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Thread: Choo

  1. #166
    Member kpresidente's Avatar
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    Re: Choo

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    But he did outright say he prefers Chapman be in the rotation. That doesn't mean he'll end up there, as he pointed out they felt they needed him in the bullpen, but Jocketty said clearly he preferred Chapman as a starter.
    Here's the quote, word for word...

    "There's a lot of plusses with him in the bullpen as a closer and a shutdown guy who has done a great job for us. I, personally, have been a guy who felt he should have been a starter all along, but the need at the time was for him to be a closer and it made sense, so we went along with it. We'll just have to wait and see what makes sense. You know Bronson's a free agent, so we do, uh, we may have a hole in the rotation but [closer] will also be a very tough position to fill at the end of the game."

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  4. #167
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Choo

    Quote Originally Posted by kpresidente View Post
    Here's the quote, word for word...

    "There's a lot of plusses with him in the bullpen as a closer and a shutdown guy who has done a great job for us. I, personally, have been a guy who felt he should have been a starter all along, but the need at the time was for him to be a closer and it made sense, so we went along with it. We'll just have to wait and see what makes sense. You know Bronson's a free agent, so we do, uh, we may have a hole in the rotation but [closer] will also be a very tough position to fill at the end of the game."
    Thanks for taking the time to transcribe that as I admittedly was too lazy to do it myself. I still maintain that slip of "so we do, uh, we may have a hole in the rotation" might be telling.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  5. #168
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Choo

    With Chapman, it sounds like it's basically, "Yes, we'd like him to be in the rotation. However, we're not going to make any final decisions until we have a full coaching staff and everybody has a chance to provide input."
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  7. #169
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    Re: Choo

    Here's my issue with platooning Frazier...

    If we are going off of 2013 numbers, he wasn't particularly good at hitting lefties either. Better than righties, but...

    .236/.311/.471 isn't great. The slugging percentage is pretty good but as a whole it is nothing to write home about.

    If we are going off of 2012 numbers, does he need to be platooned at all?

    vs. LHP .298/.333/.524
    vs. RHP .262/.330/.487

    Just a few thoughts

  8. #170
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    Re: Choo

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    With Chapman, it sounds like it's basically, "Yes, we'd like him to be in the rotation. However, we're not going to make any final decisions until we have a full coaching staff and everybody has a chance to provide input."
    I also think they don't want to give other teams any indication of who they want in the rotation. Making it clear that Chapman will be in the rotation will lower the trade value of any starter they may be interested in trading.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  9. #171
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Choo

    Quote Originally Posted by MoneyInTheBank View Post
    Here's my issue with platooning Frazier...

    If we are going off of 2013 numbers, he wasn't particularly good at hitting lefties either. Better than righties, but...

    .236/.311/.471 isn't great. The slugging percentage is pretty good but as a whole it is nothing to write home about.

    If we are going off of 2012 numbers, does he need to be platooned at all?

    vs. LHP .298/.333/.524
    vs. RHP .262/.330/.487

    Just a few thoughts
    2012 was his coming out year. I don't put stock in the first 200 to 300 innings a pitcher pitches or the first 400 PAs a hitter has. Too much unfamiliarity around the league. 2013 is what the numbers look like after the league adjusts to him. The question is whether he can adjust himself. He could, but looking at his splits as a minor leaguer, I'd say it's doubtful. This is a team that should be fighting for a play-off spot, you just can't take the chance that his minor league and 2013 numbers are the real him and be left with poor production in a line-up filled with similarly poor producers. Bringing in a veteran to share the job with him protects against that. If Frazier hits like he did in 2012, then you play him every day and be happy that you have really good depth for a change, if not, you have a guy who can excel at the very times when Frazier struggles most and the position stays productive.

    I also wouldn't make it a straight platoon. Frazier would still get 400 PAs which would mean at least 150 to 200 would be against RHP, but if he's struggling, I see no reason to leave the team in a position where he has to have 700 PAs because there are no alternatives. The team isn't going to get good production at 2B or SS. Two thirds of the OF and the catching spot is iffy as well. They need to do something to add productivity. The line-up was three deep in 2013 (and it wasn't really adequate IMO). One of those three is practically out the door. They can't just go with every marginal guy that they have in the line-up. All are good enough to hold down a spot as a hole plugger, but a line-up filled with those guys isn't up to snuff. Take the upgrades where they can. They may not be able to find a guy to tandem with Frazier and if not, they should look to upgrade elsewhere and get by with Frazier while hoping for a repeat of 2012, but if the opportunity to add a guy at 3B presents itself, it shouldn't be dismissed because Todd Frazier had a nice debut season.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  10. #172
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    Re: Choo

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    2012 was his coming out year. I don't put stock in the first 200 to 300 innings a pitcher pitches or the first 400 PAs a hitter has. Too much unfamiliarity around the league. 2013 is what the numbers look like after the league adjusts to him. The question is whether he can adjust himself. He could, but looking at his splits as a minor leaguer, I'd say it's doubtful. This is a team that should be fighting for a play-off spot, you just can't take the chance that his minor league and 2013 numbers are the real him and be left with poor production in a line-up filled with similarly poor producers. Bringing in a veteran to share the job with him protects against that. If Frazier hits like he did in 2012, then you play him every day and be happy that you have really good depth for a change, if not, you have a guy who can excel at the very times when Frazier struggles most and the position stays productive.

    I also wouldn't make it a straight platoon. Frazier would still get 400 PAs which would mean at least 150 to 200 would be against RHP, but if he's struggling, I see no reason to leave the team in a position where he has to have 700 PAs because there are no alternatives. The team isn't going to get good production at 2B or SS. Two thirds of the OF and the catching spot is iffy as well. They need to do something to add productivity. The line-up was three deep in 2013 (and it wasn't really adequate IMO). One of those three is practically out the door. They can't just go with every marginal guy that they have in the line-up. All are good enough to hold down a spot as a hole plugger, but a line-up filled with those guys isn't up to snuff. Take the upgrades where they can. They may not be able to find a guy to tandem with Frazier and if not, they should look to upgrade elsewhere and get by with Frazier while hoping for a repeat of 2012, but if the opportunity to add a guy at 3B presents itself, it shouldn't be dismissed because Todd Frazier had a nice debut season.
    I'm not saying leave Frazier alone. Not at all. I'm saying if you are basing a platoon on a repeat of last season, then should you really be looking for an outright replacement?

  11. #173
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Choo

    Quote Originally Posted by MoneyInTheBank View Post
    I'm not saying leave Frazier alone. Not at all. I'm saying if you are basing a platoon on a repeat of last season, then should you really be looking for an outright replacement?
    Again, then you're talking major cost in money and talent to find one. The Reds have neither to spare. If they did, we just sign Choo, Ellsbury and trade for Tulo and not worry about the other spots. Frazier's .782 OPS against LHP was more than adequate. If he could do the same against RHP, that would be one of the top five offensive 3B in the NL as opposed to one of the bottom few which is what the production last year was. Add his defense and he'd be an all star who makes the minimum. If he could only repeat last year while adding a LH Bat who is more productive against RHP, the position would be a clear strength on the cheap and that is what the team needs. No need to throw out the baby with the bathwater.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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  13. #174
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    Re: Choo

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Again, then you're talking major cost in money and talent to find one. The Reds have neither to spare. If they did, we just sign Choo, Ellsbury and trade for Tulo and not worry about the other spots. Frazier's .782 OPS against LHP was more than adequate. If he could do the same against RHP, that would be one of the top five offensive 3B in the NL as opposed to one of the bottom few which is what the production last year was.
    But if a guy can put up a .780 OPS against RH pitchers and can match Frazier's glove, why wouldn't other teams see him as a starter even if he does struggle against RH pitching? That's probably a 2-win player full time. I don't think that player's going to come cheap. They probably had similar ideas about using Hannahan that way but obviously he stunk.
    Last edited by kpresidente; 10-30-2013 at 02:30 AM.

  14. #175
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Choo

    Well you're right if it's a young player, but there are a couple journeyman with that profile who just can't play every day who wouldn't bust the budget. Eric Chavez would be the top choice and he played 2013 on a one year $3 Million deal. Even if the Reds had to double that, it could make 3B very productive by limiting Frazier's exposure to the tougher RHP a couple times per week and wouldn't bust the budget. Another name who hits well against RHP but can't play every day is Wilson Betemit. He was hurt most of last season and his defense isn't great, but he has hit well against RHP throughout his career and could spot in a couple times per week against RHP to add production. I'm sure there are a couple other guys.

    I don't think Hannahan is the best choice, but if the Reds are stuck with him, they should probably spot him in a couple times per week and hope for the best. Against RHP in small doses, he'd probably still be more productive than Frazier. He had a better OBP vs RHP in 2013 though it wasn't really good. I'd look for an upgrade and you are right, the population of guys who would fit is pretty small.
    Last edited by mth123; 10-30-2013 at 07:22 AM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  15. #176
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    Re: Choo

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Again, then you're talking major cost in money and talent to find one. The Reds have neither to spare. If they did, we just sign Choo, Ellsbury and trade for Tulo and not worry about the other spots. Frazier's .782 OPS against LHP was more than adequate. If he could do the same against RHP, that would be one of the top five offensive 3B in the NL as opposed to one of the bottom few which is what the production last year was. Add his defense and he'd be an all star who makes the minimum. If he could only repeat last year while adding a LH Bat who is more productive against RHP, the position would be a clear strength on the cheap and that is what the team needs. No need to throw out the baby with the bathwater.
    Now you are just going to extremes... why not just sign all the top free agents!

    Instead of looking to beat my point with a club, try to understand. As you've said before, most pitchers are right handed. If you are looking for a guy to hit right handed pitching, you are looking for a starter to be supplemented by Frazier (if you expect a repeat of last season), not the other way around.

    We will have to agree to disagree on whether that player would come "cheaply" (relative to the Reds budget) because I happen to agree with kpresidente

  16. #177
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    Re: Choo

    Quote Originally Posted by MoneyInTheBank View Post
    Here's my issue with platooning Frazier...

    If we are going off of 2013 numbers, he wasn't particularly good at hitting lefties either. Better than righties, but...

    .236/.311/.471 isn't great. The slugging percentage is pretty good but as a whole it is nothing to write home about.
    There were 2 3B in the NL last year with a better OPS than .782. If Frazier could do that for a whole season, my Mom will hear about it.

  17. #178
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    Re: Choo

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    It was only two minutes long if you have two minutes to spare. But if you don't:

    * Basically they're not shopping Brandon and that was a media created thing, but did note that they'll shop Brandon or anyone else if it's the right thing to do to improve the club

    * He advocates for Chapman to go to the rotation and he and Bryan Price will sit down after they finalize the staff and talk about that

    * Bronson being a free agent could impact whether they use Chapman in the rotation; slipped and said a spot is now open (implying they would not re-sign him), but quickly corrected himself to say something like 'if he leaves'

    * Said they are a small market but Bob wants to win and will stretch it to the limit if they have to do so

    * They want to re-sign Choo but they are discussing all sorts of options based on whether he stays or goes
    This is very telling to me. We are a small market team that is doing well in terms of revenue and we have a billionaire owner. We have been speculating that the Reds cannot afford Choo and cannot afford this person or that person. But this quote alone tells me that Castellini is not afraid to spend money to win. I do not think that he is going to spend so much that the Reds are 'in the red' but I think that he is not afraid to eat into the profits a bit to bring home a winner. Can't wait to see what happens after the WS ends. This is going to be a very interesting and hopefully reassuring offseason for the Reds. Multiple possible FAs and plenty of trade opportunities as well to go along with a very strong, young core of players on a 90 win team.
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  19. #179
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    Re: Choo

    This is going to be a very interesting and hopefully reassuring offseason for the Reds.
    Interesting, yes. Reassuring, I don't think so. They are going to sacrifice some talent along the way.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  20. #180
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Choo

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Frazier was indeed 14th in OPS among qualified third baseman, but there were only 19 of them. He was 14 of 19 of qualified third baseman. That's not average.

    Cozart was indeed 13th in OPS among qualified shortstops, but there were only 17 of them. He was 13 of 17 qualified shortstops. That's not average.

    Limiting the universe to qualified players is problematic because some teams platoon, or rotate, or have injured starters. So many teams man these positions with guys having too few PAs to qualify.

    But based on the qualified players, using OPS, both Frazier and Cozart were well below average.
    True, but what about teams like the Cubs.
    They patched together Luis Valbuena/Cody Ransom/Donnie Murphy
    at 3b. That combo is worse than Frazier.

    We have seen seasons where guys like XPaul and Heisey were given spot starts and excelled in OPS. I don't think most people would rank those guys ahead of LF that played everyday..

    Cozart and Frazier are also plus defenders. Sure, I know we started off using OPS, but if other clubs are platooning poor defenders (or giving them spot starts) at 3b, that shrinks the pool of true upgrades. Also, both players are cheap on a team with little financial room.

    If the Reds can find an upgrade at one of those positions, that's great.
    I wouldn't want to blow all our payflex on Sandoval or some other guy that's a marginal improvement at best. I just don't see how the Reds could bring in an impact bat at one of those positions like Tulo or David Wright, but maybe I'm wrong. Seems like the best case scenerio offensively would be to trade for a guy like Cleveland's Caberera and cross our fingers he has a big year in his last year before FA, but I question how much of an impact that would truly make in 2014, and Cleveland isn't going to give him away.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

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