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Thread: Reds interested in Beltran.....I hope thats sign of....

  1. #16
    Member Mike Honcho's Avatar
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    Re: Reds interested in Beltran.....I hope thats sign of....

    Quote Originally Posted by Ladeda View Post
    Beltran turns 37 in April correct? Signing him and losing a draft pick is bad enough as this is one of the stronger draft classes over the past few years.

    He's 37, his WAR has gone from 4.5 to 3.8 to 2.4. That's not a good trend line. You can't really expect him to be much better than 2.4 next year given his age, and he has a better shot of being closer to 1.5 or worse, then a 3 WAR.

    Signing him and not using the money to extend Latos, Cueto and Bailey is a huge problem.

    Signing him to a 3 year deal would be awful as it would block Winker and Erwin in 2016.

    Money would be better off upgrading another position. Why pay $10mm plus (who knows what he will get) for a 2 WAR or potentially worse- a 1.0 WAR or less. We already have 1 of those LF's-- his name is Ludwick-- we don't need a 2nd.

    The Reds don't have an infinite payroll-- spending good money on Beltran wouldn't be wise.
    I think whoever signs Beltran is going to regret it but the Reds just can't afford it, period. 2014 would probably be ok but you know he'll get hurt at some point during that contract. When Luddy went down that destroyed the line up last season. Why go down that road again?

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  3. #17
    malingered here too long malcontent's Avatar
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    Re: Reds interested in Beltran.....I hope thats sign of....

    Quote Originally Posted by SporkLover View Post
    Reds need to just lock up Chooooooo.
    Agreed. For awhile the talk about his struggles against LHP had me going, but he actually had a .347 OBP against LHP last year (.340 career). Not bad.

    He also seems to have the perfect attitude as a team player. Reds will lose a lot if he leaves.
    Everything is perfect, but there is a lot of room for improvement. --- Shunryu Suzuki-roshi

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    Re: Reds interested in Beltran.....I hope thats sign of....

    Quote Originally Posted by malcontent View Post
    Agreed. For awhile the talk about his struggles against LHP had me going, but he actually had a .347 OBP against LHP last year (.340 career). Not bad.

    He also seems to have the perfect attitude as a team player. Reds will lose a lot if he leaves.
    If they sign Choo, what's that do to the chances of signing Bruce? There's not an unlimited supply of money for LTC's.

  5. #19
    Member Mike Honcho's Avatar
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    Re: Reds interested in Beltran.....I hope thats sign of....

    Quote Originally Posted by Halfway between View Post
    If they sign Choo, what's that do to the chances of signing Bruce? There's not an unlimited supply of money for LTC's.
    Exactly. Choo was never coming back.

  6. #20
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    Re: Reds interested in Beltran.....I hope thats sign of....

    Choo has 2.4 and 5.2 WAR the last two years. Bruce has 2.2 and 4.1

    If you can only lock up 1, it should be Choo. Here is why:

    If Shin-Soo Choo's game was reliant on speed, athleticism, defense or power, he'd be one of the biggest risks on the free-agent market. At the age of 31, all of those skills will deteriorate over the life of a long-term deal.

    Yet, Choo is on this list because of a skill that won't wain over the years. In fact, it could become more prolific as the outfielder garners more plate appearances and becomes an even more accomplished hitter in the box.

    Since becoming a full-time player in 2009, Choo ranks fifth in all of baseball (Baseball-Reference PI subscription required) with a .392 on-base percentage, including a .423 mark in 2013. The only players ahead of Choo on the list of on-base machines: Joey Votto, Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder and Joe Mauer.
    Signing Bruce long term will show a drastic decline of the skill(s) that you're signing him for over the life on the contract. Choo would be your lead off hitter for his entire career....never really under performing the skill set you're paying him for. He could move to a corner OF and let Hamilton take over CF at some point. Choo's a better long term deal than Bruce.

  7. #21
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Reds interested in Beltran.....I hope thats sign of....

    Jay Bruce is only 26, but he's already locked up for the next four years. The best prospects are outfielders and they are coming in droves by then. I don't think the Reds need to lock-up Bruce unless they can get a sweetheart deal. As much as I like the guy, a new deal for him is just not a priority at this point IMO.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Old school 1983 (11-30-2013)

  9. #22
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    Re: Reds interested in Beltran.....I hope thats sign of....

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Jay Bruce is only 26, but he's already locked up for the next four years. The best prospects are outfielders and they are coming in droves by then. I don't think the Reds need to lock-up Bruce unless they can get a sweetheart deal. As much as I like the guy, a new deal for him is just not a priority at this point IMO.
    I totally agree. The organizations strength is in the outfield in the minor league levels. Hamilton, Ervin, Winker, and YRod offer some serious depths there and I can't see all of them failing. They could offer productive major league pieces in a few years, trade chips now, or if enough of them pan out, they could turn Bruce, who will be expensive in comparison, into a trade chip.

    This, to me, actually comes full circle when considering signing Beltran. Choo would require a larger financial commitment over a larger number of years. He would do more to block cheaper younger, and at that point, potentially more productive younger players. If Beltran can be signed for less years and money, in 2014 he could grab the lions share of the playing time while Ludwick could be kept in reserve if an injury occurs. IMO he is a much better backup plan than we saw in 2013, despite his cost. The following year, I'd be willing to bet one of the aforementioned outfield prospects would be ready to cover left field in the event of an injury to Beltran, and then the year after than partake in a platoon with a prospect the following year in order to ease the prospect into the majors. I definitely think there is an injury risk associated with Beltran, but if the Reds play their cards right it can be covered much better than the Ludwick injey of 2013. Also Beltran would help to make up some of Choo's production without having to trade a proven big league piece. Yes you'd have to give up a draft pick, but at that point, the Reds may be able to flip the players that are constantly mentioned as potential trade options here for a known commodity prospect that could possibly be better than what could be drafted.

  10. #23
    Member Strike3Called's Avatar
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    Re: Reds interested in Beltran.....I hope thats sign of....

    Choo gets on base more than 90% of the people in baseball. Im not sure he'd be blocking someone more productive in your farm system. The ability he has is not the sort of ability to decline over time. Think this guy:

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...wynnto01.shtml

    He's a great investment....especially playing Center. As he gets older he can move to one of the corners.

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    Revering4Blue (11-30-2013)

  12. #24
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    Re: Reds interested in Beltran.....I hope thats sign of....

    Quote Originally Posted by Strike3Called View Post
    Choo gets on base more than 90% of the people in baseball. Im not sure he'd be blocking someone more productive in your farm system. The ability he has is not the sort of ability to decline over time. Think this guy:

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...wynnto01.shtml

    He's a great investment....especially playing Center. As he gets older he can move to one of the corners.
    One thing correlates to winning more than OBP, and that's top notch pitching. Signing a Beltran to a shorter deal then allowing cheaper controlled guys within the organization to take his spot rather than signing Choo would allow the Reds to sign a Bailey or Latos to a back loaded contract and afford it.

  13. #25
    Member Mike Honcho's Avatar
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    Re: Reds interested in Beltran.....I hope thats sign of....

    Quote Originally Posted by Old school 1983 View Post
    One thing correlates to winning more than OBP, and that's top notch pitching. Signing a Beltran to a shorter deal then allowing cheaper controlled guys within the organization to take his spot rather than signing Choo would allow the Reds to sign a Bailey or Latos to a back loaded contract and afford it.
    remove Latos from that and you are spot on. Homer Bailey is gone.

  14. #26
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    Re: Reds interested in Beltran.....I hope thats sign of....

    It's not enough to point out that Choo is a great player. The market knows he's a great player and will price him accordingly. The question is about value and fit. You could say that Robinson Cano is a great player, or whatever top FA hits the market next year, or the year after. They're all great players. The fact that Choo played for the Reds last year doesn't matter, he's a FA now. Given that Boras is his agent, you can probably forget about any kind of discount. Does he fit? I don't see how. We have OF prospects. We need a RH bat. We need a CF much more than a corner OF.

  15. #27
    Member Mike Honcho's Avatar
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    Re: Reds interested in Beltran.....I hope thats sign of....

    Quote Originally Posted by kpresidente View Post
    It's not enough to point out that Choo is a great player. The market knows he's a great player and will price him accordingly. The question is about value and fit. You could say that Robinson Cano is a great player, or whatever top FA hits the market next year, or the year after. They're all great players. The fact that Choo played for the Reds last year doesn't matter, he's a FA now. Given that Boras is his agent, you can probably forget about any kind of discount. Does he fit? I don't see how. We have OF prospects. We need a RH bat. We need a CF much more than a corner OF.
    Not to mention Choo leaving brings back a draft pick.

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    Re: Reds interested in Beltran.....I hope thats sign of....

    Nope, Beltran goes to the Yankees. So you can cross Granderson and Beltran off your list for potential OF free agent signings. Are the Reds going to make any signings of significance this off season?

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    malingered here too long malcontent's Avatar
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    Re: Reds interested in Beltran.....I hope thats sign of....

    Quote Originally Posted by Lewdog View Post
    Nope, Beltran goes to the Yankees. So you can cross Granderson and Beltran off your list for potential OF free agent signings. Are the Reds going to make any signings of significance this off season?
    Does Jason Kubel qualify?
    Everything is perfect, but there is a lot of room for improvement. --- Shunryu Suzuki-roshi

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    Re: Reds interested in Beltran.....I hope thats sign of....

    Quote Originally Posted by Lewdog View Post
    Nope, Beltran goes to the Yankees. So you can cross Granderson and Beltran off your list for potential OF free agent signings. Are the Reds going to make any signings of significance this off season?
    I wouldn't hold your breath on the Reds signing someone at $15M annually


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