Best and Final to Choo?

[Benihana]

What would be your best and final offer to re-sign Shin Soo Choo?

I'd go 4 years $65M. I'd also offer 3 years $54M as an alternative.

If he wanted more years or dollars, I'd let him get it elsewhere.

[PuffyPig]

I expect the least amount of money he will get is 6 years, $100M.

[Benihana]

I expect the least amount of money he will get is 6 years, $100M.

Well then I certainly hope that's not with the Reds. Unless Castellini has the appetite to increase the payroll by 50% over the next 5 years (which is possible).

[fearofpopvol1]

What would be your best and final offer to re-sign Shin Soo Choo?

I'd go 4 years $65M. I'd also offer 3 years $54M as an alternative.

If he wanted more years or dollars, I'd let him get it elsewhere.

This just isn't going to get it done. I think you'd be lucky to get him to agree to 4 years, $80M. I would actually consider that, depending on what they plan to do about Bailey/Latos.

[Benihana]

This just isn't going to get it done. I think you'd be lucky to get him to agree to 4 years, $80M. I would actually consider that, depending on what they plan to do about Bailey/Latos.

I agree that a lot of this depends on what they plan to do about Bailey/Latos, and more broadly what the payroll flexibility is (and of course if they move Phillips).

My assumption is status quo going forward, meaning Bailey and Phillips are still here, at least for 2014. If one or more is traded, that does open up more room to add to the Choo offer. If they can dump Ludwick and/or trade Phillips for a much cheaper upgrade to 2B, SS, or CF, then I would consider upping my offer to 4/75. After that though, I think it's absurd- I'd let him walk and kick the tires on Granderson or Beltran.

(For the record, ol' Leatherpants predicted he'd settle for 5/85. Not that Leatherpants is ever correct, but maybe, just maybe, he'll settle for a lot less than the reported $100M+)

[Old school 1983]

My best offer. Say thanks for the great year we appreciate it....then collect the draft pick and make the moves necessary to help the team the next 1.5 to 2 years while our prospects grow in the minors and work their way up. Not a 5 to 6 year 100million commitment to a guy who will give us a couple really productive years then begin to decline while costing huge money and blocking prospects. Choo is a great player, but if he is realistically going to get what boras thinks he will, the best thing we can offer him is a thank you for an awesome 2013 and move on.

[swaisuc]

6/110M

I just don't think you can find his kind of impact bat by using that money in any other way. If you don't sign him, you're going to spend at least half that to try to replace him and likely see a significant downgrade.

Since this isn't about what I think they will do and is about what I would do, I would commit my money to my top few hitters. That means Votto, Bruce, and Choo. Then I would direct the rest of any money I have left to keeping as much good SP around as possible. Young and cheap to fill out the lineup wherever possible, including maybe trading Phillips and Hanigan.

My biggest fear is they let Choo walk because they don't want to pay Choo 17M per yr then turn around and give 10 here and 7 there to guys way below his level (in other words repeat the Ludwick/Broxton mistakes).

[REDREAD]

6/110M

I just don't think you can find his kind of impact bat by using that money in any other way. If you don't sign him, you're going to spend at least half that to try to replace him and likely see a significant downgrade.

Since this isn't about what I think they will do and is about what I would do, I would commit my money to my top few hitters. That means Votto, Bruce, and Choo. Then I would direct the rest of any money I have left to keeping as much good SP around as possible. Young and cheap to fill out the lineup wherever possible, including maybe trading Phillips and Hanigan.

My biggest fear is they let Choo walk because they don't want to pay Choo 17M per yr then turn around and give 10 here and 7 there to guys way below his level (in other words repeat the Ludwick/Broxton mistakes).

That's a great point. If the going rate for a Marlon Byrd is 8 million/year, that's something to think about. In a vacuum, of course 1 Choo is better than 2 Byrds.
There's a very limited number of impact bats like Choo, Votto, etc.

Maybe the Reds roll the dice and give Choo 6 years, with the knowledge that we may regret it in 2020, but it might not matter because maybe we aren't contending in 2020 anyhow? Or maybe in the future, we have to send some money with Choo to trade him to an AL team..

If the Reds are getting an extra 25 million from TV money next year, there's certainly worse things to do than blow most of it on Choo.
In 2015, we get some payroll relief when Ludwick's contract is up.

Pence got 5 years, 90 million. I'd do 6 years, 100 million, even though I am sure this will kill all flexibility to add payroll for awhile. I want to go for it while we still have the great pitching we have..

[HokieRed]

I've said all along I think he'll get at least 105 for 6, and I don't think we should sign him. I don't see why a 31 year old coming off the season he's just had would settle for less than 6 years. His negotiating leverage is at its greatest now.

[Old school 1983]

I've said all along I think he'll get at least 105 for 6, and I don't think we should sign him. I don't see why a 31 year old coming off the season he's just had would settle for less than 6 years. His negotiating leverage is at its greatest now.

I agree. His leverage is huge right now. The only way I could see him staying is if castellini increases the payroll or if choo enjoyed being in Cincinnati so much he'd be willing to do some seriously creative contract structuring.

[Alpha Zero]

Anything more than 5 years and $80 million seems a little crazy to me.

[RadfordVA]

Six years for 110 is probably the max.
I feel like it may come down to signing Choo or extending Latos or Bailey. So I would certainly rather spend that money on Choo. Very much in favor of locking up position players over pitchers. Especially one whose main skill of getting on base figures to age fairly well.

The time to extend pitchers is very early on and buy up 2 or 3 years of free agents. We are past that point with all the pitchers currently nearing free agency. I would look to lock up Cingrani and Stephenson if he debuts strongly sometime in the next two years. So with all that I would go pretty far to sign Choo. Past 20 million a year gets a little too crazy for even me.

[PepperJack]

I think matching Pence would be his likely floor.(5 years 90 million)

The Reds might be able to do that, it just might take more salary magic from Walt. Deferrals, bonuses, options, to keep it within the budget.

[AmarilloRed]

4-68, with the last year being a mutual option.

[RedsBrick]

Anything more than 5 years and $80 million seems a little crazy to me.

I agree.

I dig the guy, he had a very nice season and I think he'll continue that production for the next couple of years. But, I'm not sold on the back end of anything greater than 4 years.