What's the deal with Homer? Do you think he will sign a long term deal this offseason? (If so, what's your guess on $$ of the new deal.) If not, do the Reds move him this winter?, or just let him go as a Free Agent @ the end of next season?
I've been reading alot of posts by people who want to trade Bailey for just Jurikson Profar and many comments about how the Reds may have to throw in another player to get this done.
I think many people on here either a.) underrate Bailey, or b.) don't realize the value in return pitchers can bring on the market.
In the summer, the Rangers traded for 1/2 a season of Matt Garza. The Cubs got back, Olt, Edwards, Grimm and a player to be named later. You are looking @ a B+ player in Olt. Grimm is a B prospect and Edwards will be a B+/B prospect @ the start of next year. He has had an outstanding season. Not to mention a PTBNL, which will be the C+/B variety.
Garza's WAR was 1.5 last year with the Cubs and 1.2 the season before. Bailey's WAR was 2.5 and 3.2 last year.
The previous offseason, the Rays trade Shields and Wade Davis for Wil Myers (A- prospect), Odorizzi (B+) and 2 other prospects.
Shields was 3 years older than Bailey @ the time, and his WAR the previous 3 seasons was a combined 6.4 wins. Bailey's last 3 years is 6.1 wins.
The advantage for Bailey is he is younger, he is entering his prime and he has continued to show steady improvement the past 3 years.
If the Reds trade him to Texas, the other advantage for Texas is that they would probably be able to resign him as Homer wouldn't mind staying in his home state of Texas. (Unlike Garza where when they signed him, they knew it was for 1/2 a season only)
If the Reds feel like they can't resign Bailey or can't afford to resign him to a monster deal, then the Reds will be able to get quite a bit back in return for Bailey.
If the Reds and Rangers make a trade, I'd be ecstatic if the Reds ended up with Profar, Rougned Odor (2b) and Wilmer Font. (RP)
If the Rangers want to hold onto Profar, because they plan on installing him @ 2b and moving Kinsler to 1B, I would be quite happy to replace him with Luis Sardinas (SS) and a pitcher like Neil Ramirez.
If the Reds got Odor and Sardinas, it would be quite the coup. Odor was basically putting up the stats of Profar in AA @ the same age, without the fanfare. He fills in nicely as the LT replacement @ 2b. And Sardinas would be ready for the majors if all goes well in 3 years-- perfect timing to replace Cozart when he starts to become more expensive.
Anyway, some of these comments about trading Bailey for Bautista or just Profar or 1 other B+ prospect are kind of ridiculous. Good starting pitchers are hard to come by, and it takes alot to trade for them. (As we saw when we traded for Latos) If the Reds aren't able to resign Bailey to a long term (LT) deal this winter, they have the opportunity to restock a farm system that is really lacking in depth outside of the top 3/4 prospects.
Sure, the Reds may take a step back next year by trading Bailey (and not resigning Choo) but it would free up cash to resign other players like Latos and Cueto and help restock the farm system which will help in the long run.
It would be nice if the Reds had an unlimited payroll, but to think that in 3 years, the Reds can be paying big money to Votto, Bruce, BP, Choo, Cueto, Latos, Bailey and Chapman is unrealistic.