Red Raindog (10-25-2013),RedsBrick (10-24-2013),TRF (10-24-2013),TSJ55 (10-24-2013)
Frazier hit .234 this year. I know all the chatter about BA being not important, but the guy is a corner player who hit .234.
Maybe he rebounds, I don't know. But if the Reds keep the 3B, SS and C positions all the same next year it is a major risk.
Sandoval seems to be gettable. A few years back he was an excellent third baseman with a higher UZR than Frazier now has. Panda's slipped back, perhaps due to conditioning, but he is still young.
I'd prefer a truly top star at one of these positions, but assuming money is an issue, Sandoval is a good choice IMO. He consistently OBPs over .340 and could add power to his normal season playing in GABP.
CoachBombay (10-28-2013),Old school 1983 (10-25-2013)
Ok, first, if Sandoval's weight is easily corrected why hasn't it been corrected? He gets bigger every year.
2, his power numbers are in a two year decline. He may play in a park that suppresses HR's a bit, but it's a double and triple haven. GABP is the opposite, yet Frazier was better in the power category in doubles, triples and HR's in only 6 more AB's.
WAR isn't my favorite stat, but there is something to be said for Frazier here defensively. his .7 WAR was third in the NL for players that qualified. Panda was -0.4, dead last.
Sandoval's overall WAR in 2013, 2.5. Fraziers, 2.7. Clearly Sandoval had a better season offensively, but his defense all but negated that in comparison to Frazier.
As for approach. Frazier jumped his walks by 20 from 2012 to 2013. Frazier had a .269 BABIP to Sandoval's .301. Considering the XBH totals, that screams that Frazier was at least a little unlucky when it came to hitting singles. All through his professional career, Frazier has shown that if he has a normal BABIP, he's an .800+ OPS bat. Now he's shown that he's also a top tier defender.
You do not upgrade LF by weakening 3B. You do it by getting a better LF.
Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.
Reds&BuckeyeGuy (10-25-2013)
150 fewer AB's Juan Francisco had better power numbers than Panda.
Think about that.
Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.
Reds&BuckeyeGuy (10-25-2013)
I don't know how Frazier gets to a .300 BABIP if he continues to hit as in 2013.
His ground ball rate spiked. Went from 33% to 42%. Huge increase in grounders.
The increased grounders replaced line drives (rate down to 18.1% one of the lowest on the club) and his fly ball rate declined by five percentage points.
A power hitter without top speed does himself no good constantly beating the ball into the ground. He also hurts his BABIP with a low line drive rate. He hurts his homers by a lower fly ball rate.
These problems require work and change to rectify IMO. Not saying it can't be done, but it's not just random luck.
Old school 1983 (10-25-2013)
I'd go after Sandoval if he's attainable. He's got a big body, but no one is incapable of losing weight. Put him on a strenuous cardio program, and make sure he cuts out the sweets and deep fried crap. Any personal trainer worth his salt could get him to drop 30 by spring.
Or just fine him $1000 every time you catch him eating donuts...
E: From the gifs thread:
Last edited by jhiller21; 10-25-2013 at 12:50 AM.
The key quote in that article is ""As a custom of the industry, prognostications by executives this time of year are dramatically divergent from the real market. I don't think anyone correctly predicted what Jayson Werth or Carl Crawford got."
Granted, both of those contracts came before signing top free agents would require you to forfeit bonus money in the upcoming draft. Still, the more I think about Choo - and the Yankees wanting him, badly - the more I see him as a $120-$150 million guaranteed player.
I think he will get 6 years with an AAV of $20-25 mil.
Stick to your guns.
All I know is that this team is at a crossroads. Upper management fired Baker because he couldn't get them to the next level. And I have no problem with that decision. But there are no more scapegoats left. The pressure is squarely on Bob/Walt now. And if they lose one of the best lead-off guys - which appears very likely - have no solution for the #2 spot, and really the #4 spot, then it doesn't matter who the manager is next season IMO because Bryan Price can't walk on water.
Its' going to take some bold (daring) off-season moves to seriously contend with the Cards and Pirates in 2014.
"In my day you had musicians who experimented with drugs. Now it's druggies experimenting with music" - Alfred G Clark (circa 1972)
Crumbley (10-25-2013),mdccclxix (10-25-2013),PedroBourbon (10-25-2013),redsfandan (10-25-2013),remdog (11-02-2013),Revering4Blue (10-25-2013)
I like Fraxier,my Mamaw was a Frazier. He can sing.
May the Lord bless
so, in 5 years in SF, where he gained weight every year, and played for a team with a HUGE payroll, they couldn't find any trainers in one of the most health conscious states in the country? really?
Dude is fat, he's going to get fatter and he's a statue at 3B.
I repeat, offensively, he MIGHT be marginally better than Frazier. His last two seasons, it's probably a wash. Defensively it ain't close.
You do not weaken 3B to strengthen LF. You strengthen LF by getting a LF.
Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.
*BaseClogger* (10-25-2013)
Weight issues be danged I just don't see how anyone can say Pablo Sandoval is not that much better than Todd Frazier. That blows my mind. I like Todd by all accounts he seems like a great guy , but I think he's an offensive liability. I think he is what he is at the plate. Some act like he's 23 or 24 yrs old and he's just totally going to turn things around. Reality is Frazier is 28, and that's not to say he can't improve, but I just don't see it.
Last edited by SidneySlicker; 10-25-2013 at 10:07 AM.
TheRedOne (10-29-2013)
If we look at last year, basically Sandoval had .030 more OBP than Frazier, but worse defense. Sure, Sandoval might bounce back, might get in shape, and might get a boost from the GAB, but is that worth paying another 6-8 million for (with less years)? Seems very risky. If we're going to gamble on a bounceback candidate, I'd rather pull Phillips off the trading block and hope his hand was the reason he had a back second half.
I agree, it's unlikely Frasier will ever be a high OBP guy, but an .030 edge is only reaching base 18 more times over 600 ABs.. The defense Frazier gives is worth that hit.
[Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob
Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!
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