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Thread: The Coach That Never Punts

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  1. #1
    Member Spitball's Avatar
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    The Coach That Never Punts

    Coach Kelley claims that math backs up his innovative philosophy.

    http://thechive.com/2013/11/14/the-c...r-punts-video/
    "I am your child from the future. I'm sorry I didn't tell you this earlier." - Dylan Easton

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    OlafTheBlack Dan's Avatar
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    Re: The Coach That Never Punts

    I've always said that if a team can convert a 2-point conversion at least half the time, they should go for it every time.
    Sabermetrics is this: A batter's goal is to extend the inning. Extend enough innings and you're going to score runs. Extend more innings than your opponent and you're going to score more runs than him.

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    Re: The Coach That Never Punts

    Kenton HS in Ohio has played this way for several years. They also had the Mauk brothers (coach's sons) throwing the ball for them. I've seen them in person a couple times. The first time, their first series, 4th and 15 from their own 15. Went for it. Converted. I became a big fan.

    Takes a lot of guys to sell out to a system like that 100%. That said, they only run about 10 plays (or variations) and it's not very complicated. But it is gutsy.
    When all is said and done more is said than done.

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    Re: The Coach That Never Punts

    Huh, last Sunday I just brought this up, wondering if anyone had considered it.
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    Re: The Coach That Never Punts

    In HS that puts a lot of presure on other team to stop it

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    Re: The Coach That Never Punts

    It would be interesting to see the math for a college/pro team to do this. I am generally in favor of teams going for it on 4th down. I hate to see coaches punt the ball on 4th and short, especially when it is on the opponents' side of the field. The odds are significantly in their favor to convert. However, much of the reasoning behind the coach going for it on every 4th down results from the ineffectiveness of high school kickers and punters. What does the math look like when punters are consistently kicking it 45 yards instead of 25? And when kickers are kicking it into the end zone?

    I'm sure that coaches should go for it more often in college/pros. But the wisdom of going for it on 4th and 15 is much different in high school versus higher levels

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    Charlie Brown All-Star IslandRed's Avatar
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    Re: The Coach That Never Punts

    The math is definitely different and his data seems to be based on the notion that high-school offenses are basically unstoppable (or, at least, his is) and therefore possession is everything.

    Kelley cites the fact that, if he gives up the ball at his own five by going for it on fourth-and-seven and failing, it's 92% likely the other team will score a TD; punting it out to their own 40 (assuming a net 35) still gives the other team a 77% chance of a TD. Playing around with an NFL stats site, giving it up on your own five yields 5.37 expected points for the opponent with a 60% chance of a TD. Kicking it out to the 40 reduces it to a 32% TD chance and 2.66 expected points. Meanwhile, possessing the ball with a first and ten at your own 12 (which would be the case if you went for it and barely made it), there's only a 14% chance of eventually scoring a TD and the expected points for that drive is actually slightly negative, meaning that the chances of driving the field to score are more than offset by the chance that something very bad is about to happen deep in your own end.

    College, I would presume, would be somewhere in between.
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    Re: The Coach That Never Punts

    I'd look at the metrics totally differently. I'd look at it in terms of yards. Everytime you miss a 4th down, it costs you 35-40 yards. Thus if you miss on say three 4th downs, you've cost yourself over 100 yards. That's hard to make up.

    I'd love to play a team that never punts.

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    Resident optimist OldRightHander's Avatar
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    Re: The Coach That Never Punts

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    I'd love to play a team that never punts.
    But I'd hate to play one that never has to.
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    Re: The Coach That Never Punts

    Pulaski Academy actually beat a college team, Memphis University, on September 6, of this year.

    http://www.maxpreps.com/games/footba...qJ4TpiICSg.htm
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    Re: The Coach That Never Punts

    Quote Originally Posted by Spitball View Post
    Pulaski Academy actually beat a college team, Memphis University, on September 6, of this year.

    http://www.maxpreps.com/games/footba...qJ4TpiICSg.htm
    Surely you're not serious that high school teams are playing (and winning) against college teams? Memphis University is a college prep school consisting of 7-12 graders

    http://www.musowls.org/netcommunity/

    Not to be confused with the University of Memphis Tigers

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    Member Spitball's Avatar
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    Re: The Coach That Never Punts

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    Surely you're not serious that high school teams are playing (and winning) against college teams? Memphis University is a college prep school consisting of 7-12 graders

    http://www.musowls.org/netcommunity/

    Not to be confused with the University of Memphis Tigers
    I admit I was fooled by the name, but not all college football teams are big time programs. In the town I live, we have a college that is playing football for the first time in 52 years. The squad is made up of almost entirely freshmen. They have played better than expected, but they have played some weak looking opponents.

    The Hendrix University roster: http://www.hendrixwarriors.com/roste...?path=football
    Last edited by Spitball; 11-20-2013 at 04:39 PM.
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    Re: The Coach That Never Punts

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    I'd look at the metrics totally differently. I'd look at it in terms of yards. Everytime you miss a 4th down, it costs you 35-40 yards. Thus if you miss on say three 4th downs, you've cost yourself over 100 yards. That's hard to make up.

    I'd love to play a team that never punts.
    At the other extreme was my local high school team, who punted from inside the other team's 40 when they were behind 35-0.
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    Re: The Coach That Never Punts

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    I'd look at the metrics totally differently. I'd look at it in terms of yards. Everytime you miss a 4th down, it costs you 35-40 yards. Thus if you miss on say three 4th downs, you've cost yourself over 100 yards. That's hard to make up.

    I'd love to play a team that never punts.
    You make it up pretty easily by converting a number of those 4th downs. If you convert on 4th down more often than you punt, you are likely to end up with more yards than had you followed a traditional strategy. And based on the fact that this team has recently won 3 straight championships, I'd guess that teams aren't that excited to play them...

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    Re: The Coach That Never Punts

    Quote Originally Posted by Hillsdale87 View Post
    You make it up pretty easily by converting a number of those 4th downs. If you convert on 4th down more often than you punt, you are likely to end up with more yards than had you followed a traditional strategy. And based on the fact that this team has recently won 3 straight championships, I'd guess that teams aren't that excited to play them...
    Right. Of course, there's a selection bias at work -- if the team is so good that it can expect to make fourth downs regardless of yards to go or field position, it's probably going to win regardless of strategy. We'd have to have a control group of let-it-all-hang-out-but-we're-mediocre teams to know for sure.
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