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Thread: Homer Bailey

  1. #31
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by Mike Honcho View Post
    That is a lot of money for two starters. It would be great to keep both players but I'm not sure if it is practical. What I do know is you can't lose both of them. They need to work they're butts off to extend Latos and if it can't be done then do whatever it takes to keep Bailey. If Bailey leaves or is traded then Latos will have the Reds over a barrel.
    Homer Bailey for 5 years at $80 Million is a better deal than Brandon Phillips for 4 years at $50 Million. Latos at 6 years, $100 Million is as well.

    They'll likely be paying Mike Leake $10 Million+ in 2015 for his last year of arb no matter how well he pitches in 2014. Think about that. Lock up Homer and deal Leake and most of his first year is already paid for.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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  3. #32
    Member Mike Honcho's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Homer Bailey for 5 years at $80 Million is a better deal than Brandon Phillips for 4 years at $50 Million. Latos at 6 years, $100 Million is as well.

    They'll likely be paying Mike Leake $10 Million+ in 2015 for his last year of arb no matter how well he pitches in 2014. Think about that. Lock up Homer and deal Leake and most of his first year is already paid for.
    6/100 sounds about right for Latos, maybe with an option
    They don't think it be like it is but it do.

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  4. #33
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    Re: Homer Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by Mike Honcho View Post
    Bailey is better than Matt Cain and look at how he got paid.
    In general, or just last year?

    When Matt Cain signed his extension in April 2012, he had come off his 5th straight season of over 200 innings, at which time his lowest season ERA+ was 117 (career 119). Homer's career highest is 112 in '12 and put up a 110 last year (career 96). Maybe going forward Homer can put up better numbers than Cain, but let's not pretend that anything he has done to this point is comparable to what Cain has accomplished.
    Before you criticize someone, you should "walk a mile in their shoes", as the saying goes. That way, when you criticize them, you are a mile away... and you have their shoes.

  5. #34
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    Re: Homer Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Homer Bailey for 5 years at $80 Million is a better deal than Brandon Phillips for 4 years at $50 Million. Latos at 6 years, $100 Million is as well.

    When a 31 year old Nolasco gets $12mm a year and an option for a 5th year in FA, I tend to think Bailey will get a little more than $16mm a year in FA if he has a year just as good as last year or better. With 1 year until FA, I'm not sure the Reds can lock him up @ that price.

    Anibal Sanchez got 5/80 last offseason correct? Bailey being a FA 2 years later, and the fact that TV revenues go up from $25mm to $52mm this season means more money for players and I wouldn't be surprised if Bailey get more than 5 years and/or $16mm per next off season in FA if he makes it.

  6. #35
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by Ladeda View Post
    When a 31 year old Nolasco gets $12mm a year and an option for a 5th year in FA, I tend to think Bailey will get a little more than $16mm a year in FA if he has a year just as good as last year or better. With 1 year until FA, I'm not sure the Reds can lock him up @ that price.

    Anibal Sanchez got 5/80 last offseason correct? Bailey being a FA 2 years later, and the fact that TV revenues go up from $25mm to $52mm this season means more money for players and I wouldn't be surprised if Bailey get more than 5 years and/or $16mm per next off season in FA if he makes it.
    Probably right. I'm one of Bailey's biggest supporters, but if something around Sanchez deal isn't enough, I'd let him walk, make the QO, take the pick, pencil in Stephenson as his replacement and focus on signing Latos. Latos is signed for $7.25 Million in 2014 and arb eligible in 2015. Offer a 5 year extension that bumps him to $15 Million in 2015, $18 Million in 2016 and $20 Million per each year in 17, 18 and 19. That would get him to $100 Million over the next 6 years and he'd have a chance for another big payday after his age 31 season. He moved to Cincy this year and is spending the off-season and getting involved in the community. Seems he'd be willing and he's still making relatively little enough that numbers like those guaranteed right now should give him something serious to think about. Latos, Cingrani and Stephenson should provide a solid core to keep the team competitive and the window open beyond the potential 2015 pitching exodus. There is enough prospect depth and always enough back-end pitching on the free agent market that the Reds should be able to fill out the back-end reasonably.
    Last edited by mth123; 12-22-2013 at 04:56 AM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  7. #36
    Member Mike Honcho's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey

    Nolasco, Edwin Jackson, Sanchez all have the same thing in common, no comp attached. If Bailey were to be traded he would be looked at like those guys but if he stays and has the comp attached then he would be more like Ubaldo Jimenez and Ervin Santana
    They don't think it be like it is but it do.

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  8. #37
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by Mike Honcho View Post
    Nolasco, Edwin Jackson, Sanchez all have the same thing in common, no comp attached. If Bailey were to be traded he would be looked at like those guys but if he stays and has the comp attached then he would be more like Ubaldo Jimenez and Ervin Santana
    Not following. If he's traded to another team, they could still make a qualifying offer and get compensation if he walks. If that's not what you're referring to, I'm completely lost on the point you're making.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  9. #38
    Member Mike Honcho's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Not following. If he's traded to another team, they could still make a qualifying offer and get compensation if he walks. If that's not what you're referring to, I'm completely lost on the point you're making.
    I can't remember what I was thinking because you're right, that makes no sense. I'm not even going to try and lie. I know lately I have talked about the only way I see Homer Bailey being traded is at midseason if the Reds are out of it. In that context the comment makes sense but on its own it is nonsense.
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    They don't think it be like it is but it do.

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  10. #39
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    Re: Homer Bailey

    I have a feeling Homer is going to want to test the FA market, I think it is vital for Walt to get a feel for this and if true look to move Homer for some more depth at some point.

  11. #40
    Put some Robitussin on it villain612's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey

    The Reds are built to win NOW. They have one of the best pitching rotations in all of a baseball and Bailey is a big part of that. Unless the offer is undeniably good, keep him for 2014. If he ends up going somewhere else next year then fine - we'll take the compensatory pick and hopefully a really good 2014 season from HB.
    "The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."

  12. #41
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    Re: Homer Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by Mike Honcho View Post
    Nolasco, Edwin Jackson, Sanchez all have the same thing in common, no comp attached. If Bailey were to be traded he would be looked at like those guys but if he stays and has the comp attached then he would be more like Ubaldo Jimenez and Ervin Santana
    Yeah, I can't wait until Tanaka signs, then Jimenez, Garza and Santana will sign soon after and those guys will be better comps to what Bailey will get next year.

    But since they still haven't signed, I had to use last year (A Sanchez) as a comparison for the time being.

  13. #42
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    Re: Homer Bailey

    I donít think we are going to lose Homer. I think a big part of why the money wasnít there to resign Choo is because Jocketty is planning on resigning Latos & Bailey. Jocketty isnít Bowden, he understands the importance of pitching.

  14. #43
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    Re: Homer Bailey

    I think there is no way we resign Latos AND Bailey. Only Latos. Homer is gone.

  15. #44
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    Re: Homer Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by JMac84 View Post
    I think there is no way we resign Latos AND Bailey. Only Latos. Homer is gone.
    That may be, but if so it will be because Homer doesn't want to stay. I think the front office will make every effort to keep him. Personally, I think when the dust settles we resign him & Latos.

  16. #45
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    Re: Homer Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by Wishbone C View Post
    That may be, but if so it will be because Homer doesn't want to stay. I think the front office will make every effort to keep him. Personally, I think when the dust settles we resign him & Latos.
    I dont think there is any doubt the Reds make an effort to keep him, but i really dont see it happening. I get the impression Bailey isnt going to give the Reds a discount, and with a solid year he will get a huge deal out of the Reds budget. Might be best for the Reds to let him walk or trade him now.

    Could be for the best too. You have young guys in Cingrani and Stephenson, it might be better to plug them in and put some money toward the lineup.


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