Joe Poz on Joey Votto

[M2]

I don't think anyone would be complaining if Votto's increased selectivity at the plate was leading to him doing more damage when he did swing. The problem is it has had exactly the opposite effect (or maybe it's just coincidence).

If Votto is being selective and waiting for exactly the right pitch to drive, why isn't he driving more pitches?

Votto has the best career batting average of any Reds player that anyone on this board has ever seen. He's first all-time on the team OB list and second all-time on the team SLG list. He is, in short, the most dangerous player at the plate in franchise history.

If what you want is a guy who hits 40 HR every year like clockwork, then the Reds need to get that guy and add him to Votto. Though the last guy the team had with that kind of power caused no shortage of arguments.

[membengal]

Votto has the best career batting average of any Reds player that anyone on this board has ever seen. He's first all-time on the team OB list and second all-time on the team SLG list. He is, in short, the most dangerous player at the plate in franchise history.

If what you want is a guy who hits 40 HR every year like clockwork, then the Reds need to get that guy and add him to Votto. Though the last guy the team had with that kind of power caused no shortage of arguments.

Indeed. The rail that Adam Dunn was run out of town on is, ironically, being prepped for Votto by some. Weird, huh?

[redssince75]

Poz continues to make the same mistake he has been making in this argument for awhile. No one, and I mean no one is asking Votto to swing at bad pitches. It's a stupid and lazy mischaracterization of the opposing argument.

The issue is whether or not Votto, and all hitters with runners on base, should just swing at pitches in their hit zone that they know they can hit for power, or also swing at pitches that they are confident they can hit for just a single, in order to drive the run home. Expanding the zone doesn't mean swinging at bad pitches, it means swinging at pitches that you can't crush, but you hit for a soft line drive.

I'm not saying that Votto doesn't use this approach, it did seem like he did expand his zone in years past. But expanding the zone doesn't mean swinging at bad pitches or pitches way outside the srike zone. It just means swinging at pitches that are hittable, if not drivable.

I'm really getting sick of writers like Poz writing such crap.

This post makes very little sense to me. I don't think in the real world, there is a nice tidy category of "hittable pitches that aren't hittable for power", in between "hittable for power pitches" and "unhittable pitches." To me that breaks it down too fine and creates false distinctions. I don't think hitters look at it that way. I don't think pitchers look at it that way.

[lollipopcurve]

Hypothetical:

You have to watch 10 ABs from one of these two players, randomly selected from all of their already recorded major league ABs.

1. Vlad Guerrero
2. Joey Votto

Not intended to be an indictment of Votto. I love Votto and am glad they locked him up. But for entertainment value, I'm taking 10 random ABs from Vlad. (But Vlad vs. Manny Sanguillen, don't make me choose.)

[M2]

Indeed. The rail that Adam Dunn was run out of town on is, ironically, being prepped for Votto by some. Weird, huh?

They both make more money than Marty Brennaman. It's really the only standard that seems to matter.

[757690]

This post makes very little sense to me. I don't think in the real world, there is a nice tidy category of "hittable pitches that aren't hittable for power", in between "hittable for power pitches" and "unhittable pitches." To me that breaks it down too fine and creates false distinctions. I don't think hitters look at it that way. I don't think pitchers look at it that way.

There's a reason why Sean Casey, Tony Gwynn, Rod Carew, Wade Boggs all has high OBP and low SLG, for their size. They made a choice to value reaching base over slugging. They accomplished that by swinging at pitches sluggers wouldn't have, and turning them into singles at a high rate. They took advantage of meatballs to crush when they saw them, but they didn't wait for them. They took the first pitch they saw that they knew they could handle, and turned it into a single whenever possible.

Every hitter has a hot zone, pitches they know they can crush. And every hitter also has a hit zone, pitches they know they can turn into singles at a high rate. As with all of hitting, the good ones know how to recognize one from the other, and react accordingly.

[westofyou]

There's a reason why Sean Casey, Tony Gwynn, Rod Carew, Wade Boggs all has high OBP and low SLG, for their size. They made a choice to value reaching base over slugging. They accomplished that by swinging at pitches sluggers wouldn't have, and turning them into singles at a high rate. They took advantage of meatballs to crush when they saw them, but they didn't wait for them. They took the first pitch they saw that they knew they could handle, and turned it into a single whenever possible.

Every hitter has a hot zone, pitches they know they can crush. And every hitter also has a hit zone, pitches they know they can turn into singles at a high rate. As with all of hitting, the good ones know how to recognize one from the other, and react accordingly.

Sean Casey doesn't belong in the same conversation as those three from my vantage point.

I'll also point out that both Carew and Boggs (and most of Gwynns) best seasons came when they piled up their highest BB totals.

YEAR	TEAM	AB	R	BB	AVG	SLG	OBA	OPS
1988	Red Sox	584	128	125	0.366	0.49	0.476	0.965
1989	Red Sox	621	113	107	0.33	0.449	0.43	0.879
1986	Red Sox	580	107	105	0.357	0.486	0.453	0.939
1987	Red Sox	551	108	105	0.363	0.588	0.461	1.049
1985	Red Sox	653	107	96	0.368	0.478	0.45	0.928
1983	Red Sox	582	100	92	0.361	0.486	0.444	0.931
1984	Red Sox	625	109	89	0.325	0.416	0.407	0.823
1991	Red Sox	546	93	89	0.332	0.46	0.421	0.881
1990	Red Sox	619	89	87	0.302	0.418	0.386	0.804
1992	Red Sox	514	62	74	0.259	0.358	0.353	0.711
1993	Yankees	560	83	74	0.302	0.363	0.378	0.74
1995	Yankees	460	76	74	0.324	0.422	0.412	0.834
1996	Yankees	501	80	67	0.311	0.389	0.389	0.778
1994	Yankees	366	61	61	0.342	0.489	0.433	0.922
1997	Yankees	353	55	48	0.292	0.397	0.373	0.769
1998	Rays	435	51	46	0.28	0.4	0.348	0.748
1999	Rays	292	40	38	0.301	0.377	0.377	0.754
1982	Red Sox	338	51	35	0.349	0.441	0.406	0.847
								
YEAR	TEAM	AB	R	BB	AVG	SLG	OBA	OPS
1978	Twins	564	85	78	0.333	0.441	0.411	0.853
1974	Twins	599	86	74	0.364	0.446	0.433	0.879
1979	Angels	409	78	73	0.318	0.391	0.419	0.81
1977	Twins	616	128	69	0.388	0.57	0.449	1.019
1976	Twins	605	97	67	0.331	0.463	0.395	0.858
1982	Angels	523	88	67	0.319	0.403	0.396	0.799
1975	Twins	535	89	64	0.359	0.497	0.421	0.919
1985	Angels	443	69	64	0.28	0.345	0.371	0.717
1973	Twins	580	98	62	0.35	0.471	0.411	0.881
1980	Angels	540	74	59	0.331	0.437	0.396	0.833
1983	Angels	472	66	57	0.339	0.411	0.409	0.82
1971	Twins	577	88	45	0.307	0.38	0.356	0.736
1981	Angels	364	57	45	0.305	0.374	0.38	0.753
1972	Twins	535	61	43	0.318	0.379	0.369	0.749
1984	Angels	329	42	40	0.295	0.353	0.367	0.72
1967	Twins	514	66	37	0.292	0.409	0.341	0.75
1969	Twins	458	79	37	0.332	0.467	0.386	0.853
1968	Twins	461	46	26	0.273	0.347	0.312	0.659
1970	Twins	191	27	11	0.366	0.524	0.407	0.93
								
YEAR	TEAM	AB	R	BB	AVG	SLG	OBA	OPS
1987	Padres	589	119	82	0.37	0.511	0.447	0.958
1984	Padres	606	88	59	0.351	0.444	0.41	0.853
1989	Padres	604	82	56	0.336	0.424	0.389	0.813
1986	Padres	642	107	52	0.329	0.467	0.381	0.848
1988	Padres	521	64	51	0.313	0.415	0.373	0.787
1994	Padres	419	79	48	0.394	0.568	0.454	1.022
1992	Padres	520	77	46	0.317	0.415	0.371	0.786
1985	Padres	622	90	45	0.317	0.408	0.364	0.773
1990	Padres	573	79	44	0.309	0.415	0.357	0.772
1997	Padres	592	97	43	0.372	0.547	0.409	0.957
1996	Padres	451	67	39	0.353	0.441	0.4	0.842
1993	Padres	489	70	36	0.358	0.497	0.398	0.895
1995	Padres	535	82	35	0.368	0.484	0.404	0.888
1998	Padres	461	65	35	0.321	0.501	0.364	0.865
1991	Padres	530	69	34	0.317	0.432	0.355	0.787
1999	Padres	411	59	29	0.338	0.477	0.381	0.858
1983	Padres	304	34	23	0.309	0.372	0.355	0.726
1982	Padres	190	33	14	0.289	0.389	0.337	0.726
2001	Padres	102	5	10	0.324	0.461	0.384	0.845
2000	Padres	127	17	9	0.323	0.441	0.364	0.805

[lollipopcurve]

Every hitter has a hot zone, pitches they know they can crush. And every hitter also has a hit zone, pitches they know they can turn into singles at a high rate. As with all of hitting, the good ones know how to recognize one from the other, and react accordingly.

But then of course, good pitching beats good hitting.

[Larry Schuler]

There's a reason why Sean Casey, Tony Gwynn, Rod Carew, Wade Boggs all has high OBP and low SLG, for their size. They made a choice to value reaching base over slugging. They accomplished that by swinging at pitches sluggers wouldn't have, and turning them into singles at a high rate. They took advantage of meatballs to crush when they saw them, but they didn't wait for them. They took the first pitch they saw that they knew they could handle, and turned it into a single whenever possible.

Every hitter has a hot zone, pitches they know they can crush. And every hitter also has a hit zone, pitches they know they can turn into singles at a high rate. As with all of hitting, the good ones know how to recognize one from the other, and react accordingly.

If Votto swings at 10-20 more home run pitches a year, he'd be a perennial 40-55 home run hitter. That's an extra 10-80 RBIs a year. Instead he is swinging at mostly single, double, and out pitches, and then the occasional home run pitch. It makes no sense.

[757690]

Sean Casey doesn't belong in the same conversation as those three from my vantage point.

I'll also point out that both Carew and Boggs (and most of Gwynns) best seasons came when they piled up their highest BB totals.

Casey belongs because he's a big guy who chose to be a singles hitter. He had the same approach as those guys, he just wasn't as good at it.

And talking walks and being a singles hitter actually go hand in hand, so. I'm not sure what your point is.

[westofyou]

Casey belongs because he's a big guy who chose to be a singles hitter. He had the same approach as those guys, he just wasn't as good at it.

And talking walks and being a singles hitter actually go hand in hand, so. I'm not sure what your point is.

My point is that some years they "appear" more selective due to increased walk numbers and they also appear to be the years that they increased their production.

Add in the fact that they all (Not Casey) had 450-578 doubles and 60-115 triples and I'd say calling them "singles" hitters is somewhat incorrect.

[bubbachunk]

Not at all.

There are pitches that are very hittable, but aren't perfect pitches. Sometimes a hitter needs to swing at less than perfect pitches.

So go outside of his zone?

[757690]

My point is that some years they "appear" more selective due to increased walk numbers and they also appear to be the years that they increased their production.

Add in the fact that they all (Not Casey) had 450-578 doubles and 60-115 triples and I'd say calling them "singles" hitters is somewhat incorrect.

Yeah, its a bad term. I'd prefer high OBP guys. Like I said, they slug when given the opportunity. All hitter have to hit XBH's, but some will take a single first, if given the opportunity, and not wait for a pitch to slug.

[Always Red]

So go outside of his zone?

Never

A very smart man (whom I've never met, but have grown to respect and frequents this place, often) once opined that Joey needs to trust his swing as much as he trusts his eyes (and he has the best eyes in the game). In other words, driving more balls in the zone, the ones he intuitively knows he can handle.

Joey Votto is the best player the Reds have had since Barry Larkin. Let's surround him with more good hitters.

[wheels]

If Votto swings at 10-20 more home run pitches a year, he'd be a perennial 40-55 home run hitter. That's an extra 10-80 RBIs a year. Instead he is swinging at mostly single, double, and out pitches, and then the occasional home run pitch. It makes no sense.

I absolutely love you.

Were you another poster previously? If that's the case, this alt identity is phenomenal.