Erardi's Trade

[Benihana]

Brandon Phillips and Aroldis Chapman for Rick Porcello, Austin Jackson and Nick Castellanos.

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/2...PT04/311160062

I think this could be a great deal for both sides. And I agree with his assertion that sometimes Hot Stove is better than the actual season.

[lollipopcurve]

The teams match up very well. But I think the Tigers are giving up too much in the proposed deal. I think the Reds would need to sweeten with a good prospect, say along the lines of YRod. Or, they could negotiate $$$ on Phillips' contract.

But in general, a very nice proposal that could work well for both teams -- which is how real trades get made.

[757690]

Brandon Phillips and Aroldis Chapman for Rick Porcello, Austin Jackson and Nick Castellanos.

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/2...PT04/311160062

I think this could be a great deal for both sides. And I agree with his assertion that sometimes Hot Stove is better than the actual season.

Why is this in the minor league forum?

And it's a terrible trade for the Reds.

Reds are giving up two premium players and getting two okay players and one prospect. And I'm not a fan of Castellanos. We see his type all the time. Decent bat for corner infielder in the minors. They rarely turn into anything special.

[Benihana]

Why is this in the minor league forum?

And it's a terrible trade for the Reds.

Reds are giving up two premium players and getting two okay players and one prospect. And I'm not a fan of Castellanos. We see his type all the time. Decent bat for corner infielder in the minors. They rarely turn into anything special.

Not sure how this ended up in the minor league forum? I must've made an error. Can mods move this to tORG?

As far as the trade, I'm in the keep Phillips camp, but I would deal him straight up for Austin Jackson (which I proposed on this board last week). So to me, the trade really comes to trading Chapman for Porcello and Castellanos. If the Reds believe Chapman can successfully convert to the rotation this year, maybe you don't make that move. But if Chapman is a reliever for good, I'd rather have Porcello and Castellanos.

[757690]

Not sure how this ended up in the minor league forum? I must've made an error. Can mods move this to tORG?

As far as the trade, I'm in the keep Phillips camp, but I would deal him straight up for Austin Jackson (which I proposed on this board last week). So to me, the trade really comes to trading Chapman for Porcello and Castellanos. If the Reds believe Chapman can successfully convert to the rotation this year, maybe you don't make that move. But if Chapman is a reliever for good, I'd rather have Porcello and Castellanos.

I generally agree with this, but I don't trade Chapman to a team that sees him as a closer. It kills his value.

There are two problems with the proposal:

1. It assumes that Phillips has little or no trade value without the Reds picking up most of his contract. Eradi says almost exactly that in the article.

2. It assumes Chapman's value is that of a closer.

I'm not trading a gold glove 2B and a possible elite starter for an all around average CF, a fifth starter and a prospect.

Remember, this means someone like Mark Ellis at 2B or trying Hamilton. This means the Reds are replacing Choo with Jackson, Phillips with a big question mark, and Arroyo with Porcello, while losing their closer, and any chance of Chapman as a starter. It really hurts the 2014 Reds.

[Joseph]

Does Mr. Jackson become a LFer? What of Mr Hamilton? Does he move back to SS? Does he become our second baseman?

Overall I like the trade proposal.

[mth123]

Not sure how this ended up in the minor league forum? I must've made an error. Can mods move this to tORG?

As far as the trade, I'm in the keep Phillips camp, but I would deal him straight up for Austin Jackson (which I proposed on this board last week). So to me, the trade really comes to trading Chapman for Porcello and Castellanos. If the Reds believe Chapman can successfully convert to the rotation this year, maybe you don't make that move. But if Chapman is a reliever for good, I'd rather have Porcello and Castellanos.

I think Chapman and Phillips to the Tigers with Jackson and prospects back makes a lot of sense. I proposed a similar deal earlier. Chapman, Phillips and a OF filler like Robinson or Lamarre for Jackson, Castellanos, Bruce Rondon and Devon Travis.

I prefer Rondon and Travis over Porcello. The Reds have a full rotation and I'm not sure that Porcello would crack it. Rondon would be a closing candidate with Chapman dealt or a backfill for Hoover who would seem the best choice to close to me. Travis would be a 2B prospect that could become the 2B mid-year or in 2015. The Reds would be better off using the money they'd have to pay Porcello to acquire some positions players.

I'm in agreement that Phillips for Jackson would make sense. I'd easily deal Chapman for Castellanos, Rondon and Travis and wouldn't mind throwing in a kicker to make it happen.

The Reds are not giving up premium players here. It's a declining 33 year old who they owe $50 Million to and a replaceable closer with an escalating cost who doesn't want to start and is far from a certainty even if he decides to.

Here is a post where I proposed it as a part of an off-season plan.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showp...62&postcount=7

Makes enough sense that several people on this board as well as Erardi see the Reds and Tigers hooking up, so we know it will never happen. Stuff that seems a clear match just never does.

[Benihana]

Does Mr. Jackson become a LFer? What of Mr Hamilton? Does he move back to SS? Does he become our second baseman?

Overall I like the trade proposal.

Hamilton goes to 2B in this scenario.

[mth123]

Does Mr. Jackson become a LFer? What of Mr Hamilton? Does he move back to SS? Does he become our second baseman?

Overall I like the trade proposal.

Back to AAA to work on his bat where he belongs.

Centerfielders who can play the positions defensively, get on base and add a little pop are always in demand. If Hamilton comes along, the Reds should have no problem getting other stuff they need for Jackson after 2014. For 2014, Hamilton isn't ready and the Reds need Jackson.

[lollipopcurve]

Centerfielders who can play the positions defensively, get on base and add a little pop are always in demand.

Yep. And Jackson is a superb CF.

[mth123]

I generally agree with this, but I don't trade Chapman to a team that sees him as a closer. It kills his value.

There are two problems with the proposal:

1. It assumes that Phillips has little or no trade value without the Reds picking up most of his contract. Eradi says almost exactly that in the article.

2. It assumes Chapman's value is that of a closer.

I'm not trading a gold glove 2B and a possible elite starter for an all around average CF, a fifth starter and a prospect.

Remember, this means someone like Mark Ellis at 2B or trying Hamilton. This means the Reds are replacing Choo with Jackson, Phillips with a big question mark, and Arroyo with Porcello, while losing their closer, and any chance of Chapman as a starter. It really hurts the 2014 Reds.

1. Choo is gone. Jackson would be replacing the three headed inadequate monster of Heisey, Robinson and Hamilton and it's a huge upgrade.

2. I don't see Porcello in the rotation replacing Bailey and it's the part of the deal I don't like. Cueto, Latos, Bailey are clearly ahead of him and Leake and Cingrani are a fine back end of the rotation. Porcello would guive the team a deep rotation, but there are other needs that his money could go to.

3. Somebody like Ellis at 2B wouldn't be the huge downgrade people seem to think. Ellis and Phillips both posted an OPS+ of 92 in 2013. Ellis UZR 150 was 7.8 in 2013 vs Phillips 8.5. Certainly not worth the $45 Million difference in commitment between the two. I think both players are due for a further decline, may as well get out of the horrible deal.

4. Castellanos is a RH power bat who the Reds will control for cheap. Not much in the game more valuable than that. Guys who throw 100 MPH are becoming more commonplace. Guys who can hit 25 HRs from the right side are definitely in short supply these days.

5. Chapman is not a starter, doesn't seem to want to be and is far from an elite starter if he converts. He's a question mark like any other young pitcher who hasn't started in the major leagues. Of course he only has three years of control left and isn't cheap anymore which makes him a lot less valuable than a guy like Dylan Bundy, Robert Stephenson or Jameson Tallion.

[757690]

1. Choo is gone. Jackson would be replacing the three headed inadequate monster of Heisey, Robinson and Hamilton and it's a huge upgrade.

2. I don't see Porcello in the rotation replacing Bailey and it's the part of the deal I don't like. Cueto, Latos, Bailey are clearly ahead of him and Leake and Cingrani are a fine back end of the rotation. Porcello would guive the team a deep rotation, but there are other needs that his money could go to.

3. Somebody like Ellis at 2B wouldn't be the huge downgrade people seem to think. Ellis and Phillips both posted an OPS+ of 92 in 2013. Ellis UZR 150 was 7.8 in 2013 vs Phillips 8.5. Certainly not worth the $45 Million difference in commitment between the two. I think both players are due for a further decline, may as well get out of the horrible deal.

4. Castellanos is a RH power bat who the Reds will control for cheap. Not much in the game more valuable than that. Guys who throw 100 MPH are becoming more commonplace. Guys who can hit 25 HRs from the right side are definitely in short supply these days.

5. Chapman is not a starter, doesn't seem to want to be and is far from an elite starter if he converts. He's a question mark like any other young pitcher who hasn't started in the major leagues. Of course he only has three years of control left and isn't cheap anymore which makes him a lot less valuable than a guy like Dylan Bundy, Robert Stephenson or Jameson Tallion.

1 The only reason to trade Chapman and Phillips togther is to get elite talent and make up for Choo's loss. Otherwise, it's wasting valuable parts of the 2014 team and beyond. If you want to fill holes and build up the farm, trade Bailey.

2. Agree

3. Ellis is going to be 37 in 2014. He has never hit well, and doesn't play everyday. His OPS+ is rather meaningless, as I doubt he would hit much better in GABP than he did in Dodger Stadium. He has no power, and is much more likely to have his skills decline than Phillips. I like him, but I see him as a full win below Phillips in terms production, at the very least for next year.

4. Here's Castellanos' slash line from last year in AAA. .343/.450/.793. He has never hit 25 HR's in a season. Last year was his career high and he hit 18. He looks like Wes Middlebrooks, but with much worse stats in the minors. The notion that there are more guys with Chapman's talent around than Castellanos' talent is beyond absurd. There are far more corner infielders in the minors with nice bats than there are guys who throw over 100 MPH and have a nice slider and good control.

5. Chapman has faced MLB hitters and been dominant against them, one of the best pitchers in the league. Let's not dismiss that as meaningless just because he wasn't starting. Surely those numbers won't be the same, but it's not like he's a green rookie and we don't know how his stuff will play in the majors.

[RedlegJake]

Moved it for you. As to the trade, I like it. Even if the Reds have to add a guy like YRod, I'd do it in a heartbeat if the Tigers agreed to it. Jackson can play CF and can move over when BH is ready or if he flops at 2nd base. Porcello is a solid starter for the backend of the rotation with some upside yet. Castellanos is the wild card. 3B/LF and the nice bit is the Reds aren't forced to push him too fast. He can split time with Frazier and/or Ludwick.

[RiverRat13]

If you make this deal, could you then send Leake to Anaheim for Kendrick? Is he enough to get that done?

If you like advanced stats, Porcello is much more than a fifth starter. He's posted WARs of 2.6, 3.0 and 3.2 the last three years.

[NeilHamburger]

The only player I trade Chapman for is Stanton.

I still hold the belief that he will be a dominant starter. My guess is after doing it for a few months he will be glad he made the move to starting even if he doesn't want to at first.