Unofficial Hot Stove News and Rumor Discussion Thread

[Spitball]

Yes, Garrett Jones would make a good platoon partner in left field in my opinion. He did have an off year last year but did hit 15 homers.

[RadfordVA]

You're right. Point is, just don't expect anything major Walt until his Christmas dinner has been digested and he wakes up from his nap.

Latos(dec 17), Choo(dec 12) and Marshall(dec 23) were all traded for before Christmas. The Jocketty sleeping on the job thing gets old. He probably just prefers to get to the GM meetings and explore all options before making a hasty move.

The guy has probably made the best trades in MLB each of the last two offseasons. I would hate to see if he had traded for Cahill and Ben Revere instead.

[corkedbat]

Latos(dec 17), Choo(dec 12) and Marshall(dec 23) were all traded for before Christmas. The Jocketty sleeping on the job thing gets old. He probably just prefers to get to the GM meetings and explore all options before making a hasty move.

The guy has probably made the best trades in MLB each of the last two offseasons. I would hate to see if he had traded for Cahill and Ben Revere instead.

Lighten up Alice. I was just joking about the Nap and "winking" at the past talk of him sleeping on the job - hence the big grin emoticon. If I really was serious and wanted to be mean, I would have called it his "long Winter's nap."

[klw]

I would not be surprised to see a big move or moves coming shortly. With McCann signing and Navarro being close to signing, the market for catchers is tightening. The Tigers move may take Scherzer off the market and until the posting system is figured out, Tanaka is not available. Cano's demands have alienated the entire 2b market and if the Yankees get Beltran to join McCann, they might want a new solution for 2nd. This combo may make the demand for Hanigan, Bailey, and Phillips at its greatest. This may be the time Walt can get the returns, he wants.

[corkedbat]

How about an expanded deal around Brandon Phillips for Aaron Crow, possibly freeing up one of Chapman, Bailey, Cueto or Leake for a bat and maybe a young infielder or closer candidate?

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/1...in-trades.html

[mth123]

How about an expanded deal around Brandon Phillips for Aaron Crow, possibly freeing up one of Chapman, Bailey, Cueto or Leake for a bat and maybe a young infielder or closer candidate?

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/1...in-trades.html

I'm in the deal Phillips camp and even I don't think that's enough. Adding Collins makes it better because the Reds need the lefty, but adding even more money to the pen seems counter-productive.

[OneManBand]

Correct me if I'm wrong but the Reds never seem to have a bullpen issue. Even with injuries this team is usually pretty solid in that area. Dealing Phillips for bullpen support has the makings of the Kearns deal with the Nats.. This teams issue last season was inconsistency in scoring runs. They'd score 9 runs one game and then not score 9 runs combined for the next 8 games. So dealing a guy who drove in 100+ runs and plays gold glove defense just to dump his contract is ludicrous. Especially to KC and not get something in return other then bullpen arms.

[mdccclxix]

Thinking about Bailey...

Would you rather have:

I) Bailey for 2014 - 9 million in payroll space + 2015 draft pick around #40
a) Chapman as closer (finally close the book on him as starter?)
b) Longer opportunity to sign to an extension
(added) c) Stephenson is "more ready" in 2015 than if he were called into duty in 2014.

II) No Bailey for 2014 + 9 million in payroll space + approximately a top 25-50 prospect to help during the current window + smaller trade pieces
a) Chapman to rotation boom or bust
b) relieves "logjam" in rotation to an extent

[mdccclxix]

I'd have to lean towards keeping Bailey and trusting the organization to get a good draft pick in 2015. The trading Bailey weakens the rotation and the bullpen in a lot of circumstances. 2014 is still time to push for a championship.

[Kc61]

I'd have to lean towards keeping Bailey and trusting the organization to get a good draft pick in 2015. The trading Bailey weakens the rotation and the bullpen in a lot of circumstances. 2014 is still time to push for a championship.

This is the Reds' dilemma.

I don't think BP alone is going to fetch a major player for 2014. Maybe a couple of nice role players, but not a major player.

Trading Homer and BP gets you the major player.

But it also weakens pitching for 2014. Trading Bailey weakens pitching short term.

The best answer from a baseball perspective is to re-sign Choo, keep the outfield intact, and if BP gets traded get some nice players back. Keep Bailey.

If the Reds can't sign Choo, then there will be pressure to trade Homer to add back a major Choo replacement. This will weaken pitching.

This is the problemin a nutshell. I'd rather keep Choo, keep Bailey for 2014, and add role players.

But it might not be feasible financially.

[corkedbat]

Thinking about Bailey...

Would you rather have:

I) Bailey for 2014 - 9 million in payroll space + 2015 draft pick around #40
a) Chapman as closer (finally close the book on him as starter?)
b) Longer opportunity to sign to an extension

II) No Bailey for 2014 + 9 million in payroll space + approximately a top 25-50 prospect to help during the current window + smaller trade pieces
a) Chapman to rotation boom or bust
b) relieves "logjam" in rotation to an extent

As to Ib - everything I have read and heard over the past couple of year's has lead me to believe that Homer will test the market. If I'm wrong then the Reds need to get their very best offer in front of him and press him for a final answer )I find it difficult to believe that his hasn't alreadsy been done).

If they can sign him, Great! - this discussion is moot and i'll be as happy as anyone. If though. as I suspect, then Walt needs to seriously explore his value on the trade market. This does not mean that he has to be dealt - if a very high return is not there, then by all means keep him and take the draft pick. Not seriously exploring the trade option though would be a serious case of negligence IMO.

I understand those that say you don't trade good starting pitching and I agree to an extent. At the same time though, the Reds are a medium-sized market with a moderate payroll and a farmystem that (at present) is mediocre at best especially - with the exception of Stephenson - when it comes to impact prospects in the upper reaches.

I do not beleive that they Reds will be able to re-up or afford the abitration costs of Bailey, Latos, Cuseto and Chapman. At some point, I believe you need to start getting somehing more than a draft pick that is at least three-five years from helping the big league team. As painful as it may be you need to make tough decisions and deal them with at least a full year from their walk date to try and maximize your return.

I have read the arguments that the Reds window is small and they need to hang onto to Bailey (and others) to take advantage of that window and disagree. I believe that this roster is starting to become expensive and you need churn to grow younger, more affordable/controllable and more competitive now and in the future. I don't like the talk of well, lets try hard now and then become the Astros for another 5-10 years.

I'm certainly not saying its an easy job for Walt and it certainly isn't a no-risk propostion, but I like it better than watching, Arroyo, Choo, Bailey and possible even Latos and/or Cueto just walk away with nothing in return for a couple of late first or 2nd round picks.

[corkedbat]

Additionally, if your arguement is that the Reds should hold onto guys like Bailey without seeking a maximum return so we can take advantage of the Reds window for competeing with this current group - I would counter by saying unless the Reds dramatically upgrading talent this offseason that window probably slammed shut when Choo and Arroyo when through it.

[mdccclxix]

I do not beleive that they Reds will be able to re-up or afford the abitration costs of Bailey, Latos, Cuseto and Chapman. At some point, I believe you need to start getting somehing more than a draft pick that is at least three-five years from helping the big league team. As painful as it may be you need to make tough decisions and deal them with at least a full year from their walk date to try and maximize your return.

I have read the arguments that the Reds window is small and they need to hang onto to Bailey (and others) to take advantage of that window and disagree. I believe that this roster is starting to become expensive and you need churn to grow younger, more affordable/controllable and more competitive now and in the future. I don't like the talk of well, lets try had now and then become the Astros for another 5-10 years.

I'm certainly not saying its an easy job for Walt and it certainly isn't a no-risk propostion, but I like it better than watching, Arroyo, Choo, Bailey and possible even Latos and/or Cueto just walk away with nothing in return for a couple of late fist or 2nd round picks.

I agree a return on Bailey this year would accelerate their prospect pipeline. It would likely need to be an arm in A+ or AA last year that would come back for Bailey. One that could even help out in 2014 if needed. That way the Reds could pick Cueto and/or Latos for an extension in 2015 depending on how Stephenson and the new top 50 arm would do, etc. Throw in Hanigan or Phillips in such a deal and maybe the Reds have a prospect middle infield bat to plug in too, but that's getting too complicated.

If the Reds do keep Bailey and just get a 40th pick in the draft, that won't turn them into the Astros in 2015. They will absolutely go full out for Latos or Cueto or both.

Remaining stable in 2014 for the whole pitching staff could go a long way. The Reds won the division in 2012 without Choo with an amazing staff. Next year's with Bailey could be even better. Meanwhile, the other option is to bring back the entire team from last year, minus Phillips and Hanigan, plus the return they bring, plus Skip and Pena (so far). Meaning, swapping Phillips and Hanigan for Choo sticking around could have far less impact than moving Bailey and compromising the #1 aspect of this team's success: pitching.

[OneManBand]

Additionally, if your arguement is that the Reds should hold onto guys like Bailey without seeking a maximum return so we can take advantage of the Reds window for competeing with this current group - I would counter by saying unless the Reds dramatically upgrading talent this offseason that window probably slammed shut when Choo and Arroyo when through it.

In turn what did the Reds win with those two in the fold?

[PepperJack]

On Garrett Jones, if the price was right, I would welcome him in the Xavier Paul role.