Choo

[gilpdawg]

mth123, here is a question for you.

Frazier(850 PA) vs R: .240 .316 .423 .323wOBA, 101wRC+
Bruce(1058 PA) vs L: .234 .306 .438 .325wOBA, 99wRC+

Is Bruce a platoon player, too?

There should be more platoons then there are. The inane practice of having 12 pitchers on a staff has made it almost impossible.

[mth123]

How about Brandon Phillips?

Phillips(4104 PA) vs R: .265 .313 .409 .315wOBA, 90wRC+

Batters vs R(2012~2013)

He's the poster child for splitty RH bat. In 2013 he had a respectable .742 OPS against LHP as opposed to a detrimental .689 against RHP. He's actually a lot more balanced than he was a few years ago. He, Cozart and Frazier (and Mesoraco) are all basically the same guy and it's a lot of why this offense is so easy for teams to make look lethargic for long periods of time. The last couple years, Ludwick and Heisey have also been similar. The Reds don't have money or talent to go out and get guys who are good against both RHP and LHP. RH hitters who can hit well against RHP are generally among the top players in the game and adding a couple to upgrade some of these offensively average to below average spots would probably cost a significant amount of money and most of the actual top talent the Reds have in the farm. What is more realistically done, IMO, is to add a couple of role playing lefty hitters who can split time with these guys to upgrade these spots by taking PAs away from these guys in situations where they struggle most.

An Eric Chavez, AJ Pierzynski and David Dejesus trio as a backfill for Choo (for roughly the same cost) and as replacements for Hannahanahanigan might go a long way toward somewhat filling the lead-off role and beefing up a couple line-up spots. Chavez/Frazier would make 3B a plus offensive spot. Same at Catcher with Pierzynski/Mesoraco. Dejesus/Heisey platooning in CF wouldn't be as productive as Choo, but it wouldn't be the black hole the position looks to be by going with In-House options until Hamilton gets ready. If the Reds could find a decent 400 PA lefty hitting middle IF to replace Izturis who could play some second and SS to let Cozart and Phillips sit more against tougher RHP, that would be ideal, but I'm having a hard time identifying an actual player who would fit (before he was dealt, I thought that Didi Gregorious had the potential to be a good fit with those two). If those players were acquired, IMO, only Dejesus/Heisey should be a straight platoon. The others should be tandem spots with the veterans Chavez and Pierzynski spotting in against the exact match-ups that give our splitty RH guys trouble. IMO, Mesoraco is the only RH bat on the roster who has the potential to be an every day guy who hits well against RHP. Unfortunately, as a catcher, he's going to need time off anyway. May as well get a LH bat to share the job 1.) so Mes can rest when it's most advantageous match-up wise and 2.) could handle a bigger role if Mesoraco fails to develop and settles in as a lefty killer.

I'm not saying teams should set out to get platoons everywhere, but this group of Reds players are especially in need of help against RHP. Adding a lefty or two who may struggle against RHP to share the jobs with the in house guys might be a cost effective way to upgrade. Having those LH Hitters is valuable. It's fairly easy to find RH bats who hit well against LHP to pair with them.

[Kc61]

In their everyday lineup, all three teams have bad hitters at the bottom of their lineup.

Red Sox and Cardinals have more good hitters than the Reds. Not exactly a news flash. But all three have bad hitters at the end of their lineup.

Freese, Jay (as third outfielder) and Drew would have been upgrades in the Reds lineup. Based on wRC+ the Reds batting order was four men deep, with Paul on the bench, and Frazier at 100 is the fourth.

[mth123]

The first thing you have to do is check their numbers.

Pierzynski(4739 PA) vs R: .287 .329 .438 .330wOBA, 98wRC+
Mesoraco(452 PA) vs R: .199 .257 .324 .252wOBA, 53wRC+
Heisey(353 PA) vs L: .226 .284 .408 .301wOBA, 85wRC+
DeJesus(3843 PA) vs R: .289 .365 .447 .355wOBA, 117wRC+

Already looked at the numbers the Pierzynski's numbers against RHP that you posted above fit well with Mes .874 OPS vs LHP. Dejesus against RHP is a huge upgrade. Heisey against LHP had an .810 OPS in 2013 vs his .622 vs RHP. Heisey's career numbers are skewed IMO. He was being spotted in by Dusty to favorable match-ups which gave him the appearance of being better against RHP than he really is. He's been exposed the last couple of years, but I think he's OK against LHP. He was much better against LHP in the minor leagues. Heisey would be the weakest link in this group, but RH Hitting OF who can hit LHP aren't so rare that the Reds couldn't find a partner for Dejesus. Get the guys who can hit against RHP first. That is who they are facing 70% of the time.

[757690]

Freese, Jay (as third outfielder) and Drew would have been upgrades in the Reds lineup. Based on wRC+ the Reds batting order was four men deep, with Paul on the bench, and Frazier at 100 is the fourth.

All three teams had crappy hitters at the end of their lineup. That wasn't the Reds problem on offense. The Reds problem on offense was that they had too many crappy hitters all throughout their lineup.

[REDREAD]

Reds: 2 great hitters, 1 good hitter, 2 average hitters and 9 bad hitters.
.

Ok, I'm going to guess here how you sorted.
Great: Votto, Choo
Good: Bruce
Average: Phillips, and ?
So that means we have: Frazier, Cozart, Catcher, and LF left.. One you said was average, the other 3 are "bad".

Cozart: if you sort on OPS, he's 13th in baseball among those that have enough at bats.. That seems to mean he's at least average offensively.

Frazier: Sort by OPS, he's 14th, that means average offensively.

I'll give you that LF and C were disasters last year, but it seems like we have at least 3 average players, and 2 bad starters. Mez has upside, and hopefully a winter of rest helps Ludwick. I'm not saying the Reds should stand pat, but it's really not a disaster.




Links:
http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable.js...39;&extended=0


http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable.js...39;&extended=0

[RadfordVA]

Ok, I'm going to guess here how you sorted.
Great: Votto, Choo
Good: Bruce
Average: Phillips, and ?
So that means we have: Frazier, Cozart, Catcher, and LF left.. One you said was average, the other 3 are "bad".

Cozart: if you sort on OPS, he's 13th in baseball among those that have enough at bats.. That seems to mean he's at least average offensively.

Frazier: Sort by OPS, he's 14th, that means average offensively.

I'll give you that LF and C were disasters last year, but it seems like we have at least 3 average players, and 2 bad starters. Mez has upside, and hopefully a winter of rest helps Ludwick. I'm not saying the Reds should stand pat, but it's really not a disaster.

This is what makes for some really hard decisions. The Reds have players who are just good enough to hold out hope they will improve. But having that many players in lineup at the same time led to only 3 regulars with above average ops+.

Most other playoff teams had about 7 or 8 players on their team doing that. When looking at it individually you can make a case for all Frazier, Cozart, Phillips, LF and Catchers all keeping their positions for various reasons. But when looking at the unbalanced lineup as a whole you really need to cross off a couple of those question marks and add proven production. Easier said then done of course but tough decisions need to be made to prevent the same lack of balance of repeating.

[Kc61]

Cozart: if you sort on OPS, he's 13th in baseball among those that have enough at bats.. That seems to mean he's at least average offensively.

Frazier: Sort by OPS, he's 14th, that means average offensively.

I'll give you that LF and C were disasters last year, but it seems like we have at least 3 average players, and 2 bad starters. Mez has upside, and hopefully a winter of rest helps Ludwick. I'm not saying the Reds should stand pat, but it's really not a disaster.

Frazier was indeed 14th in OPS among qualified third baseman, but there were only 19 of them. He was 14 of 19 of qualified third baseman. That's not average.

Cozart was indeed 13th in OPS among qualified shortstops, but there were only 17 of them. He was 13 of 17 qualified shortstops. That's not average.

Limiting the universe to qualified players is problematic because some teams platoon, or rotate, or have injured starters. So many teams man these positions with guys having too few PAs to qualify.

But based on the qualified players, using OPS, both Frazier and Cozart were well below average.

[RadfordVA]

Frazier was indeed 14th in OPS among qualified third baseman, but there were only 19 of them. He was 14 of 19 of qualified third baseman. That's not average.

Cozart was indeed 13th in OPS among qualified shortstops, but there were only 17 of them. He was 13 of 17 qualified shortstops. That's not average.

Limiting the universe to qualified players is problematic because some teams platoon, or rotate, or have injured starters. So many teams man these positions with guys having too few PAs to qualify.

But based on the qualified players, using OPS, both Frazier and Cozart were well below average.

Better way to look at it.

Reds 3rd Baseman were 12th out of 15th in NL in OPS.

Reds SS were 10th out of 15th in NL in OPS.

[Old school 1983]

He's the poster child for splitty RH bat. In 2013 he had a respectable .742 OPS against LHP as opposed to a detrimental .689 against RHP. He's actually a lot more balanced than he was a few years ago. He, Cozart and Frazier (and Mesoraco) are all basically the same guy and it's a lot of why this offense is so easy for teams to make look lethargic for long periods of time. The last couple years, Ludwick and Heisey have also been similar. The Reds don't have money or talent to go out and get guys who are good against both RHP and LHP. RH hitters who can hit well against RHP are generally among the top players in the game and adding a couple to upgrade some of these offensively average to below average spots would probably cost a significant amount of money and most of the actual top talent the Reds have in the farm. What is more realistically done, IMO, is to add a couple of role playing lefty hitters who can split time with these guys to upgrade these spots by taking PAs away from these guys in situations where they struggle most.

An Eric Chavez, AJ Pierzynski and David Dejesus trio as a backfill for Choo (for roughly the same cost) and as replacements for Hannahanahanigan might go a long way toward somewhat filling the lead-off role and beefing up a couple line-up spots. Chavez/Frazier would make 3B a plus offensive spot. Same at Catcher with Pierzynski/Mesoraco. Dejesus/Heisey platooning in CF wouldn't be as productive as Choo, but it wouldn't be the black hole the position looks to be by going with In-House options until Hamilton gets ready. If the Reds could find a decent 400 PA lefty hitting middle IF to replace Izturis who could play some second and SS to let Cozart and Phillips sit more against tougher RHP, that would be ideal, but I'm having a hard time identifying an actual player who would fit (before he was dealt, I thought that Didi Gregorious had the potential to be a good fit with those two). If those players were acquired, IMO, only Dejesus/Heisey should be a straight platoon. The others should be tandem spots with the veterans Chavez and Pierzynski spotting in against the exact match-ups that give our splitty RH guys trouble. IMO, Mesoraco is the only RH bat on the roster who has the potential to be an every day guy who hits well against RHP. Unfortunately, as a catcher, he's going to need time off anyway. May as well get a LH bat to share the job 1.) so Mes can rest when it's most advantageous match-up wise and 2.) could handle a bigger role if Mesoraco fails to develop and settles in as a lefty killer.

I'm not saying teams should set out to get platoons everywhere, but this group of Reds players are especially in need of help against RHP. Adding a lefty or two who may struggle against RHP to share the jobs with the in house guys might be a cost effective way to upgrade. Having those LH Hitters is valuable. It's fairly easy to find RH bats who hit well against LHP to pair with them.

I really like your concept here! Most postseason plans seem hell bent on bringing choo back. Using his money to bring in quality platoon partners to strengthen the bench and the lineup as a whole is a very good idea IMO.

[Kc61]

Better way to look at it.

Reds 3rd Baseman were 12th out of 15th in NL in OPS.

Reds SS were 10th out of 15th in NL in OPS.

Yes, right, although this includes the backups on teams.

We might look at OPS and wRC+ for third basemen and shortstops with, say, 400 PAs this past year. Presumably that picks up the starters for most teams, even if they don't qualify. Presumably this cuts out backups.

At third base, using 400 PAs, Frazier is 10th in OPS and 11th in wRC+ of 14 NL players. At third base, using 400 PAs, Frazier is 16th in OPS and 17th in wRC+ of 28 MLB players.

At shortstop, using 400 PAs, Cozart is 9th in OPS and in wRC+ of 12 NL players. Cozart is 18th in OPS and in wRC+ of 24 MLB players.

[RadfordVA]

Yes, right, although this includes the backups on teams.

We might look at OPS and wRC+ for third basemen and shortstops with, say, 400 PAs this past year. Presumably that picks up the starters for most teams, even if they don't qualify. Presumably this cuts out backups.

At third base, using 400 PAs, Frazier is 10th in OPS and 11th in wRC+ of 14 NL players. At third base, using 400 PAs, Frazier is 16th in OPS and 17th in wRC+ of 28 MLB players.

At shortstop, using 400 PAs, Cozart is 9th in OPS and in wRC+ of 12 NL players. Cozart is 18th in OPS and in wRC+ of 24 MLB players.

I personally like to account for backups too. If a player is not healthy enough or good enough to play all the games then what they are having to be replaced with count to me.

When sorting just by individuals you get players mixed in who accumulated stats that were not always at those positions like Prado and Michael Young at 3B. So the Reds were below average at these positions and were asking Cozart and Frazier to do most of the playing.

Whatever your preference is the Reds did not get average performance from these positions at the plate.

[mdccclxix]

Walt on Sirius XM with Mike Ferrin today about Phillips, payroll, Chapman, and more:

https://soundcloud.com/siriusxmsport...-jocketty-they

[757690]

Walt on Sirius XM with Mike Ferrin today about Phillips, payroll, Chapman, and more:

https://soundcloud.com/siriusxmsport...-jocketty-they

Sounds like Phillips is good as gone.

[Brutus]

Walt on Sirius XM with Mike Ferrin today about Phillips, payroll, Chapman, and more:

https://soundcloud.com/siriusxmsport...-jocketty-they

It sounded like Jocketty inadvertently spilled the beans they aren't planning on re-signing Bronson when he said "we do" have a spot (open) and then quickly corrected his statement to say "we might" if Arroyo leaves.

His answer about not shopping Brandon sounded sincere. He left open the possibility of doing it, but if they do, it felt like it would be more for baseball and financial reasons than anything related to what he's done or said.