do.
    Quote Originally Posted by Larry Schuler View Post
    He has also taught me that even when the Reds win it is important to focus on the fact that they could have lost.

  14. #56
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Choo

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    In a neutral park this year, Sandoval hits .298/.364/.444. That would be huge to put at 3B for the Reds. The weight thing is a problem, but that's something that can be fixed, and being traded can be a big eye opener. Frazier doesn't really do it for me anymore. I would definitely be on board with Sandoval.
    Trading away talent while adding salary to adding runs on offense, just to give them back away (and more) on defense, is a wonderful way to make your team more expensive without actually making it any better.

    As for his weight being something that "can be fixed", sure, it theoretically can be fixed. He is physically capable of losing the weight. But if his past behavior is any indication at all, he is not practically capable of doing so. He's capable of losing the weight in the same way that Adam Dunn is physically capable of making more contact. If we had a DH spot, it might make sense. But given that he has actually been less productive overall than Frazier the last two years, this is an idea rooted in a fantasy baseball mindset more than reality.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 10-25-2013 at 03:07 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  16. #57
    Member Wonderful Monds's Avatar
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    Re: Choo

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Trading away talent while adding salary to adding runs on offense, just to give them back away (and more) on defense, is a wonderful way to make your team more expensive without actually making it any better.
    Giving away runs on defense? With Sandoval, who is a positive defender for his career?
    They don't think it be like it is, but it do.
    Quote Originally Posted by Larry Schuler View Post
    He has also taught me that even when the Reds win it is important to focus on the fact that they could have lost.

  17. #58
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    Re: Choo

    Price named Frazier, Cozart, and Mesoraco by name as players he thought still had I ceilings, and could provide offensive punch. He also said that they would need to evaluate to see where they could upgrade at for the offense.

    I don't know if Sandoval is the answer, but he might be the type of player the look into, expiring contract with some offensive upside left.

  18. #59
    Member SidneySlicker's Avatar
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    Re: Choo

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    In a neutral park this year, Sandoval hits .298/.364/.444. That would be huge to put at 3B for the Reds. The weight thing is a problem, but that's something that can be fixed, and being traded can be a big eye opener. Frazier doesn't really do it for me anymore. I would definitely be on board with Sandoval.
    Because he's proven in his career that he has the ability to be an elite batter. Todd Frazier has never done such. If you are going to have the choice of two players coming off of similar seasons, it only seems logical to choose the one who's shown the offensive ability to be a two time all star in his career over one who's been ordinary to below average. You can't seriously tell me that you base your opinions of a player on one season.

  19. #60
    Member Wonderful Monds's Avatar
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    Re: Choo

    Quote Originally Posted by SidneySlicker View Post
    Because he's proven in his career that he has the ability to be an elite batter. Todd Frazier has never done such. If you are going to have the choice of two players coming off of similar seasons, it only seems logical to choose the one who's shown the offensive ability to be a two time all star in his career over one who's been ordinary to below average. You can't seriously tell me that you base your opinions of a player on one season.
    Did you...quote the wrong post maybe?
    They don't think it be like it is, but it do.
    Quote Originally Posted by Larry Schuler View Post
    He has also taught me that even when the Reds win it is important to focus on the fact that they could have lost.


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