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View Poll Results: What will Jay Bruce OPS in 2014?

Voters
131. You may not vote on this poll
  • < .800 : Jay has an off year.

    1 0.76%
  • .800 - .850 : Jay stays in the range we've seen recently from him.

    51 38.93%
  • .850 - .900 : Jay takes a step forward, adding power and/or plate discipline to boost his totals

    57 43.51%
  • > .900 : Jay ups his performance to the elite level we've all been waiting for!

    22 16.79%
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Thread: Expectations for Jay Bruce - 2014

  1. #1
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Expectations for Jay Bruce - 2014

    I like the discussions generated on the Hamilton and Phillips versions, so I thought I'd add another. Bruce is now entering the years when he should take that mythical "step forward" we've all been waiting for. Or maybe he won't, and he'll just remain a solid all-around contributor. Vote and post your thoughts here.
    "I’ll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. That’s just how I do things.” -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

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  3. #2
    OlafTheBlack Dan's Avatar
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    Re: Expectations for Jay Bruce - 2014

    He's going into his age 27 season. MVP type numbers this season from him.
    Sabermetrics can be boiled down to this simple truism: A batter's goal is to extend the inning. Extend enough innings and you're going to score runs. Extend more innings than your opponent and you're going to score more runs than him.

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  5. #3
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    Re: Expectations for Jay Bruce - 2014

    I don't want to vote on this one yet. My head and heart go in two different directions.

    I could understand someone making case for Bruce being what he is at this point. .800-.850 for the next few seasons, and continuing on his fine career.

    I could also buy the case for there being one more step from him, and him being that .850-.900 OPS guy for a few seasons.

    There could also be a case for a new hitting coach helping Bruce reach his peak, and him being a .900+ OPS monster for a few seasons.

    But, for right now, I'm just going to ride this fence, until someone convinces me which way seems more likely.

  6. #4
    Oy Vey! Red in Chicago's Avatar
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    Re: Expectations for Jay Bruce - 2014

    i voted in the .800 - .850 range and i'm perfectly happy with him at that level…

  7. #5
    Member mattfeet's Avatar
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    Re: Expectations for Jay Bruce - 2014

    My pessimistic views of Hamilton and Phillips are quite contradictory to how I see Bruce's 2014 season unfolding. .850 - .900 for me.

    -Matt

  8. #6
    Member RadfordVA's Avatar
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    Re: Expectations for Jay Bruce - 2014

    Same as career averages for me.

    Last season he struck out a little more than his career rate and walked slightly less. Does not seem to be any gradual breakout coming with the age curve. 7th season in this seems to be the player he will be in his prime. Which is valuable. If there is a breakout coming it seems like it will be out of nowhere and not a gradual honing of skills.

  9. #7
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    Re: Expectations for Jay Bruce - 2014

    While the numbers don't necessarily support it, I can't help but think Jay took a small step forward this year in his plate approach. His K% was up and his BB% down, but anecdotally he seemed to flail a little less desperately at breaking balls away, consistently go a bit deeper into counts and altogether have a better game plan when coming to the plate. Perhaps I'm alone here, but I feel like I saw some maturation.

    Another step this year (including statistical improvement), .850-.900 for me.

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  11. #8
    OlafTheBlack Dan's Avatar
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    Re: Expectations for Jay Bruce - 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by BillDoran View Post
    While the numbers don't necessarily support it, I can't help but think Jay took a small step forward this year in his plate approach. His K% was up and his BB% down, but anecdotally he seemed to flail a little less desperately at breaking balls away, consistently go a bit deeper into counts and altogether have a better game plan when coming to the plate. Perhaps I'm alone here, but I feel like I saw some maturation.

    Another step this year (including statistical improvement), .850-.900 for me.
    I saw that as well. His slumps weren't quite as deep as they'd been in past years. That's long been my only criticism of him...that he didn't seem to have a "baseline of performance" that kept his slumps from being huge voids of production. This year he did seem to have that. I hope that's been a focus of his and he continues to improve that baseline.
    Sabermetrics can be boiled down to this simple truism: A batter's goal is to extend the inning. Extend enough innings and you're going to score runs. Extend more innings than your opponent and you're going to score more runs than him.

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  13. #9
    Member harangatang's Avatar
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    Re: Expectations for Jay Bruce - 2014

    I think his OPS is kind of dependent on if offense is still down across the NL. His OPS+ took a slight hit last year, but the unadjusted OPS went quite a bit down due to his slugging %. Worst case scenario IMO is he has an OPS+ of 120ish like he has been the last 4 years. Whether or not his unadjusted OPS is above .800 may have to do with other factors.

  14. #10
    Member jhu1321's Avatar
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    Re: Expectations for Jay Bruce - 2014

    .850-.900 from me. Saw an improvement in approach most of last year which a new hitting coach will help. He's going to be stud.

  15. #11
    Member Superdude's Avatar
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    Re: Expectations for Jay Bruce - 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by RadfordVA View Post
    Same as career averages for me.

    Last season he struck out a little more than his career rate and walked slightly less. Does not seem to be any gradual breakout coming with the age curve. 7th season in this seems to be the player he will be in his prime. Which is valuable. If there is a breakout coming it seems like it will be out of nowhere and not a gradual honing of skills.
    More or less how I feel. Just get the feeling he maxed out his skills at a young age and doesn't have anywhere else to go. Maybe Long finally gets that extra something to click, but put me down for .825.

  16. #12
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    Re: Expectations for Jay Bruce - 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by Superdude View Post
    More or less how I feel. Just get the feeling he maxed out his skills at a young age and doesn't have anywhere else to go. Maybe Long finally gets that extra something to click, but put me down for .825.

    I can listen to the argument that he will never take another step, whether that's because of approach, plate discipline, or something else. I can't buy that there is nothing else in there though, because the flashes are still enormous.

    I guess I'm just going to be one of the fans that's happy with Bruce the way he is, but will always believe there is more in there until the day it just never happens. I know the odds are getting longer, but someone with his skillset that has had months with an OPS over 1.000, while coming into his prime years, keeps my hopes up.

  17. #13
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Expectations for Jay Bruce - 2014

    I think he is who he is and I'm not optimistic about any material steps towards the top tier.

  18. #14
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Expectations for Jay Bruce - 2014

    I think a breakout is absolutely possible, but I don't see any evidentiary basis for expecting one -- other than the age 27 "peak". But if anything, he's backslid a bit, so I think hoping for an .800-.850 repeat is the most reasonable expectation.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  19. #15
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Expectations for Jay Bruce - 2014

    I'm Bullish on Jay Bruce. .900+.

    Can we clone him?
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS


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