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Thread: Dexter Fowler traded to Houston

  1. #46
    Member klw's Avatar
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    Re: Dexter Fowler traded to Houston

    I guess the Rockies had to clear money to sign Morneau. Considering the return for Fowler and what Ellsbury is getting and it is clear that some players are still being overvalued and Moneyball has to won out yet.

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  3. #47
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    Re: Dexter Fowler traded to Houston

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    I liked the Choo deal, too, but not as much as the Latos trade. Everyone knew Choo would be dealt, it was a question of to whom. With Latos, I don't think anyone but GM's even knew he was on the market.
    That is very very true. That was an out of the blue move. Awesome trade though even if Grandal or Alonso end up being stars, Alonso would never have been Votto, Grandal wasn't needed due to catching depth (major PED turn off as well, and Boxberger may not even be good enough to be in the Reds pen right now. It really was like a dream trade that brought in exactly what the Reds needed at the cost of guys that would be blocked anyway by better players. The only one that I still see up in the air is Mes v. Grandal. At the time I liked Grandal better, but after the PED suspension, the deal looks even better IMO.

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    Re: Dexter Fowler traded to Houston

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    I guess I just take issue with when you said Leake-Fowler would be a "massive overpay." I think it is a fair deal. I understand that you wouldn't have done it, but it's not a massive overpay. Stephenson and Hamilton for Fowler? Yeah, that would be a massive overpay. But not Leake-Lamarre for Fowler, IMO.
    Going by advanced stats, which I believe undervalue Leake greatly, he was ranked 53 among all starting pitchers that qualified in xFIP in 2013. When you consider teams need 5 starting pitchers, that means Leake was in the top half and very close to the top third of all starting pitchers.

    Fowler was ranked 23 among all CF in terms of WAR in 2013. That means Fowler was in the bottom third of all CF. It means there are 22 better options out there for Fowler to fill CF.

    Starting pitchers who can give you 200 innings who are in their prime are extremely rare, and need to be kept unless offered a kings ransom. They are far more valuable than a league average CF. Giving up a good 200 IP for the 23rd best CF in the majors is a huge overpay.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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  7. #49
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    Re: Dexter Fowler traded to Houston

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Going by advanced stats, which I believe undervalue Leake greatly, he was ranked 53 among all starting pitchers that qualified in xFIP in 2013. When you consider teams need 5 starting pitchers, that means Leake was in the top half and very close to the top third of all starting pitchers.

    Fowler was ranked 23 among all CF in terms of WAR in 2013. That means Fowler was in the bottom third of all CF. It means there are 22 better options out there for Fowler to fill CF.

    Starting pitchers who can give you 200 innings who are in their prime are extremely rare, and need to be kept unless offered a kings ransom. They are far more valuable than a league average CF. Giving up a good 200 IP for the 23rd best CF in the majors is a huge overpay.
    Again, I'm really only taking issue here with your claim of a hypothetical "massive overpay." So we're closer here than it might seem. We both think Fowler is a nice player, and we both think Leake is a good pitcher.

    Having said that, I think the numbers you just put up there illustrate very little for your case. CF is the most difficult position to play in the OF and one of the three most difficult positions on the diamond. Fowler is 26 and has yet to hit his peak 27-age year, but he's already a good player at a difficult position. Leake, to my mind, has hit his peak. That's a good place to be, but being the 52nd ranked SP in MLB does not make you untouchable if there is value to be gotten in return.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

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    Re: Dexter Fowler traded to Houston

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    Again, I'm really only taking issue here with your claim of a hypothetical "massive overpay." So we're closer here than it might seem. We both think Fowler is a nice player, and we both think Leake is a good pitcher.

    Having said that, I think the numbers you just put up there illustrate very little for your case. CF is the most difficult position to play in the OF and one of the three most difficult positions on the diamond. Fowler is 26 and has yet to hit his peak 27-age year, but he's already a good player at a difficult position. Leake, to my mind, has hit his peak. That's a good place to be, but being the 52nd ranked SP in MLB does not make you untouchable if there is value to be gotten in return.
    Leake is a year younger than Fowler, but has hit his peak and on the way down, while Folwer is about to hit his and on the way up?

    CF is a difficult position to play, but it's a piece of cake compared to being a starting pitcher.

    53 out 150 is far more valuable than 23 out of 30.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    Dexter Fowler traded to Houston

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    53 out 150 is far more valuable than 23 out of 30.
    That 23 rank is deceptive since Fowler was injured and WAR is a counting stat. He was 17 in 2012, when Leake was terrible. Ultimately, though, I don't think this sort of ranking comparison really works -- apples and oranges -- and tells us nothing about the relative quality of the players involved.
    Last edited by RedEye; 12-03-2013 at 11:45 PM.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

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    Re: Dexter Fowler traded to Houston

    Not getting this Leake for Fowler talk. I think Leake for Fowler is a no brainer in favor of dealing Leake for Fowler. Considering contract and cost, team by team, who would the Reds get that's a better option?


    Span? I'd take Fowler
    Revere? Fowler for me.
    BJ Upton? Fowler in a landslide!
    Juan Lagares? Fowler, easily.
    Ruggiano? Marisnick? Osuna? Please, Fowler.

    Choo or Hamilton? Fowler will out produce Hamilton by 100 to 150 OPS points in 2014. Choo is completely out of the Reds price range.
    Andrew McCutchen? OK, I'd take McCutchen.
    Carlos Gomez? I'd take Gomez.
    Bourjos or Jay? I'd rather have Fowler.
    Ryan Sweeney or Brett Jackson? Fowler please.

    Kemp or Ethier? Unless the Dodgers are pitching in $75 Million plus, I'll take Fowler.
    Pagan? Close here. Call it a push.
    Eaton or Pollock? I'll take the AZ guys.
    Cameron Maybin? Fowler in a no brainer.
    Corey Dickerson? Rockies are choosing Dickerson at the minimum and don't have to give anything to get him, so they are dealing Fowler for an arm. Not sure I'd take Dickerson over Fowler if I had to deal Leake for one, but I'll call this a push.


    As you can see, there is a shortage of guys who can play CF and hit reasonably. Fowler is signed for $7.35 Million in 2014. In 2015, if Hamilton, Y-Rod, Ervin or somebody else is ready, Fowler could be dealt for talent in return. Meanwhile, the Reds could fill Leake's spot with Chapman and get the bullpen cost under control. Could they get anything better for Leake? Hard to see it from here. It's possible the Rockies actually would rather have Lyles and Barnes at minimum cost than Leake at an arb aided $5 to $6 Million. What did Doug Fister fetch in trade again?
    Last edited by mth123; 12-04-2013 at 03:54 AM.
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  13. #53
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    Re: Dexter Fowler traded to Houston

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Not getting this Leake for Fowler talk. I think Leake for Fowler is a no brainer in favor of dealing Leake for Fowler. Considering contract and cost, team by team, who would the Reds get that's a better option?


    Span? I'd take Fowler
    Revere? Fowler for me.
    BJ Upton? Fowler in a landslide!
    Juan Lagares? Fowler, easily.
    Ruggiano? Marisnick? Osuna? Please, Fowler.

    Choo or Hamilton? Fowler will out produce Hamilton by 100 to 150 OPS points in 2014. Choo is completely out of the Reds price range.
    Andrew McCutchen? OK, I'd take McCutchen.
    Carlos Gomez? I'd take Gomez.
    Bourjos or Jay? I'd rather have Fowler.
    Ryan Sweeney or Brett Jackson? Fowler please.

    Kemp or Ethier? Unless the Dodgers are pitching in $75 Million plus, I'll take Fowler.
    Pagan? Close here. Call it a push.
    Eaton or Pollock? I'll take the AZ guys.
    Cameron Maybin? Fowler in a no brainer.
    Corey Dickerson? Rockies are choosing Dickerson at the minimum and don't have to give anything to get him, so they are dealing Fowler for an arm. Not sure I'd take Dickerson over Fowler if I had to deal Leake for one, but I'll call this a push.


    As you can see, there is a shortage of guys who can play CF and hit reasonably. Fowler is signed for $7.35 Million in 2014. In 2015, if Hamilton, Y-Rod, Ervin or somebody else is ready, Fowler could be dealt for talent in return. Meanwhile, the Reds could fill Leake's spot with Chapman and get the bullpen cost under control. Could they get anything better for Leake? Hard to see it from here. It's possible the Rockies actually would rather have Lyles and Barnes at minimum cost than Leake at an arb aided $5 to $6 Million. What did Doug Fister fetch in trade again?

    Span is better than Fowler, or at worst the same if they played in the same park.

    You can get Span, Eaton, Pegan and Gardner who you left out among others, all for much less than a 26 year old veteran starting pitcher who gives you 200 IP and a 3.5-4.00 ERA plus without. paying them $7M.

    Fister is much older than Leake, into his declining years, and the Angels offered Howie Kendrick for him. Just because the Tigers choose to reduce salary over better players doesn't lower trade value of starting pitching.

    Look what a few months of Matt Garza brought. One year and few months of Jake Peavy and his huge salary netted Inglacias from the Red Sox. Look at trades for quality starting pitching. There are far more ones like the Latos one than the Fister one. Starting pitching is the hardest commodity to find in MLB, always has been, always will be. It's far harder to find and far more expensive to get a decent starting pitcher than a decent CF. It's not even close.

    Think of what one year of Bailey might bring. I wouldn't trade one year of Bailey for two years of Fowler. No way I'm trading two years of Leake for that, and Leake and Bailey are virtually the same pitcher in terms of production, imo.

    Edit: You can add the following CF who are as good or better than Folwer who can be had for less than Leake:

    Rasmus
    Crisp
    Gentry (who was just traded for Michael Choice)
    Venable
    Blanco
    L. Martin
    Cain
    De Aza
    Last edited by 757690; 12-04-2013 at 10:13 AM.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  14. #54
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    Re: Dexter Fowler traded to Houston

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    Based on what? Again, the Reds potentially have five SP even without Leake (Cueto, Latos, Bailey, Chapman, Cingrani). They just acquired a young lefty for some AAA insurance today.

    If Choo leaves and Hamilton needs seasoning, they have zero good options in CF. I've been one of Heisey's biggest defenders, but he's not the answer.
    1. Chapman is not a starting pitcher. He's a reliever that might get transitioned into starting. This type of transition works sometimes, but we need to consider that it might also fail miserably. In 2014, Leake is a better starting pitcher than Chapman or Holman (the guy we just got from AZ). Holman is a nice prospect, but he's a AA pitcher that should only be called up in an emergency. It seems reckless to throw him to the wolves now (if he's not ready).

    2. The gap between Leake and his replacement is greater than the gap between Fowler and the Reds current CF options. Someone touted Fowlers 350 OBP. Well, Schumaker was at 330 OBP last year. Over 600 at bats, that's only a difference of getting on base 12 times. That's maybe 2-3 runs over the course of the season (maybe someone can do the math better, that's just a guess). Hamiliton is probably not going to OBP 330 next year, but the gap between him and Fowler is not large enough to trade Leake.

    Fowler would've been a nice add, but not at the expense of Leake.
    A hole in the rotation costs you a lot of wins. I remember one horrible season, Reith/Bell/Reyes went something like 2-15 in the rotation trying to plug a hole in the rotation . We can't risk another disaster like that by planning on Chapman/Holman to replace Leake's 190 IP.

    Now if the Reds sign Arroyo or someone like him.. then by all means, Leake can be traded. But right now, Leake is critical.
    Last edited by REDREAD; 12-04-2013 at 10:37 AM.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

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  16. #55
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    Re: Dexter Fowler traded to Houston

    Interesting bit on the Fowler trade from FG. Here's a part I found particularly on point for what we're talking about:

    A league-average hitter who plays center field. Historically, Fowler has been well below-average by UZR, but here we encounter another, less famous Coors Field park effect. The Coors Field outfield is massive, greatly inflating hits on balls in play. That makes it more tricky to turn balls in play into outs, and though UZR does attempt to correct for this, Colorado makes everything difficult. It’s possible that UZR makes Fowler look worse than he is, that he can actually cover a decent amount of ground in a usual park. If you’re going to worry about how Fowler’s offense will look outside of Colorado, at least there’s some reason of hope for his defense to look all right.

    Even as just a decent hitter with passable center-field glovework, Fowler would do more good than bad. It wouldn’t take much for a healthy Fowler to be worth a couple wins, and he could be above-average without much more trouble. The league as a whole doesn’t seem to trust players that much coming out of Colorado, and teams are justified in believing that Coors Field is zany, but here the Astros believe in Fowler’s statistical potential, that he can remain at least a 2 WAR to 3 WAR player in a more normal environment. That’s a player with value that other teams would be more willing to trust.
    Again, I really don't have a problem with keeping Leake. I'm just saying that a Fowler for Leake deal would not necessarily be a "massive overpay."
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

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    Re: Dexter Fowler traded to Houston

    1. Chapman is not a starting pitcher. He's a reliever that might get transitioned into starting. This type of transition works sometimes, but we need to consider that it might also fail miserably. In 2014, Leake is a better starting pitcher than Chapman or Holman (the guy we just got from AZ). Holman is a nice prospect, but he's a AA pitcher that should only be called up in an emergency. It seems reckless to throw him to the wolves now (if he's not ready).
    I'm pretty confident that Chapman will at least be a competent #5 pitcher. Most teams would love to enter the season with a fivesome like the one I listed.

    2. The gap between Leake and his replacement is greater than the gap between Fowler and the Reds current CF options. Someone touted Fowlers 350 OBP. Well, Schumaker was at 330 OBP last year. Over 600 at bats, that's only a difference of getting on base 12 times. That's maybe 2-3 runs over the course of the season (maybe someone can do the math better, that's just a guess). Hamiliton is probably not going to OBP 330 next year, but the gap between him and Fowler is not large enough to trade Leake.
    That's only on the offensive side of the ball. Schumaker is a decent supersub, not a starting CF. I doubt WJ views him that way either.

    Fowler would've been a nice add, but not at the expense of Leake.
    A hole in the rotation costs you a lot of wins. I remember one horrible season, Reith/Bell/Reyes went something like 2-15 in the rotation trying to plug a hole in the rotation . We can't risk another disaster like that by planning on Chapman/Holman to replace Leake's 190 IP.
    I think all of the Reds current options are better than the Reith/Bell/Reyes trio.

    Now if the Reds sign Arroyo or someone like him.. then by all means, Leake can be traded. But right now, Leake is critical.
    Don't get me wrong, I think it is nice to have a six-deep starting staff. But to me, that is a luxury, and I fully believe that the FO should at least consider dealing from that strength to revamp one of the starting positions. It would be great if that upgrade could be at SS or CF. Fowler would have been an option -- though not the only one.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  19. #57
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    Re: Dexter Fowler traded to Houston

    Leake for Fowler would be a horrible trade for the Reds.

    Trade Leake if you must, but you'd get quite a bit more than 2 years of Fowler.

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  21. #58
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    Re: Dexter Fowler traded to Houston

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    Leake and Lamarre is a huge overpay for a .800 OPS CF? Those don't exactly grow on trees...
    2 things. He's not a 800 ops cf'er. Look at his home/away splits. He's also pretty subpar defensively. I'm not sure he's really a cf'er.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
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    Re: Dexter Fowler traded to Houston

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Leake is a year younger than Fowler, but has hit his peak and on the way down, while Folwer is about to hit his and on the way up?

    CF is a difficult position to play, but it's a piece of cake compared to being a starting pitcher.

    53 out 150 is far more valuable than 23 out of 30.
    I take issue with this. Firstly, it seems like you're stating this like a known fact. It's not. Secondly...where are you seeing this?!? What, from what you have seen, is telling you that Mike Leake has "peaked" and is trending downward from here on out? Personally, I don't think he's even come close to his peak yet. He's massively undervalued on Redszone IMO.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

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    Old school 1983 (12-04-2013)

  25. #60
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Dexter Fowler traded to Houston

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post

    but here the Astros believe in Fowlerís statistical potential, that he can remain at least a 2 WAR to 3 WAR player in a more normal environment. Thatís a player with value that other teams would be more willing to trust.

    Again, I really don't have a problem with keeping Leake. I'm just saying that a Fowler for Leake deal would not necessarily be a "massive overpay."
    But to put things in perspective, Drew Stubbs had a 1.9 WAR in 2011 (686 OPS). That's close to the 2-3 WAR they are predicting for Fowler.
    Not many people would trade Leake for that.
    Part of the entire problem of using WAR in any argument, IMO.

    Fowler also makes 7.3 million next year. I think that depressed his trade value. Kind of hard for the Reds to spend 7+ million on a complimentary player like Fowler, especially given his away splits. Now maybe he hits great in the GAB, but Leake is far too much to give up.
    I'm guessing Fowler is at most maybe a 1 -1.5 win improvement over what we can run out to CF now. Not worth the cost (trade and salary taken on).
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

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