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Thread: Unofficial Hot Stove News and Rumor Discussion Thread

  1. #346
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    Re: Unofficial Hot Stove News and Rumor Discussion Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I still view Phillips as an asset.

    I think he was hurt last season. The BP of the first part of the season was a very good player.

    Lost some range but he was an All Star and GG player.

    I don't want to dump his contract for one year of a solid player. I think BP if healthy helps the Reds for a few seasons to come.

    I know his contract is fairly large but if healthy in today's market he is worth it.
    I consider Phillips an asset too, about the only one, in fact, that can be traded to bring something to the team without hurting it so much that we seriously undermine our chances of contending in 2014. There's a good case for keeping Phillips, but, if that's the call, Hamilton's your center fielder, at least as it seems to be developing.

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  3. #347
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Unofficial Hot Stove News and Rumor Discussion Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Gardner is a free agent next year. So Reds trade Phillips and get one year of Gardner?

    Yanks have said they want to keep BG anyway, but I don't love the one year solution even if they decide to trade him.

    It was worth a shot with Choo but with Gardner I would want a multi-year commitment or I would just stay with Phillips and look for a Different outfielder, maybe a free agent.

    If Yanks include a good prospect, then I would consider going forward with a deal for Gardner.
    The best part of the deal is being rid of Phillips contract for 2015, 2016, 2017. He's not going to provide $39 Million in value over those three years. Better to have 0 value at 0 cost than $10 Million in value at $39 Million in cost. For 2014, I'd prefer Gardner and Ellis to Phillips and Hamilton.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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  5. #348
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    Re: Unofficial Hot Stove News and Rumor Discussion Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by HokieRed View Post
    I consider Phillips an asset too, about the only one, in fact, that can be traded to bring something to the team without hurting it so much that we seriously undermine our chances of contending in 2014. There's a good case for keeping Phillips, but, if that's the call, Hamilton's your center fielder, at least as it seems to be developing.
    But of course, if you satisfy CF, you leave a big hole at second base.

    Hamilton is an outfielder now, they are not re-converting him to the infield. Isn't happening.

    So I guess my bottom line is that to trade BP and create that hole at second, I'd want a pretty serious return. Not one year of Brett Gardner.

    Phillips is probably devalued on the market because his 2013 production doesn't match his contract liability. My point is that's a distortion because his 2012 hitting was injury impaired and he's a better player than that.

    To trade BP, I'd want a player who will start for the Reds in a needed position for multiple seasons. Not a one-year guy unless he's at Choo level. Otherwise, the Reds are not really filling holes, but just creating a game of musical chairs.

  6. #349
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    Re: Unofficial Hot Stove News and Rumor Discussion Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    The best part of the deal is being rid of Phillips contract for 2015, 2016, 2017. He's not going to provide $39 Million in value over those three years. Better to have 0 value at 0 cost than $10 Million in value at $39 Million in cost. For 2014, I'd prefer Gardner and Ellis to Phillips and Hamilton.
    Phillips was hurt last year. He is an All Star and a Gold Glover. He may decline but I see no basis to predict his doom as a player. In today's baseball he is absolutely worth his contract.

    Chase Utley fell off with more serious injury yet the Phillies re-signed him at age 34 recognizing that for second base even a diminished Utley has a lot of value.

    If you mean Mark Ellis of the Dodgers, I honestly don't know who you mean, he would simply add another sub .700 bat to the Reds lineup.

    Gardner (for one year), Votto, Bruce, Ludwick, Frazier, Mesoraco, Ellis, Cozart.

    Not for me, sorry. I'd rather have BP and find another outfielder in free agency to pair with Hamilton.
    Last edited by Kc61; 12-07-2013 at 01:19 PM.

  7. #350
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    Re: Unofficial Hot Stove News and Rumor Discussion Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    The best part of the deal is being rid of Phillips contract for 2015, 2016, 2017. He's not going to provide $39 Million in value over those three years. Better to have 0 value at 0 cost than $10 Million in value at $39 Million in cost. For 2014, I'd prefer Gardner and Ellis to Phillips and Hamilton.
    The way salaries are going, $39M will be worth around 5 wins, or 1.25 wins a season from Phillips justify it.

    I imagine, even if he continues to decline, Phillips will be a bargain in 2016 if the Reds want to trade him then. And the 10-5 rule just means the acquiring team will have to pay a bit more to convince Phillps to approve the trade.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  8. #351
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Unofficial Hot Stove News and Rumor Discussion Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Phillips was hurt last year. He is an All Star and a Gold Glover. He may decline but I see no basis to predict his doom as a player. In today's baseball he is absolutely worth his contract.

    Chase Utley fell off with more serious injury yet the Phillies re-signed him at age 34 recognizing that for second base even a diminished Utley has a lot of value.

    If you mean Mark Ellis of the Dodgers, I honestly don't know who you mean, he would simply add another sub .700 bat to the Reds lineup.

    Gardner (for one year), Votto, Bruce, Ludwick, Frazier, Mesoraco, Ellis, Cozart.

    Not for me, sorry. I'd rather have BP and find another outfielder in free agency to pair with Hamilton.
    OPS+ 2013. Ellis 92, Phillips 91. He'd add the same bat.

    I think Phillips skillset is the type that will fall off the map quickly. He's noticeably slowed, is an awful base-runner, his range won't be anything close to what we're basing our opinions on and he doesn't have a skillset that lends itself to getting on base. He isn't the power/on base skillset that ages well the way Utley theoretically is. If used properly, Phillips is likely a platoon player who does most of his damage against LHP by the last two years of his deal. His range will diminish enough that his defense will no longer justify playing him every day against RHP.

    Personally, I don't buy the hurt analysis. I'm thinking a low .700 OPS is the best we'll get from Phillips from here on out and doubt it will be that much by 2015. Get Ellis out of the NL West and he'd do at least that (like he did last year) for a season.

    The Reds will need to find an answer in 2015, but should be better positioned to do so with CF, LF and 1 of the rotation spots probably manned by Hamilton, Winker/Y-Rod and Stephenson in place of Ludwick, Bailey and theoretically Gardner in this case. Should be plenty of money to lock up an arm and add a better option to play 2B than Phillips will likely be.

    By the way, $39 Million is for 3 seasons. You need 1.667 wins per year to justify it.
    Last edited by mth123; 12-07-2013 at 02:25 PM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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  10. #352
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    Re: Unofficial Hot Stove News and Rumor Discussion Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    The way salaries are going, $39M will be worth around 5 wins, or 1.25 wins a season from Phillips justify it.

    I imagine, even if he continues to decline, Phillips will be a bargain in 2016 if the Reds want to trade him then. And the 10-5 rule just means the acquiring team will have to pay a bit more to convince Phillps to approve the trade.
    I think by 2016, Phillps glove will no longer justify his bat against RHP. He won't be worth 1 win in either of the last 2 years of his deal.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  11. #353
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    Re: Unofficial Hot Stove News and Rumor Discussion Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I think by 2016, Phillps glove will no longer justify his bat against RHP. He won't be worth 1 win in either of the last 2 years of his deal.
    Zach Cozaet was a worth 2 wins according to Fangraphs last year. Drew Stubbs was worth 1.1 wins in 2012. Basically, Phillips would have to drop to a sub .600 OPS to be worth replacement value with his defense. If you think that's where he'll be in 2016, definitley trade him. I just don't see it.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  12. #354
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    Re: Unofficial Hot Stove News and Rumor Discussion Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Zach Cozaet was a worth 2 wins according to Fangraphs last year. Drew Stubbs was worth 1.1 wins in 2012. Basically, Phillips would have to drop to a sub .600 OPS to be worth replacement value with his defense. If you think that's where he'll be in 2016, definitley trade him. I just don't see it.
    The thing I'm not getting across is that what you and I call "his defense" won't be "his defense" anymore by then IMO. He'll be 35 by 2016. His jaw-dropping plays now are already ones that were routine 5 years ago. He won't have the defensive value that Cozart and Stubbs had/have now. He also won't get the artificial bump they get by playing SS or CF either. He wouldn't have to be sub .600 OPS, but if he keeps playing against RHP into his mid-30s, I wouldn't be surprised by sub-.650.

    "His defense" will be a memory by 2016 IMO. That's what I mean about skillset. Phillips is all quickness. Even his bat seems to be based on quickness. I don't gamble $50 Million that he still has it at age 35. He already struggles against RHP, if his range continues to decline, he won't be worth starting against them.

    I think Phillips can still be a decent player in 2014 and ideally I'd keep him one more year and then look to move him, but he'll be 10 and 5 after 2014, so he needs to go now IMO.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  13. #355
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    Re: Unofficial Hot Stove News and Rumor Discussion Thread

    We return to the same problems. Lack of assets to trade. I see one of three choices:
    1. Phillips for a CF with a platoon at 2b (Schumaker-Ellis)
    2. Bailey, Leake, or Chapman--any one of which, in the absence of Arroyo, seriously compromises the pitching.
    3. Stephenson and/or Hamilton. The only prospects we have close enough to certainties to get 2014 major league help.
    Alonso, Grandal, Wood, and Gregorius were easily and obviously our most attractive major-league-ready assets. WJ got a lot for Alonso and Grandal, probably not enough for Wood, and made a risky but hard to criticize deal with Gregorius. 2013 was supposed to be the year. Now it's gotten a lot harder.

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    Re: Unofficial Hot Stove News and Rumor Discussion Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I think Phillips can still be a decent player in 2014 and ideally I'd keep him one more year and then look to move him, but he'll be 10 and 5 after 2014, so he needs to go now IMO.
    What if you went ahead and got a young 2B to take over in 2015? Would Phillips block a trade if you told him he wasn't going to start in Cincy?

  16. #357
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    Re: Unofficial Hot Stove News and Rumor Discussion Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by kpresidente View Post
    What if you went ahead and got a young 2B to take over in 2015? Would Phillips block a trade if you told him he wasn't going to start in Cincy?
    Good question. I'd guess he'd want compensation to waive it and it would further lower his value. Trading partners also know he'll be a year older, Most of the value they'd get is from 2014. If he repeats last year, I'd guess the Reds would need to send money with him to deal him.

    It just seems like the time is now to me.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  17. #358
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    Re: Unofficial Hot Stove News and Rumor Discussion Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by RedlegJ View Post
    Why do the Yankees even want more outfielders? They have Soriano, Gardner, Ichiro, and now Ellsbury. Where is the room?
    One of the best ways to improve the team is to add to strengths. The depth is nice, but it also might give you the freedom to make a deal for someone who can help also. IMO, make the deal for the best talent you can and worry about positions later. Top talent can usually be flipped for more talent.

    Example: Although the Reds would have no need for him, in any deal I made with KC I'd seriously consider asking for Billy Butler as secondary piece of a package, just to flip him to an AL team that is looking for a 1B/DH.

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  19. #359
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    Re: Unofficial Hot Stove News and Rumor Discussion Thread

    You guys sold me on the deal for Gardner. For some reason I thought he had at least two more years of arbitration. I'd still do it if they included Robertson though.

  20. #360
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    Re: Unofficial Hot Stove News and Rumor Discussion Thread

    I would love to have Gardner, his skill set would fit perfectly in the lineup and you give Hamilton time to develop. If Hamilton does not look like he can fill that void then you try to extend Gardner before the year is up.
    "When all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail"


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