Maybe he rebounds, I don't know. But if the Reds keep the 3B, SS and C positions all the same next year it is a major risk.
Sandoval seems to be gettable. A few years back he was an excellent third baseman with a higher UZR than Frazier now has. Panda's slipped back, perhaps due to conditioning, but he is still young.
I'd prefer a truly top star at one of these positions, but assuming money is an issue, Sandoval is a good choice IMO. He consistently OBPs over .340 and could add power to his normal season playing in GABP.
Ok, first, if Sandoval's weight is easily corrected why hasn't it been corrected? He gets bigger every year.
2, his power numbers are in a two year decline. He may play in a park that suppresses HR's a bit, but it's a double and triple haven. GABP is the opposite, yet Frazier was better in the power category in doubles, triples and HR's in only 6 more AB's.
WAR isn't my favorite stat, but there is something to be said for Frazier here defensively. his .7 WAR was third in the NL for players that qualified. Panda was -0.4, dead last.
Sandoval's overall WAR in 2013, 2.5. Fraziers, 2.7. Clearly Sandoval had a better season offensively, but his defense all but negated that in comparison to Frazier.
As for approach. Frazier jumped his walks by 20 from 2012 to 2013. Frazier had a .269 BABIP to Sandoval's .301. Considering the XBH totals, that screams that Frazier was at least a little unlucky when it came to hitting singles. All through his professional career, Frazier has shown that if he has a normal BABIP, he's an .800+ OPS bat. Now he's shown that he's also a top tier defender.
You do not upgrade LF by weakening 3B. You do it by getting a better LF.
Suck it up cupcake.
150 fewer AB's Juan Francisco had better power numbers than Panda.
Think about that.
Suck it up cupcake.
His ground ball rate spiked. Went from 33% to 42%. Huge increase in grounders.
The increased grounders replaced line drives (rate down to 18.1% one of the lowest on the club) and his fly ball rate declined by five percentage points.
A power hitter without top speed does himself no good constantly beating the ball into the ground. He also hurts his BABIP with a low line drive rate. He hurts his homers by a lower fly ball rate.
These problems require work and change to rectify IMO. Not saying it can't be done, but it's not just random luck.
Old school 1983 (10-25-2013)
I'd go after Sandoval if he's attainable. He's got a big body, but no one is incapable of losing weight. Put him on a strenuous cardio program, and make sure he cuts out the sweets and deep fried crap. Any personal trainer worth his salt could get him to drop 30 by spring.
Or just fine him $1000 every time you catch him eating donuts...
E: From the gifs thread:
Last edited by jhiller21; 10-25-2013 at 12:50 AM.
"High-OBP players who have good plate discipline tend to age well."
Highest OBP among position players(2008~2013)
I think that Holliday is a comparable player to Choo and that if Reds re-sign Choo, he will become another version of Matt Holliday who has been consistently so good for the Cards.
Matt Holliday(a Boras client) after signing a 7 yrs/$120M(10-16) contract.
Granted, both of those contracts came before signing top free agents would require you to forfeit bonus money in the upcoming draft. Still, the more I think about Choo - and the Yankees wanting him, badly - the more I see him as a $120-$150 million guaranteed player.
I think he will get 6 years with an AAV of $20-25 mil.
". . . acquiring J. Blanton from Oakland for, apparently, Bailey/Cueto, Votto and a lesser prospect. I do it in a second . . . The Reds' equation this year is simple: Make Matt Belisle your #3 starter . . . trade for Blanton, win 85 or more, be in the mix all summer." - Paul Daugherty, Feb. 8, 2008
All I know is that this team is at a crossroads. Upper management fired Baker because he couldn't get them to the next level. And I have no problem with that decision. But there are no more scapegoats left. The pressure is squarely on Bob/Walt now. And if they lose one of the best lead-off guys - which appears very likely - have no solution for the #2 spot, and really the #4 spot, then it doesn't matter who the manager is next season IMO because Bryan Price can't walk on water.
Its' going to take some bold (daring) off-season moves to seriously contend with the Cards and Pirates in 2014.
"panic" only comes from having real expectations
I like Fraxier,my Mamaw was a Frazier. He can sing.
May the Lord bless
Dude is fat, he's going to get fatter and he's a statue at 3B.
I repeat, offensively, he MIGHT be marginally better than Frazier. His last two seasons, it's probably a wash. Defensively it ain't close.
You do not weaken 3B to strengthen LF. You strengthen LF by getting a LF.
Suck it up cupcake.
Weight issues be danged I just don't see how anyone can say Pablo Sandoval is not that much better than Todd Frazier. That blows my mind. I like Todd by all accounts he seems like a great guy , but I think he's an offensive liability. I think he is what he is at the plate. Some act like he's 23 or 24 yrs old and he's just totally going to turn things around. Reality is Frazier is 28, and that's not to say he can't improve, but I just don't see it.
Last edited by SidneySlicker; 10-25-2013 at 10:07 AM.