Official 2013 Rule V discussion Thread

[mth123]

Who else is exposed? Drew Hayes? Tim Crabbe? Juan Silva? Devin Lohman? Chris Manno? I think Crabbe is the one I'd least like to lose.

[camisadelgolf]

Who else is exposed? Drew Hayes? Tim Crabbe? Juan Silva? Devin Lohman? Chris Manno? I think Crabbe is the one I'd least like to lose.

Some names I noticed were left off, too, but no one I'm all that worried about.
Josh Fellhauer
Felix Perez
Josh Smith
Jamie Walczak
Travis Mattair
Brodie Greene
Dan Renken
David Vidal

[mth123]

Some names I noticed were left off, too, but no one I'm all that worried about.
Josh Fellhauer
Felix Perez
Josh Smith
Jamie Walczak
Travis Mattair
Brodie Greene
Dan Renken
David Vidal

Max Ramirez and Jason Bourgeois may be most at risk.

[LoganBuck]

Duran did convert about 20 strikeouts to walks in his repeat season at A+. His OBP wasn't totally useless, and he does have the previously mentioned light tower power.

[HokieRed]

Arias K'd 60 times in 222 AB at High A ball and had 5 W's. I suspect the FO does not think those numbers are likely to induce anybody to give him a 25 man roster spot for 2014.

[mdccclxix]

With Duran, couldn't it be in large part a protection of their large investment financially in him?

[redsof72]

With Duran, couldn't it be in large part a protection of their large investment financially in him?

Not a large part, the whole thing.

[Kc61]

With Duran, couldn't it be in large part a protection of their large investment financially in him?

Seems like the only intelligent move was to protect him. Why pay a big bonus to this player and, while he's still young, let some other team get him via the Rule V draft? For what, $50,000?

Duran didn't do badly at all last season, he's still young, this really shouldn't be a controversial move. Seems pretty obvious when one focuses on it.

[mdccclxix]

Duran in 125 PA vs LHP last season (high A):

19bb 33k .311/.416/.651/1.067

That's really cool to look at in a bubble.

[redsof72]

I think Arias is the much better prospect but I was surprised that they did not protect Duran last year because of the $2 million signing bonus, so I should not be surprised this year that they did. Hal Morris predicted to me in 2011 that Duran would never see a Double-A ballpark, but I don't think Hal took into account the amount of money the Reds had invested in him.

Some thoughts on Duran: Best pure power in the org and can hit a ball as far as just about anyone in baseball with his 6'7" frame and very long arms...one of the worst defensive outfielders in all of professional baseball and you could not afford to play him in the field in a meaningful game, even for an inning...very uncoordinated and struggles to catch any fly ball when he has to run and then reach...a well-liked guy by his teammates because of his friendly nature, but not a hard worker (I knew the move to first base last spring would not last long because he is not the type to get out on the practice field and take a daily supply of ground balls)...has been very much out of shape in terms of conditioning and it effects his base running...a "mistake hitter," meaning if the pitcher leaves one in a bad location, Duran will hit it a mile, but if you hit your spots, you will get him out without too much trouble...had a two-week suspension in 2013 handed down by the Reds for undisclosed reasons.

[757690]

I think Arias is the much better prospect but I was surprised that they did not protect Duran last year because of the $2 million signing bonus, so I should not be surprised this year that they did. Hal Morris predicted to me in 2011 that Duran would never see a Double-A ballpark, but I don't think Hal took into account the amount of money the Reds had invested in him.

Some thoughts on Duran: Best pure power in the org and can hit a ball as far as just about anyone in baseball with his 6'7" frame and very long arms...one of the worst defensive outfielders in all of professional baseball and you could not afford to play him in the field in a meaningful game, even for an inning...very uncoordinated and struggles to catch any fly ball when he has to run and then reach...a well-liked guy by his teammates because of his friendly nature, but not a hard worker (I knew the move to first base last spring would not last long because he is not the type to get out on the practice field and take a daily supply of ground balls)...has been very much out of shape in terms of conditioning and it effects his base running...a "mistake hitter," meaning if the pitcher leaves one in a bad location, Duran will hit it a mile, but if you hit your spots, you will get him out without too much trouble...had a two-week suspension in 2013 handed down by the Reds for undisclosed reasons.

Thanks for the detailed scouting report. That matches with what I've seen of him in limited action.

[Gallen5862]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/major...ames-to-watch/

Rule 5 Preview: Cubs’ Marcus Hatley, Yankees’ Danny Burawa Among Names To Watch

Some scouts’ passports will be getting a workout in the leadup to the Dec. 12 Rule 5 draft.

The Nov. 20 deadline to set 40-man rosters in advance of the draft gave scouts a chance to start setting their travel itineraries to try to check out Rule 5 eligibles playing in winter leagues.

While few impact players have been nabbed in the Rule 5 draft ever since eligibility rules gave teams an extra year of protection before players are eligible, the lure of adding talent inexpensively (the cost of a Rule 5 claim is only $50,000) will keep teams sorting to find a potential gem in a sea of middling prospects.

Over the years, there are several kinds of prospects who prove most valuable for the Rule 5 draft: power arms with above-average velocity, especially if they already have the makings of a second pitch; lefthanders with excellent pitchability, speedy middle infielders and center fielders who can help both with their glove and as pinch runners; polished first baseman/corner outfielders who provide enough power to have value as a big bat off the bench.

Of the five Rule 5 selections that stuck last year without being offered back to their original team, those categories are well represented. There were the power arm relievers (Josh Fields, Hector Rondon, Ryan Pressly) and a somewhat polished first baseman (Nate Freiman) as well as a lefthander with excellent control (T.J. McFarland).

Here’s a look at a number of players who could hear their names called during the 2013 Rule 5 draft.

Junior Arias, of, Reds: Like many potential Rule 5 picks, Arias only fits on a team that is building for the future. Arias has yet to have an at-bat above Class A and he spent much of last year in low Class A Dayton. His bat is in no way ready to actually help a big league club in 2014. But Arias has a very useful combination of speed and power for a team looking for long-term help. Arias hit 15 home runs last year and stole 60 bases. A former shortstop/third baseman who was plagued with throwing errors, Arias quickly took to a move to center field this year. He still is a little raw in center, but his plus speed outruns a lot of his mistakes and his arm is above-average.

If a team picked Arias, he would be able to provide some value as a pinch-runner, late-inning defensive replacement and even an occasional pinch-hit appearance because of his pop. It would slow his long-term development, but a team looking to add athleticism to its outfield may be intrigued by Arias’ tools.

[Gallen5862]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

The Yankees paid a good amount to sign Cuban lefthander Omar Luis last year and they'll be making him available in this year's Rule 5 draft, writes Ben Badler of Baseball America. The Yanks initially signed Luis for a $4MM bonus but when an unexpected issue popped up in his physical, they negotiated that figure down to $2.9MM. It may be a long shot that any team will draft Luis, however, given how far away he is from contributing.

Teams have tried to trade for Mariners left-handed reliever Brian Moran and he's a virtual lock to get picked up in the Rule 5 draft, tweets Peter Gammons of MLB Network. Moran pitched to a 3.45 ERA with an eye-popping 12.2 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 in 48 Triple-A outings last season.

[camisadelgolf]

The reason Luis is eligible for the Rule 5 draft is for the same reason Ismael Guillon was eligible after his contract was renegotiated following issues with his physical.

[Gallen5862]

It looks like the Reds have a spot open on the 40 man roster. This could allow the Reds to participate in the Rule V draft.