Turn Off Ads?

View Poll Results: What Are Your Expectations for Brandon Phillips - 2014

Voters
57. You may not vote on this poll
  • Decline Continues .650 OPS

    2 3.51%
  • 2013 is the New Normal .700 OPS

    29 50.88%
  • Without the HBP, 2012 is his level .750 OPS

    19 33.33%
  • Back to Top form like 2011 .800 OPS

    3 5.26%
  • Something else that doesn't fit these choices

    4 7.02%
Page 2 of 2 FirstFirst 12
Results 16 to 26 of 26

Thread: Expectations for Brandon Phillips - 2014

  1. #16
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Location
    Flipadelphia
    Posts
    5,458

    Re: Expectations for Brandon Phillips - 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    785 tweets.
    That seems low to me. I think you are underestimating him here.

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #17
    Member Superdude's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Posts
    2,805

    Re: Expectations for Brandon Phillips - 2014

    .750+

    I think the age decline is being overblown. He was playing better than ever up until the injuries. At some point he'll be old, but I would be surprised if BP didn't bounce back to his career norms at least for the next year or so.

  4. Likes:

    bengalsown (11-15-2013), Crumbley (11-16-2013)

  5. #18
    Member Mitri's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Location
    New York
    Posts
    543

    Re: Expectations for Brandon Phillips - 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by Superdude View Post
    .750+

    I think the age decline is being overblown. He was playing better than ever up until the injuries. At some point he'll be old, but I would be surprised if BP didn't bounce back to his career norms at least for the next year or so.
    This is how I feel. He looked pretty good over the first half. I could see him hovering around career norms for at least another season, which is why I think Walt will keep him around to rebuild value. If the team tanks Phillips will be a nice deadline piece, and if his bat comes back to the norm he could be flipped next offseason.

    What I'd love to see is for the Reds to keep Phillips and build a better bench so that he can rest more. Ideally you keep Phillips, upgrade at SS and have Cozart as the super-sub.

  6. #19
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Location
    Flipadelphia
    Posts
    5,458

    Re: Expectations for Brandon Phillips - 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by Mitri View Post
    This is how I feel. He looked pretty good over the first half. I could see him hovering around career norms for at least another season, which is why I think Walt will keep him around to rebuild value. If the team tanks Phillips will be a nice deadline piece, and if his bat comes back to the norm he could be flipped next offseason.

    He will have 10/5 rights after this season. Any interest the Reds have in trading him, pretty much has to be done this offseason.

    He can dictate where or even if he gets traded after this year, which would, for all intents and purposes, kill the Reds leverage.

    Hanging on to him this offseason would likely make him a Red until the end of his contract.

  7. Likes:

    westofyou (11-15-2013)

  8. #20
    Member kpresidente's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Posts
    2,237

    Re: Expectations for Brandon Phillips - 2014

    The 'decline' is illusory because 2011 was a career year and 2013 was injury driven. That's two unreliable data points out of three...not a trend. I wouldn't be surprised to see some decline, but that's based on his age and similar players, not his past 3 years which offers little evidence one way or another. I say .750.

  9. #21
    Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Posts
    4,586

    Re: Expectations for Brandon Phillips - 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by PepperJack View Post
    I'm not trying to single you out, there are other posters who see things the way you do, and I'm not saying you are wrong, but I just can't see how the team brings him back after the way this offseason has started. To me, there is just too much smoke, too much water under the bridge for him to still be a Red when next season starts.

    The guy complained after getting an extension, what's he going to do after an offseason of trade rumors?
    Come back and have another productive year. Is he overpaid? Possibly. Is he still the third best position player on the team, absent Choo, whom I assume we will not be able to sign? IMO, that's an easy yes.

  10. Likes:

    bengalsown (11-16-2013), Crumbley (11-16-2013)

  11. #22
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Location
    Flipadelphia
    Posts
    5,458

    Re: Expectations for Brandon Phillips - 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by HokieRed View Post
    Come back and have another productive year. Is he overpaid? Possibly. Is he still the third best position player on the team, absent Choo, whom I assume we will not be able to sign? IMO, that's an easy yes.

    I just can't see how things will go well if he is not traded after all the rumors. I'm not going to complain if he is still here though, and performs on the field.

    If we are just going offensively, I could see a case where he is the fourth or even fifth best on the team. I would have Votto/Bruce for sure(as I'm guessing you would too), but Frazier was close numbers wise this season, and if he rebounds closer to 2012, then he might be a better offensive weapon than Phillips. If Ludwick has one more offensive swan song in him, then he too might be more valuable than Phillips. I'm also still a believer in Mesoraco, and who knows what he can do, if he breaks out.


    That said, I could very easily see Phillips as the Reds third best offensive player. I just hope all the negativity would be cleared away, with everyone hoping for a fresh start.

  12. #23
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Location
    Flipadelphia
    Posts
    5,458

    Re: Expectations for Brandon Phillips - 2014

    I don't know if this article explains his career winding down, or is just circumstantial.


    http://www.baseballanalytics.org/bas...-the-heat.html


    Brandon Phillips is reportedly on the trading block, with the Reds second baseman being mentioned as a possible replacement for the Yankees should free agent Robinson Cano cash in elsewhere. Phillips is coming off a 2013 campaign in which he drove in a career-high 103 runs, ranking second to Cano among all players at the keystone spot and trailing only Joe Morgan (111 RBI in 1976) on the single-season list for a Reds second baseman.

    Phillips, owed $50 million over the next four years, remains a slick fielder. But any club thinking about trading for him has to consider whether he can reverse a three-year decline at the plate that has seen his adjusted OPS dip from excellent (118 OPS+ in 2011) to average (99 OPS+) to subpar. To do that, the 32-year-old will have to start turning on fastballs once again.

    Phillips slugged .528 versus fastballs in 2011, topping the major league average by nearly 100 points. That figure dipped a bit in 2012 (.482) and then plummeted to .393 in 2013. You might think his power outage against the heat is the product of his hitting more ground balls, but Phillips actually hit more fly balls and line drives in 2013 than in the previous few seasons. It's just that the fastballs he lofted didn't travel as far: Phillips' fly balls and liners carried an average of 257 feet this past year, compared to 271 feet in 2011.

  13. #24
    Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Posts
    4,586

    Re: Expectations for Brandon Phillips - 2014

    Interesting numbers, PepperJack. Hard to know how to read them. The easy way might be to attribute the seeming decline to age, but it might also mean his injury was more significant than we may have been thinking.

  14. #25
    Member Old school 1983's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2013
    Posts
    1,844

    Re: Expectations for Brandon Phillips - 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by Superdude View Post
    .750+

    I think the age decline is being overblown. He was playing better than ever up until the injuries. At some point he'll be old, but I would be surprised if BP didn't bounce back to his career norms at least for the next year or so.
    I think the decline will happen, but the level if it is overblown and a lot of his 2013 decline was due more to bring hit on the hand than decline. I see Phillips coming out strong especially if he is traded because he may feel like he had something to prove.

  15. #26
    Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Posts
    767

    Re: Expectations for Brandon Phillips - 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by PepperJack View Post
    I'm not trying to single you out, there are other posters who see things the way you do, and I'm not saying you are wrong, but I just can't see how the team brings him back after the way this offseason has started. To me, there is just too much smoke, too much water under the bridge for him to still be a Red when next season starts.

    The guy complained after getting an extension, what's he going to do after an offseason of trade rumors?
    I'm with you. I wonder what BP's take is on all this "talk" about him this offseaon. Does he recognize any of the behavior/character flaws bestowed upon him? How would he explain his decline in production in most categories of offense? I guess since he's not talking to the media, we'll never know. All this negativity directed at him could cause him to become even more determined to succeed next seaon. My guess is, if he's back, he will become a major distraction.


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25