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View Poll Results: What Are Your Expectations for Brandon Phillips - 2014

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  • Decline Continues .650 OPS

    2 3.51%
  • 2013 is the New Normal .700 OPS

    29 50.88%
  • Without the HBP, 2012 is his level .750 OPS

    19 33.33%
  • Back to Top form like 2011 .800 OPS

    3 5.26%
  • Something else that doesn't fit these choices

    4 7.02%
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Thread: Expectations for Brandon Phillips - 2014

  1. #1
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Expectations for Brandon Phillips - 2014

    The thread about Billy Hamilton revealed a wide range of expectations concerning his 2014 performance. Like Billy, the expectations for Brandon Phillips for 2014 are certainly an influence on how the Reds should approach the off-season retooling of the roster. What do you expect from Phillips in 2014?

    1. The Decline Continues .650 OPS
    2. 2013 is the New Normal .700 OPS
    3. The HBP was the problem, back to 2012 level .750 OPS
    4. Back to Top form like 2011 .800 OPS
    5. Other
    Last edited by mth123; 11-15-2013 at 06:10 AM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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  3. #2
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    Re: Expectations for Brandon Phillips - 2014

    I think he will fall somewhere between 2 & 3. .725

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    Old school 1983 (11-15-2013)

  5. #3
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Expectations for Brandon Phillips - 2014

    I personally think the pattern of decline the last three seasons seems pretty clear. BP topped out as he turned 30 and has been dropping ever since. In the 2014 season he turns 33. I'm not expecting an increase in his production. I think he'll probably manage a repeat of 2013 this year before the decline picks-up steam in 2015. In spite of my opinion that Phillips was really a great Reds player whose addition signaled the start of the turnaround for the floundering Reds of the Eric Milton years, I'm firmly in the trade BP camp. His contract/performance won't really be a problem in 2014, but I think he'll be a clear negative in 2015, 2016 and 2017 (when he's owed $39 Million over that time). He'll gain 10 and 5 rights before the end of 2014. Trading BP this off-season is probably the last chance to avoid swallowing the $39 Million poison pill.

    Dealing BP seems key to extending one of the core starting pitchers (Latos, Bailey or Cueto) and acquiring help at weak positions where the farm doesn't seem to have an answer for the next couple of years (which will soon include 2B if Phillips remains the man for 2015 and beyond). Defensively, he's still amazing, but he seems to have lost a little range already. Some of his amazing plays may have been fairly routine a couple seasons ago. As he slows further, he could quickly convert from a strength to a weakness. His defense has always justified everything, but father time gets everybody.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  6. #4
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    Re: Expectations for Brandon Phillips - 2014

    I will give him .740 because I think he has a lot to prove and will work at having a bounce back year. With that said, I think he will be on another team and most other ballparks are going to hurt him some from that level.

  7. #5
    Red's fan mbgrayson's Avatar
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    Re: Expectations for Brandon Phillips - 2014

    Bill James 2014 Handbook projects .271/.323/.418 for an OPS of .741, with 19 HRs and 87 RBIs. Sounds right to me.
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  8. #6
    Member Old school 1983's Avatar
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    Re: Expectations for Brandon Phillips - 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by MoneyInTheBank View Post
    I think he will fall somewhere between 2 & 3. .725
    I agree with you on this one.

  9. #7
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    Re: Expectations for Brandon Phillips - 2014

    Phillips had a hand/wrist injury for probably half the season. I would imagine a hand and or wrist would be important when swinging a bat, but that's just me...

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    _Sir_Charles_ (11-15-2013)

  11. #8
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: Expectations for Brandon Phillips - 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by bengalsown View Post
    Phillips had a hand/wrist injury for probably half the season. I would imagine a hand and or wrist would be important when swinging a bat, but that's just me...
    I agree. He got plunked on back to back days with the 2nd one being on June 1st against the Pirates. At that time he was at .296/.347/.481/.828. By the end of the season he'd fallen to .261/.310/.396/.706. The fall off was clearly from that point on. I'll take a healthy Phillips at 2nd for the remainder of his contract thankyouverymuch.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

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    bengalsown (11-15-2013), smixsell (11-16-2013)

  13. #9
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    Re: Expectations for Brandon Phillips - 2014

    I voted .700 on this poll, and while I do believe he is in his decline phase, I think he can hover in the .700-.725 range for another season or two.

  14. #10
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    Re: Expectations for Brandon Phillips - 2014

    Voted .750, and I think the FO will find it too complex to both deal him productively and replace his productivity--i.e. my guess is he opens the season in a Reds uniform. And this is not a bad thing. If we have two above average starters and meh at 6 other positions, Phillips still seems to me the most likely of the six to move from meh to above average again.

  15. #11
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Expectations for Brandon Phillips - 2014

    I expect he'll peeve someone off with his use of social media

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    pahster (11-16-2013)

  17. #12
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    Re: Expectations for Brandon Phillips - 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by HokieRed View Post
    Voted .750, and I think the FO will find it too complex to both deal him productively and replace his productivity--i.e. my guess is he opens the season in a Reds uniform. And this is not a bad thing. If we have two above average starters and meh at 6 other positions, Phillips still seems to me the most likely of the six to move from meh to above average again.

    I'm not trying to single you out, there are other posters who see things the way you do, and I'm not saying you are wrong, but I just can't see how the team brings him back after the way this offseason has started. To me, there is just too much smoke, too much water under the bridge for him to still be a Red when next season starts.

    The guy complained after getting an extension, what's he going to do after an offseason of trade rumors?
    Last edited by PepperJack; 11-15-2013 at 12:00 PM.

  18. #13
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    Re: Expectations for Brandon Phillips - 2014

    785 tweets.

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    reds44 (11-15-2013), westofyou (11-15-2013)

  20. #14
    Pagan/Asatru Ravenlord's Avatar
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    Re: Expectations for Brandon Phillips - 2014

    690-720 OPS. I expect him to be injury plagued all year and decline more as a result. as long as he's not hitting high in the order and his defense doesn't fade it'll be frustrating but acceptable to me.
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  21. #15
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    Re: Expectations for Brandon Phillips - 2014

    .680-.720. Something in that range.


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