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Thread: Dexter Fowler traded to Houston

  1. #61
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Dexter Fowler traded to Houston

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Leake for Fowler would be a horrible trade for the Reds.

    Trade Leake if you must, but you'd get quite a bit more than 2 years of Fowler.
    They only have 2 years of Leake. The money is nearly the same. The Reds have pitching. They only have 2 position players on the entire roster who are better than Fowler. I'm not even a huge Fowler fan, but the position player side is pretty bleak, there isn't anybody in the minors who looks like he'd help at any time before the All Star break (that includes Hamilton) and Leake is probably the one guy on the roster the Reds could backfill from within. If moving Chapman to the rotation leaves the pen too thin for your tastes, there are tons of relievers on the market who can provide quality innings. There will be guys with closing experience who may have to settle for what the Reds just gave Manny Parra.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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  4. #62
    post hype sleeper cincinnati chili's Avatar
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    Re: Dexter Fowler traded to Houston

    This is a punch in the gut. I watch the Reds and Rockies a lot. Fowler is the real deal. ASSUMING that it would have taken Mike Leake to get Fowler --- and I'm not sure that's true --- I'd still make the trade. I like Fowler a lot more than Leake. Leake is about as close to a league-average pitcher as you can get. Career ERA+ of 100; career WHIP over 1.3; doesn't strike a lot of guys out. Because he's cheap, being average is not an insult. It's useful. But I see nothing about him to suggest he's going to all of a sudden become a dominant pitcher.

    Home/road splits for Rockies' hitters have not proved to be a good predictor of future results on other teams. In 1996, Galarraga had an OPS home/road split of more than .400. He signed with Atlanta in 1998 and OPSed nearly 1.000. In 2007, when Matt Holliday was an MVP candidate for Colorado, he had an OPS split around .300. I think we'd all agree that he hasn't been a Coors mirage.

    Red Eye highlighted something I've been railing about for the past year or so. Don't trust defensive metrics with Coors Field outfielders. The square footage that Fowler has to cover is massive. The zone rating metrics don't properly account for this. He's a fine CF. Maybe better than fine.

    Bold predictions:
    Fowler will be better over the next two years than Jacoby Ellsbury at a fraction of the price;
    Fowler will have a better career than Mike Leake;
    Jordan Lyles will be a catastrophe in Coors;
    Dan O'Dowd will be fired in 2014.
    How, then, are those people of the future—who are taking steroids every day—going to look back on baseball players who used steroids? They're going to look back on them as pioneers. They're going to look back at it and say "So what?" - Bill James, Cooperstown and the 'Roids

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  6. #63
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    Re: Dexter Fowler traded to Houston

    Quote Originally Posted by cincinnati chili View Post
    This is a punch in the gut. I watch the Reds and Rockies a lot. Fowler is the real deal. ASSUMING that it would have taken Mike Leake to get Fowler --- and I'm not sure that's true --- I'd still make the trade. I like Fowler a lot more than Leake. Leake is about as close to a league-average pitcher as you can get. Career ERA+ of 100; career WHIP over 1.3; doesn't strike a lot of guys out. Because he's cheap, being average is not an insult. It's useful. But I see nothing about him to suggest he's going to all of a sudden become a dominant pitcher.

    Home/road splits for Rockies' hitters have not proved to be a good predictor of future results on other teams. In 1996, Galarraga had an OPS home/road split of more than .400. He signed with Atlanta in 1998 and OPSed nearly 1.000. In 2007, when Matt Holliday was an MVP candidate for Colorado, he had an OPS split around .300. I think we'd all agree that he hasn't been a Coors mirage.

    Red Eye highlighted something I've been railing about for the past year or so. Don't trust defensive metrics with Coors Field outfielders. The square footage that Fowler has to cover is massive. The zone rating metrics don't properly account for this. He's a fine CF. Maybe better than fine.

    Bold predictions:
    Fowler will be better over the next two years than Jacoby Ellsbury at a fraction of the price;
    Fowler will have a better career than Mike Leake;
    Jordan Lyles will be a catastrophe in Coors;
    Dan O'Dowd will be fired in 2014.
    An "average" pitcher who is dependable for 190+ IP a season is one of the most desired commodities in baseball. Look at the contracts Phil Hughes and Scott Kazmir just signed, and they are below average. Think of how valuable Bronson Arroyo has been to the Reds these years. He's just an average pitcher like Leake.

    I like Folwer as much as you and you make fine points about him, but you are greatly undervaluing Leake and all starting pitchers if you would rather have Fowler than Leake.
    "I don’t know the key to success, but the key to failure is trying to please everybody".
    —Bill Cosby

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    Re: Dexter Fowler traded to Houston

    Agree with mth and chili here. Not saying Fowler is the answer to all of our problems by any means, but I remember a lot of the same people on this board saying Matt Holliday was a Coors Field mirage and an average bat away from Coors a few years back when he was being shopped.

    Leake for Fowler is a deal I would've made. As Leake goes through arb, he will become significantly less valuable. I'd rather pay Fowler 2/3 of Leake's salary for the next two years and let him bridge CF/LF to Hamilton and Yorman/Winker.
    Go BLUE!!!

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    Re: Dexter Fowler traded to Houston

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Agree with mth and chili here. Not saying Fowler is the answer to all of our problems by any means, but I remember a lot of the same people on this board saying Matt Holliday was a Coors Field mirage and an average bat away from Coors a few years back when he was being shopped.

    Leake for Fowler is a deal I would've made. As Leake goes through arb, he will become significantly less valuable. I'd rather pay Fowler 2/3 of Leake's salary for the next two years and let him bridge CF/LF to Hamilton and Yorman/Winker.
    Holliday had a road OPS of .892 his last season at COL. That plays pretty much everywhere. Completely different players.

    Fowler is OPSing almost .200 points lower on road for career.

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    Re: Dexter Fowler traded to Houston

    Quote Originally Posted by RadfordVA View Post
    Holliday had a road OPS of .892 his last season at COL. That plays pretty much everywhere. Completely different players.

    Fowler is OPSing almost .200 points lower on road for career.
    That's fine- they are different players obviously.

    But go back and read the threads on here about Holliday when he was being shopped by Colorado. A lot of haters thought he was a Coors Field mirage. Sometimes a good player is actually, you know, a good player. Even if he plays his home games in Coors.

    That said, I do expect to see a regression in Fowler's numbers now that he's out of Coors. But IMO he still would be a better bet than Ludwick or whoever we plan on playing CF.
    Last edited by Benihana; 12-05-2013 at 08:57 AM.
    Go BLUE!!!

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    Re: Dexter Fowler traded to Houston

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    That's fine- they are different players obviously.

    But go back and read the threads on here about Holliday when he was being shopped by Colorado. A lot of haters thought he was a Coors Field mirage. Sometimes a good player is actually, you know, a good player. Even if he plays his home games in Coors.

    That said, I do expect to see a regression in Fowler's numbers now that he's out of Coors. But IMO he still would be a better bet than Ludwick or whoever we plan on playing CF.
    Here is one such thread for trip down memory lane. http://www.redszone.com/forums/showt...traded+rockies

    I think most people realized he was still going to be fairly productive outside Coors just not superhuman. The thing with Fowler if he produces like his road splits he is replacement level. Holliday at road levels was still a really good player to have. Seems like a lot of teams did not like Fowler's chances for above replacement level by the return.

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    Re: Dexter Fowler traded to Houston

    Votto, Bailey and others for Holliday. Boy, that would have set the franchise back some.

  15. #69
    Battle Toad Historian thatcoolguy_22's Avatar
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    Re: Dexter Fowler traded to Houston

    Your relatively neutral reaction to the Dexter Fowler is the most positive I've seen from a Rockies' perspective. Is the rest of the world overrating an injury prone player with pronounced platoon splits or could you be undervaluing a true CF with a BABIP inflated .365 OBP?

    Klaw (12:37 PM)


    True CF who's consistently played CF at a below-average level in the majors. I think the non-MLB world is overrating him, but within the industry - again, I asked around after the deal - there was surprisingly little interest in him at that salary.
    Keith Law on the Fowler trade.
    "Last week I helped my friend stay put. It's a lot easier'n helpin' 'em move. I just went over to his house and made sure that he did not start to load **** into a truck."

  16. #70
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Dexter Fowler traded to Houston

    Take this FWIW, but I have it from a reliable source that Fowler is also a really good guy, a good teammate, and easy to coach. Not that this necessarily makes a difference in his value as we are discussing it, but rest assured that if Law is right that "within the industry" there isn't much interest in Fowler, it is not because he is perceived as a difficult personality.
    "I’ll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. That’s just how I do things.” -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  17. #71
    A Dude in the Bushes RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: Dexter Fowler traded to Houston

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    That's fine- they are different players obviously.

    But go back and read the threads on here about Holliday when he was being shopped by Colorado. A lot of haters thought he was a Coors Field mirage. Sometimes a good player is actually, you know, a good player. Even if he plays his home games in Coors.

    That said, I do expect to see a regression in Fowler's numbers now that he's out of Coors. But IMO he still would be a better bet than Ludwick or whoever we plan on playing CF.
    You wanted to trade Votto for Holliday straight up -

    oh man, then added this doozie:

    Arroyo, Votto, Bailey, and Thompson. Pick any two and add a Dorn, Cumberland, or Henry. Done and done.

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    Re: Dexter Fowler traded to Houston

    Quote Originally Posted by thatcoolguy_22 View Post
    Keith Law on the Fowler trade.
    Okay, that changed my mind. If Keith Law isn't a big fan of Fowler, I think he's worth trading Leake for
    "I don’t know the key to success, but the key to failure is trying to please everybody".
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  20. #73
    post hype sleeper cincinnati chili's Avatar
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    Re: Dexter Fowler traded to Houston

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    An "average" pitcher who is dependable for 190+ IP a season is one of the most desired commodities in baseball. Look at the contracts Phil Hughes and Scott Kazmir just signed, and they are below average. Think of how valuable Bronson Arroyo has been to the Reds these years. He's just an average pitcher like Leake.

    I like Folwer as much as you and you make fine points about him, but you are greatly undervaluing Leake and all starting pitchers if you would rather have Fowler than Leake.
    With respect to the part I bolded, I would ask "but should they be?" You have a point that a pitcher who can give you 190 innings at an ERA+ of 100 has some value because that's 190 innings that pitchers closer to replacement level won't be pitching.

    But I don't think average pitchers should be valued more than significantly-better-than-average offensive players. Think of it this way - Leake pitched roughly 13% of the Reds' innings in 2013. An everyday player who stays healthy and bats at the top of the lineup (say, Choo in 2013) will get roughly 11% of his team's total plate appearances for the season. That's not enough of a difference to suggest that an average pitcher throwing 190 innings should get some artificial bump in value over the good position player - especially if the position player can also help you defensively.

    Let me be clear about one thing. Mike Leake's results in 2013 were more valuable than Fowler's. So if the Reds believe Leake is going to continue to post a 3.37 ERA while eating up 190 innings, then I don't blame them for valuing him more than guys they think are substantially-better-than-average offensive players. I just don't see the evidence in Leake's peripherals to suggest that Leake's 2013 is what we can expect going forward
    How, then, are those people of the future—who are taking steroids every day—going to look back on baseball players who used steroids? They're going to look back on them as pioneers. They're going to look back at it and say "So what?" - Bill James, Cooperstown and the 'Roids

  21. #74
    All Fired Up Revering4Blue's Avatar
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    Re: Dexter Fowler traded to Houston

    Jordan Lyles will be a catastrophe in Coors;
    Dan O'Dowd will be fired in 2014.
    I'm surprised that O'Dowd, who was GM way back when Bowden was the Red's GM, still has a job.


    That's the crux of the issue for me. Even throwing other potential destinations out of the equation, it's hard for me to believe that O'Dowd couldn't do better than what he ultimately received for Fowler, especially considering the prospects within the Astros' organization.

    As opposed to last off-season, the time was finally right for the Astros to make a move to bolster their MLB roster and, IMO, they made out like bandits. Sure, they could have signed someone like Lance Berkman before last season as a cosmetic move, as many were clamoring for them to do, but they likely still would have fallen short of winning 60 games. It would have been akin to setting 10 million dollars on fire. Hot Dogs and S'mores, anyone?
    "I have just been more than a little suspect of all the trades since the Willy (Scott Williamson) cash grab. That one left such a bad taste in my mouth that even a 1985 Dom Pérignon couldn't cleanse it." -- Creek14

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    Re: Dexter Fowler traded to Houston

    Quote Originally Posted by cincinnati chili View Post
    With respect to the part I bolded, I would ask "but should they be?" You have a point that a pitcher who can give you 190 innings at an ERA+ of 100 has some value because that's 190 innings that pitchers closer to replacement level won't be pitching.

    But I don't think average pitchers should be valued more than significantly-better-than-average offensive players. Think of it this way - Leake pitched roughly 13% of the Reds' innings in 2013. An everyday player who stays healthy and bats at the top of the lineup (say, Choo in 2013) will get roughly 11% of his team's total plate appearances for the season. That's not enough of a difference to suggest that an average pitcher throwing 190 innings should get some artificial bump in value over the good position player - especially if the position player can also help you defensively.

    Let me be clear about one thing. Mike Leake's results in 2013 were more valuable than Fowler's. So if the Reds believe Leake is going to continue to post a 3.37 ERA while eating up 190 innings, then I don't blame them for valuing him more than guys they think are substantially-better-than-average offensive players. I just don't see the evidence in Leake's peripherals to suggest that Leake's 2013 is what we can expect going forward
    Supply and demand.

    Last year there were 49 pitchers who pitched 190 innings, with any ERA. There are 150 starting rotation spots that MLB teams need to fill.

    Last year there were 25 CF who were 2 win players (Fowler was a 2.2 win player). There are 30 starting CF spots that MLB teams need to fill.
    "I don’t know the key to success, but the key to failure is trying to please everybody".
    —Bill Cosby


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