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Thread: Homer Bailey

  1. #1
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    Homer Bailey

    What's the deal with Homer? Do you think he will sign a long term deal this offseason? (If so, what's your guess on $$ of the new deal.) If not, do the Reds move him this winter?, or just let him go as a Free Agent @ the end of next season?


    I've been reading alot of posts by people who want to trade Bailey for just Jurikson Profar and many comments about how the Reds may have to throw in another player to get this done.

    I think many people on here either a.) underrate Bailey, or b.) don't realize the value in return pitchers can bring on the market.


    In the summer, the Rangers traded for 1/2 a season of Matt Garza. The Cubs got back, Olt, Edwards, Grimm and a player to be named later. You are looking @ a B+ player in Olt. Grimm is a B prospect and Edwards will be a B+/B prospect @ the start of next year. He has had an outstanding season. Not to mention a PTBNL, which will be the C+/B variety.

    Garza's WAR was 1.5 last year with the Cubs and 1.2 the season before. Bailey's WAR was 2.5 and 3.2 last year.

    The previous offseason, the Rays trade Shields and Wade Davis for Wil Myers (A- prospect), Odorizzi (B+) and 2 other prospects.

    Shields was 3 years older than Bailey @ the time, and his WAR the previous 3 seasons was a combined 6.4 wins. Bailey's last 3 years is 6.1 wins.

    The advantage for Bailey is he is younger, he is entering his prime and he has continued to show steady improvement the past 3 years.

    If the Reds trade him to Texas, the other advantage for Texas is that they would probably be able to resign him as Homer wouldn't mind staying in his home state of Texas. (Unlike Garza where when they signed him, they knew it was for 1/2 a season only)

    If the Reds feel like they can't resign Bailey or can't afford to resign him to a monster deal, then the Reds will be able to get quite a bit back in return for Bailey.

    If the Reds and Rangers make a trade, I'd be ecstatic if the Reds ended up with Profar, Rougned Odor (2b) and Wilmer Font. (RP)

    If the Rangers want to hold onto Profar, because they plan on installing him @ 2b and moving Kinsler to 1B, I would be quite happy to replace him with Luis Sardinas (SS) and a pitcher like Neil Ramirez.

    If the Reds got Odor and Sardinas, it would be quite the coup. Odor was basically putting up the stats of Profar in AA @ the same age, without the fanfare. He fills in nicely as the LT replacement @ 2b. And Sardinas would be ready for the majors if all goes well in 3 years-- perfect timing to replace Cozart when he starts to become more expensive.

    Anyway, some of these comments about trading Bailey for Bautista or just Profar or 1 other B+ prospect are kind of ridiculous. Good starting pitchers are hard to come by, and it takes alot to trade for them. (As we saw when we traded for Latos) If the Reds aren't able to resign Bailey to a long term (LT) deal this winter, they have the opportunity to restock a farm system that is really lacking in depth outside of the top 3/4 prospects.

    Sure, the Reds may take a step back next year by trading Bailey (and not resigning Choo) but it would free up cash to resign other players like Latos and Cueto and help restock the farm system which will help in the long run.

    It would be nice if the Reds had an unlimited payroll, but to think that in 3 years, the Reds can be paying big money to Votto, Bruce, BP, Choo, Cueto, Latos, Bailey and Chapman is unrealistic.

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    joshua (11-09-2013)

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  4. #2
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    Re: Homer Bailey

    A lot of great points

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    Re: Homer Bailey

    A lot of Reds fans underrate Bailey. He had the best xFIP for any of our starters (not counting Cueto). He had a better K/9 and BB/9 than Latos. I don't want to lose him, but I don't think the Reds have the money to give him the contract he is going to desire.

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    Re: Homer Bailey

    What you're leaving out is that he's been an inconsistent, sometimes brilliant (2 no-no's), .500 pitcher, who has shown no desire to stay here, at this point. Problem with giving a LTC is you don't know which Bailey you can count on. Other teams obviously know this too, so I'm not sure a big haul could be had, if you trade him.

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    Re: Homer Bailey

    W/L record for a pitcher is not a good stat.

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    goreds2 (10-28-2013), joshua (11-09-2013), Reds&BuckeyeGuy (12-09-2013), villain612 (11-27-2013)

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    Re: Homer Bailey

    I like Homer, good No. 2 or 3 guy on your staff, but right now to me You MUST get Latos signed first to a deal, I would offer him 5 years around 70-75 million. After that deal gets done I look to Homer.

  10. #7
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    Re: Homer Bailey

    Bailey vs. Latos reminds me alot of the Bengals situation with Carlos Dunlap and Michael Johnson this year. You might be able to leverage that into getting one of them signed earlier. Put a deal on the table and see if one of the two will expect. The Reds have to keep one of the two, ideally they would keep to, but IDK how the dollars would work.

    At least getting one signed allows the team to have some more certainty on the budget, and will help Bob and Walt plan other transactions.

  11. #8
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    Re: Homer Bailey

    Bailey is one of my favorites and I'd personally rather keep him and deal Chapman, even if Bailey is only around for one more season and a QO to net a pick when he walks. OTOH, if the team thinks Chapman can be a plus starter (I'm not as convinced as many) and they want to deal Bailey, I have to wonder about the return. I get the comp to Garza and it makes some sense, but Garza had a history of success in the AL East when it was a power division and none of the prospects the Cubs got are on par with names like Profar or Myers. This was also a mid-season deal where options for the Rangers to plug holes in the rotation were limited and drove up the price. In the off-season, free agents are available and other teams are dealing as well. Garza was basically the only guy of his caliber last summer and the Rangers needed to pay a lot to get him. This winter there are others out there. Garza himself is an option. So is Burnett, Hudson, Ubaldo and a host of others that teams could sign without giving up talent. That will suppress the market. Other examples may also not quite comp. Shields had 2 years of control and others were involved in that deal. Dickey was coming off of a Cy Young award. If teams do want to deal, guys like Price or one of the Tigers guys might be available. I think the idea that Bailey could get another Myers or Profar is off base. He could get a couple of good prospects, probably ones that aren't ready in 2014, but dealing him (or Chapman) to restock and using his money towards other needs makes sense anyway IMO.

    I could get on board with Sardinas, Odor and maybe a reliever who can backfill for Chapman while he moves into the rotation, but I wonder if the deal for Garza will actually work against getting that for Bailey. The Rangers just gave up a lot of stuff for Garza, they may not be as inclined to deal more of the system for yet another rental. The Jays dealt off a lot of their system last offseason to get Reyes, Dickey and the like. The Cubs likely aren't interested in helping the Reds nor in a rental, same goes for St. Louis or Pittsburgh. The Nats probably don't need him.

    So, who has the prospects we'd want that might be likely to deal them? The Astros might actually make some sense to add Bailey while signing him, but they can wait a year and they'll have lots of money and can probably sign him later. I'd guess the Giants, Angels and Orioles might be most likely to be interested. The Orioles prospects are mostly pitchers. Bundy is out of the question IMO and the others wouldn't be bad. A deal involving Mike Wright and Eduardo Rodriguez might make sense given the idea that 2015 could see an exodus of arms, but I'd rather have near ready position players, preferably infielders. The Giants have a toolsy CF in Gary Brown, but like Hamilton, he struggled in AAA and doesn't seem to really improve the situation for the Reds. Joe Panik is a batting average type who plays SS and 2B. Might not be bad, but probably not enough as a main guy in a Bailey deal. The Angels have 3B Kaleb Cowart and 2B Taylor Lindsay who are interesting, but Cowart had an OPS of .580 in AA and Lindsay isn't ready. I like the Angels as a match, but would probably go for Howie Kendrick and Chris Ianetta as one of many moves that also involves dumping Phillips and using his money on Choo or a similar OF.

    The OP is right about Bailey's talent, but I just don't think the off-season, where teams have other options to address the rotation, will net the same kind of return that the Cubs got for Garza when they were basically the only option. Supply and demand impacts everything.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Re: Homer Bailey

    I hope we can retain Bailey long term. The plan should be to secure Cueto/Latos/Bailey as our 3 aces for the next 5-7 years. Bailey's stuff is just too good to give up on now after we put up with his inconsistency for so many years. At this point in his career he hits 94-97 mph on his fastball and has some wicked off speed stuff. I don't want to lose that.

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    Re: Homer Bailey

    I would be shocked if Bailey signs, I think he wants his shot at FA.

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    Re: Homer Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by dkamberi25 View Post
    I hope we can retain Bailey long term. The plan should be to secure Cueto/Latos/Bailey as our 3 aces for the next 5-7 years. Bailey's stuff is just too good to give up on now after we put up with his inconsistency for so many years. At this point in his career he hits 94-97 mph on his fastball and has some wicked off speed stuff. I don't want to lose that.
    Bailey/Cueto/Latos will cost upwards of $40M annually. When you combine that with the $35M or more per year for Votto and Bruce, you are spending $75M on 5 players. It will be really tough to field a competitive team with a payroll capped at around $110M.

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    Re: Homer Bailey

    I should have mentioned in my thread, that I would assume the Reds would give the team they are trading Bailey to a 48 hour window to work on a contract extension. That way it wouldn't feel like a 1 year deal and it would increase Bailey's trade value.

    That said, as much as the Reds need to reload the hitting in the minors a bit--- a deal like for Odor and Sardinas would never happen. Walt doesn't trade for prospects, he trades them. Walt would be looking for a MLB ready player in return.

    That said, there could still be the possibility he could make a move for some like Jose Altuve and Lance McCullers Jr from Houston. This would fill the void @ 2nd if BP is moved and give the Reds someone to bat 2nd behind Billy Hamilton. McCullers, although in A ball is talented pitcher to help restock the farm system.

    Houston would be interested, Bailey would fit their LT plans since he is 27. Remember Houston has Appel coming up, and likely Rodon who will go #1 to Houston barring an injury. Houston will have 2 stud pitchers that will move quick in the minors.

    Houston also is close to where Bailey grew up-- they have a ton of cash to spend-- ~$30-$40mm this year and have a very good farm system. They could be pretty good in a few years with some good FA moves and if their hitters develop.

    It's not far fetched to think Houston could trade for a SP this winter. Houston has a LT replacement @ 2B in DEshields Jr anyway.

    The problem is this leaves the Reds a little light in terms of SP next year if injuries hit. However if they lose Bailey after 2014, then the Reds are light in SP going into 2015. The Reds will be light in SP, it's just a matter of this year, or next year. But grabbing a 2B and moving Phillips at least helps the Reds LT in having the cash to resign Latos and Cueto.

    If Seattle signs Ellsbury, and it is possible since Seattle has a ton of cash to spend this offseason-- the Reds could make a play for Dustin Ackley. Ackley would be fantastic in that he currently plays CF, but also could play 2B in the event the Reds move BP. THe downside is, if the Reds retain BP and Billy Hamilton starts the season in the majors (which he should) Then the Reds have a pretty big problem in LF--- They have Ludwick, so do they do a l/R platoon with Ackley? Either way, Ackely wouldn't generate the production you would want out of a LF.

    The Reds wouldn't have to trade Homer for Ackley either. A Prospect and middle relief help for Seattle would get it done. (This assuming Seattle signs a CF-- then Ackley becomes surplus to requirements due to Franklin @ 2b. So Ackley is without a position and his bat isn't a DH quality bat.)

    If the Reds are really under the gun and have to move Bailey, they could ask for Paxton, Ackley and ?!?!?. Paxton would slot into the Reds rotation into the #5 spot. If Hultzen is healthy, Paxton is surplus to requirements in Seattle's rotation. Felix, Walker, Iwakuma, Bailey and Hultzen would be their starting 5.

    Paxton's #'s were solid in the minors. Don't forget when looking @ his AAA #'s, he played in the PCL which is a hitter's paradise league.


    If the Reds have to move Bailey, of course they would want a MLB ready arm in return to fill his spot in the rotation. In addition to that arm, the Reds would love to get a talented SS prospect i return. That's the best case. IF they could get a MLB ready arm, and a MLB ready 2B- that would be great too.

    Of course, the Reds would want to trade Bailey to the AL if possible. You wouldn't want to strengthen one of your playoff rivals if possible. The team that trades for Bailey, with the odd exception of Houston, is going to be someone competing for the playoffs. Yes, adding 2 good FA OF's, and Bailey, I think Seattle is a playoff contender-- their SP looks that good- and they have alot of young hitters who can improve.

    That said, because of so few potential trade partners, I'm thinking the Reds stand pat on Homer. I'll hate to lose him for a pick after 2014, since that pick will @ at the end of the 1st round, and probably a just a "B" prospect. I'm just not sure the Reds would be comfortable with Latos, Cueto, Cingrani, Leake and XYZ in their rotation. I think it's a strong enough top 4 if they all stay healthy.

    I don't think Chapman can hold up as a starter-- heck, they didn't want him to go more than 1 IP as a reliever for most of the season. Cingrani had a few injuries last year. The #5 starter matters in the regular season and not the postseason. The Reds can sign a FA on a 1/2 year deal for that 5th spot. Gamble on someone like Kazmir, but that's just adding another injury risk. (His #'s last year were surprisingly good. He'd be a gamble, but the Pirates took a gamble wiht Liriano and it paid off last year.)

    Who knows, I'm looking long term as much as short term. I don't want a Phillies situation where they were good for a few years, and now they are kind of in hell, since they are paying alot of money to the old and fragile Howard, Utley and Rollins. The Phills just didn't have enough in their farm system to reload. The Reds don't have enough in their farm system @ the moment to upgrade @ certain positions. Toolsy hitters who can't make contact-- and just a few good arms. Stephenson is very solid and I like Erwin-- but nothing @ 2b,ss and 3B, and a big dropoff in arms after Stephenson. IT's hard to develop pitching.

    Should be interesting offseason. Right now, I'd be happy just getting someone like Ackley for a reliever and a prospect, and signing Latos to an extension this winter. That's decent short term and long term business for the Reds.

  16. #13
    There's no Walt only Zuul villain612's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey

    I like Bailey a lot and would prefer to sign him long term, however, it looks like he wants to test the market and see what he can get.

    If he doesn't want to sign with the Reds, I'd listen to offers out there. But I wouldn't just move him for the sake of moving him. The deal would need to be right.

    I'm not opposed to keeping him for 2014.
    "The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."

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    Re: Homer Bailey

    Overall, we will need Bailey if we want to continue to go for it in 2014.

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    Re: Homer Bailey

    The market for pitchers is getting pretty insane. Scott Kazmier who used to be a stud left hander in Tampa fell off the map, and now he just got a 2 year $22 million contract from the A's!

    Arroyo is supposed to be meeting with the Yankees.

    I'm guessing that Bailey gets at a minimum $15-17 million a year.


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