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Thread: Joe Poz on Joey Votto

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    Redsmetz redsmetz's Avatar
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    Joe Poz on Joey Votto

    Nice blog post on Joey Votto from the writer Joe Posnanski. Interesting to see him break down Votto's value.

    http://joeposnanski.com/joeblogs/votto-matta-you/
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    Pre-tty, pre-tty good!! MWM's Avatar
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    Re: Joe Poz on Joey Votto

    Quote Originally Posted by redsmetz View Post
    Nice blog post on Joey Votto from the writer Joe Posnanski. Interesting to see him break down Votto's value.

    http://joeposnanski.com/joeblogs/votto-matta-you/
    We should sticky that blog on this forum and make it required reading for any discussion on Votto.
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    Re: Joe Poz on Joey Votto

    So he walked 7 times with a runner at 3rd and less than 2 outs and hit 6 sac flies? So the perception wasn't at all reality? Who knew.

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    Redsmetz redsmetz's Avatar
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    Re: Joe Poz on Joey Votto

    Quote Originally Posted by SlimJim11 View Post
    So he walked 7 times with a runner at 3rd and less than 2 outs and hit 6 sac flies? So the perception wasn't at all reality? Who knew.
    Poz noted correctly that this year was off from Votto's previous record in these situations, but those numbers were, as he says, the classic small sample size. What he does well in this piece is to lay out the need to look with a wider lense - several years. One season can be an aberration, as this one likely was. I thought the bit about Duke Snider was very telling and put this in very good perspective.
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    Re: Joe Poz on Joey Votto

    Quote Originally Posted by redsmetz View Post
    Poz noted correctly that this year was off from Votto's previous record in these situations, but those numbers were, as he says, the classic small sample size. What he does well in this piece is to lay out the need to look with a wider lense - several years. One season can be an aberration, as this one likely was. I thought the bit about Duke Snider was very telling and put this in very good perspective.
    Yes a 29 ab sample size is silly to look at. 2 more hits takes you from a .245 hitter to a .310 hitter.

    And people let that ruffle their feathers all year. How silly.

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    Re: Joe Poz on Joey Votto

    Quote Originally Posted by MWM View Post
    We should sticky that blog on this forum and make it required reading for any discussion on Votto.
    Amen.
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    OlafTheBlack Dan's Avatar
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    Re: Joe Poz on Joey Votto

    I posted this in the comments:

    So many baseball experts in this thread. Just sayin' that perhaps Votto knows more about hitting than the rest of us combined.

    As a fan it's enjoyable to watch a well struck line drive that brings in runs. Fast movement is much more interesting than a trot to first. However, that's NOT actually what wins ballgames.

    It breaks down like this: Each half inning has a clock. Wait, what? Yeah, a clock. A clock with 3 ticks, or as we know them "outs." When your team is at bat and you do the things that prevent that clock from ticking off its 3 ticks, you're going to score runs. There are 4 bases, so that means if you get 4 people on base before 3 ticks have gone off the clock for that half inning, provided none have been thrown out on the base paths, you MUST score at least one run. MUST. Therefore, THE single most important thing a batter can do is get on base. It doesn't matter how he does it, just get on base. And Joey Votto was the absolute BEST in MLB last year at doing just that.

    The batter's job is to extend the inning, pure and simple. Sacrifices may have their place, but asking your best hitter to NOT get on base is a losing way to play baseball. Jocketty/Price/Long should not be convincing Votto to change his approach; they should be asking players like Frazier to stop swinging at garbage out of the strike zone that they cannot hit.

    Great hitters know what pitches they can handle and which they cannot. They train themselves to lay off the pitches outside the zone and foul off those in the zone that they can't handle. Then they get their pitch, because the pitcher will eventually make a mistake, and they take an aggressive swing at it. This is why the best hitters have higher strike-out numbers than you might think they should. They're aggressive toward pitches they can handle, but baseball, being the game of failure that it is, means even then that they aren't always going to make contact.
    Sabermetrics is this: A batter's goal is to extend the inning. Extend enough innings and you're going to score runs. Extend more innings than your opponent and you're going to score more runs than him.

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    Re: Joe Poz on Joey Votto

    Walks are rare enough to still annoy people who think the game of baseball is really hit ball, which as a kid that's what you want, to hit, to swing.

    There have been 8600 or so seasons with guys getting 500 ab's in the games history, 560 or so (don't have my notes in front of me) had 100 BB, about 6.2%, 40% of those guys had a slugging % over .490.

    So less than 3% of the players in the games history have accomplished that feat.

    That's impressive... so you'd think, but apparently it's a point of contention in Cincinnati lately.

    Code:
    OBA                           YEAR     OBA      BB       SLG      AB     
    1    Joey Votto               2013     .435      135     .491      581   
    2    Joe Morgan               1974     .427      120     .494      512   
    3    Joey Votto               2011     .416      110     .531      599   
    4    Joe Morgan               1973     .406      111     .493      576   
    5    Adam Dunn                2004     .388      108     .569      568   
    6    Adam Dunn                2005     .387      114     .540      543   
    7    Adam Dunn                2007     .386      101     .554      522   
    8    Johnny Bench             1972     .379      100     .541      538   
    9    Adam Dunn                2006     .365      112     .490      561

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    Re: Joe Poz on Joey Votto

    Let's see, Votto's a problem because he's not aggressive enough with a runner on 3rd. Meanwhile Brandon Phillips just had a freaky season in terms of hitting w/RISP and he's apparently got to go too.

    I think the real problem is they both make more money than Marty Brennaman.
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    Re: Joe Poz on Joey Votto

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Let's see, Votto's a problem because he's not aggressive enough with a runner on 3rd. Meanwhile Brandon Phillips just had a freaky season in terms of hitting w/RISP and he's apparently got to go too.

    I think the real problem is they both make more money than Marty Brennaman.
    Making a large amount of money in this town is the cardinal sin - unless you're a corporate baron. I'd hate to hear the criticism of Andy Dalton if he started getting really big money.
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    Re: Joe Poz on Joey Votto

    Poz continues to make the same mistake he has been making in this argument for awhile. No one, and I mean no one is asking Votto to swing at bad pitches. It's a stupid and lazy mischaracterization of the opposing argument.

    The issue is whether or not Votto, and all hitters with runners on base, should just swing at pitches in their hit zone that they know they can hit for power, or also swing at pitches that they are confident they can hit for just a single, in order to drive the run home. Expanding the zone doesn't mean swinging at bad pitches, it means swinging at pitches that you can't crush, but you hit for a soft line drive.

    I'm not saying that Votto doesn't use this approach, it did seem like he did expand his zone in years past. But expanding the zone doesn't mean swinging at bad pitches or pitches way outside the srike zone. It just means swinging at pitches that are hittable, if not drivable.

    I'm really getting sick of writers like Poz writing such crap.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    Re: Joe Poz on Joey Votto

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Poz continues to make the same mistake he has been making in this argument for awhile. No one, and I mean no one is asking Votto to swing at bad pitches. It's a stupid and lazy mischaracterization of the opposing argument.

    The issue is whether or not Votto, and all hitters with runners on base, should just swing at pitches in their hit zone that they know they can hit for power, or also swing at pitches that they are confident they can hit for just a single, in order to drive the run home. Expanding the zone doesn't mean swinging at bad pitches, it means swinging at pitches that you can't crush, but you hit for a soft line drive.

    I'm not saying that Votto doesn't use this approach, it did seem like he did expand his zone in years past. But expanding the zone doesn't mean swinging at bad pitches or pitches way outside the srike zone. It just means swinging at pitches that are hittable, if not drivable.

    I'm really getting sick of writers like Poz writing such crap.

    Is your argument you want Votto to swing at pitches he knows he can't drive, because he might be able to bloop it in for a single?

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    Re: Joe Poz on Joey Votto

    Quote Originally Posted by Dan View Post
    There are 4 bases, so that means if you get 4 people on base before 3 ticks have gone off the clock for that half inning, provided none have been thrown out on the base paths, you MUST score at least one run. MUST. Therefore, THE single most important thing a batter can do is get on base. It doesn't matter how he does it, just get on base. And Joey Votto was the absolute BEST in MLB last year at doing just that.

    The batter's job is to extend the inning, pure and simple. Sacrifices may have their place, but asking your best hitter to NOT get on base is a losing way to play baseball. Jocketty/Price/Long should not be convincing Votto to change his approach; they should be asking players like Frazier to stop swinging at garbage out of the strike zone that they cannot hit.

    .
    I've always believed that this theory is an oversimplification.

    How many teams could score enough runs to win a championship if they depended on four men or more reaching base per inning.

    The idea that every player has the job of getting on base is fine. But real world, how many teams can win getting one base at a time, at least four in an inning. Few or none.

    Every team inevitably has several batter who do NOT frequently get on base. No team in the real world waits every time for four baserunners.

    So you need some guys who compensate by hitting rather than walking. By getting doubles rather than singles. By getting homers rather than doubles.

    If I thought that Votto truthfully views his job simply to "get on base" I would want to trade him. But I don't think that's it at all.

    What Votto is really saying IMO is this -- they don't pitch to me that much. I seldom get the pitches I want. And I'd rather walk than swing at pitches that I won't hit well.

    Votto is correct. And I firmly believe that all this would change -- including Joey's "approach" -- if he was surrounded by better hitters. He would get more to hit. Pitchers would not WANT to walk him for fear of the damage the next guy will do.

    The bottom line is the team lacks enough good hitters. Get some more and Votto will be "fixed."
    Last edited by Kc61; 11-14-2013 at 11:33 AM.

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    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Joe Poz on Joey Votto

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    I'm not saying that Votto doesn't use this approach, it did seem like he did expand his zone in years past. But expanding the zone doesn't mean swinging at bad pitches or pitches way outside the srike zone. It just means swinging at pitches that are hittable, if not drivable.
    How do you know that Votto isn't already doing this? He's actually historically good at commanding the strike zone and knowing his own limits, or at least that's what the data says. It isn't just about hitting the ball, it is about hitting it hard and well. If Votto knows he can't hit the ball with authority, why should he try?
    "I’ll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. That’s just how I do things.” -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

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    Re: Joe Poz on Joey Votto

    Quote Originally Posted by SlimJim11 View Post
    Is your argument you want Votto to swing at pitches he knows he can't drive, because he might be able to bloop it in for a single?
    No.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.


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