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Thread: Ellsbury to the Yankees

  1. #31
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Ellsbury to the Yankees

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I would assume the New York Yankees are big fans of repeating history.
    Why? Was it not dishing out obscene amounts of money for guys with age or injury issues that got them into a financial bind last season in the first place? Have they not struggled the last couple of seasons because of that?

    This contract is going to end very badly for them.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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  3. #32
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    Re: Ellsbury to the Yankees

    Is it me or are hitters getting all the money? Post-steroidal bat-envy?
    The widow is gathering nettles for her children's dinner; a perfumed seigneur, delicately lounging in the Oeil de Boeuf, hath an alchemy whereby he will extract the third nettle and call it rent. ~ Carlyle

  4. #33
    Member Wonderful Monds's Avatar
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    Re: Ellsbury to the Yankees

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo View Post
    Is it me or are hitters getting all the money? Post-steroidal bat-envy?
    Hitting is the new pitching.
    They don't think it be like it is, but it do.
    Quote Originally Posted by Larry Schuler View Post
    He has also taught me that even when the Reds win it is important to focus on the fact that they could have lost.

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  6. #34
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Ellsbury to the Yankees

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    Why? Was it not dishing out obscene amounts of money for guys with age or injury issues that got them into a financial bind last season in the first place? Have they not struggled the last couple of seasons because of that?

    This contract is going to end very badly for them.
    I don't like this contract. I even posted back in the summer that Ellsbury was going to become one of the most egregiously overpaid players in the game. He's wildly overrated.

    However, the Yankees won their division three of the previous four seasons and had 95 wins and a wild card the other season. It was not a financial bind that got them last season, it was a freakish number of injuries.

    The Yankees do not have money problems and will not have money problems in the future. The only sort of money problem they have is they might not be able to buy the quality they need at this point in time, largely because it's not on the market. The Yankees go out and pay top dollar for what they need and they've won more of everything than any other team in the sport. They climbed to the top of the heap in the 1920s because Jake Ruppert bought the core of the Red Sox championship teams. They spend money. They win.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  7. #35
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    Re: Ellsbury to the Yankees

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    It was not a financial bind that got them last season, it was a freakish number of injuries.
    Are they freakish if your team's ancient?

    The Yanks are wading ever closer to dumb 80's spending.
    The widow is gathering nettles for her children's dinner; a perfumed seigneur, delicately lounging in the Oeil de Boeuf, hath an alchemy whereby he will extract the third nettle and call it rent. ~ Carlyle

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  9. #36
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    Re: Ellsbury to the Yankees

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I don't like this contract. I even posted back in the summer that Ellsbury was going to become one of the most egregiously overpaid players in the game. He's wildly overrated.

    However, the Yankees won their division three of the previous four seasons and had 95 wins and a wild card the other season. It was not a financial bind that got them last season, it was a freakish number of injuries.

    The Yankees do not have money problems and will not have money problems in the future. The only sort of money problem they have is they might not be able to buy the quality they need at this point in time, largely because it's not on the market. The Yankees go out and pay top dollar for what they need and they've won more of everything than any other team in the sport. They climbed to the top of the heap in the 1920s because Jake Ruppert bought the core of the Red Sox championship teams. They spend money. They win.
    The Yankees have a checkered past when it comes to trying to buy a championship. It worked recently, and when free agency first started in the late '70's. But it also backfired a few times on them. Then went though some big dry spells as a result of ignoring the farm system and just buying free agents.

    There greatest run in last 50 years came in the '90's when they stopped buying players, and started to develop a real farm system. They developed Jeter, Rivera, Posada, Pettitte, Williams and a bunch of great role players. Their big acquisitions early on were role players like O'Neil and Brosius. That's what has made them the powerhouse they have been for the past 15+ years.
    "I don’t know the key to success, but the key to failure is trying to please everybody".
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    Re: Ellsbury to the Yankees

    The Yankees have offered contracts of unknown value to Omar Infante, Jacoby Ellsbury, Shin-Soo Choo, and Carlos Beltran.
    Sources told Yahoo Sports the Yankees will continue to pursue the other pricey outfield client of agent Scott Boras, Shin-Soo Choo, along with the top free agent on the market and their best player last year, second baseman Robinson Cano.
    Shin-Soo Choo is viewed by some evaluators to be a better target than Ellsbury, given Choo's superior durability and on-base ability. Maybe the Yankees will decide they want both. The market for Choo is bound to get intense now that Ellsbury is off the board, and the Rangers, in trading Craig Gentry, and the Tigers, in dealing Prince Fielder and Doug Fister, have freed up either the space or the money to chase Choo. But the Yanks could still be players.

  12. #38
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    Re: Ellsbury to the Yankees

    The only thing that really bugs me about this is that the Yankees get to go on this giant spending spree and will still be able to get under the luxury tax limit and reset their tax rate because of A-Rod's suspension.
    "Reality tells us there are no guarantees. Except that some day Jon Lester will be on that list of 100-game winners." - Peter Gammons

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  14. #39
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    Re: Ellsbury to the Yankees

    Quote Originally Posted by WildcatFan View Post
    I really don't like where these contracts are going. This has probably been discussed ad nauseum, but when do you have to call for a salary cap? Contracts are rising MUCH faster than inflation, which is reflected in cost of attending a game. In 10 years, it seems Joey Votto's contract will look more like the median than the superstar salary.
    You really think any savings owners receive from a salary cap are going to go back to the fan?
    The Rally Onion wants 150 fans before Opening Day.

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    Re: Ellsbury to the Yankees

    This deal is silly.

    However, people in Africa think it's silly that Americans would pay $50 for a T-Shirt.

    Unfortunately, this situation isn't all that different.
    Go BLUE!!!

  16. #41
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    Re: Ellsbury to the Yankees

    The first two things I thought of when I read about this deal last night were 1. is Ellsbury going to stay healthy for that long? and 2. how the heck is Red Sox nation going to take that news?! They didn't handle it well when Damon did the same thing in 2004 so this one is probably not going to go over well either. I guess I'll find out first hand soon. I'm going to Boston in January for the US Figure Skating Championships and will be there for a week. *braces self*
    "I tried to play golf, but I found out I wasn't very good." -Joey Votto on his offseason hobby search

    An MLB.com reporter asked what one thing Votto couldn’t do. “I can’t skate or play hockey,” Votto said. “Well, I can skate ... but I can’t stop.”

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    Re: Ellsbury to the Yankees

    While we've enjoyed a nice few years of reprieve from big markets dominating the little markets, I fear with the new Dodgers regime and the Yankees behavior this offseason, we may soon be falling back into that trend from the last decade.
    Go BLUE!!!

  18. #43
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    Re: Ellsbury to the Yankees

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    This deal is silly.

    However, people in Africa think it's silly that Americans would pay $50 for a T-Shirt.

    Unfortunately, this situation isn't all that different.
    I think it's silly that Americans would pay $50 for a T-shirt.
    "This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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  20. #44
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    Re: Ellsbury to the Yankees

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    While we've enjoyed a nice few years of reprieve from big markets dominating the little markets, I fear with the new Dodgers regime and the Yankees behavior this offseason, we may soon be falling back into that trend from the last decade.
    I would not worry about it too much. Mostly whatever gets to Free Agency these days are spare parts and players with flaws that scared off original team wanting to spend that much on them. Teams in nearly every market are capable of locking up their talent early on if they are inclined to. So I find it very unlikely that a championship team is going to be built through out bidding teams on open market. It actually has never worked out that way. Yankees were most successful when their homegrown players were in their prime. Not when they got the Texieras and Arods of the world. Same for Boston with Crawford and AGon.

    2015 Free Agent class is so weak it will be highlighted by everyday players like Hanley Ramirez and Chase Headley.

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    Re: Ellsbury to the Yankees

    http://mlb.si.com/2013/11/20/what-is...coby-ellsbury/

    Given those assumptions, here’s what Ellsbury’s next seven years might look like. I’ve chosen the seven-year figure because recent years have seen top-of-the-market outfielders such as Matt Holliday, Jayson Werth and Carl Crawford sign pacts of such length at more or less similar ages (dollar figures below are in millions):


    Ellsbury’s year-to-year decline in WAR looks steep, but as the cost per win rises, the value of his production is actually reasonably stable, dropping by “only” $1.5-2 million per year over this range. Via this estimate, Ellsbury is expected to produce 20.2 WAR over the next seven seasons, which would have a market value of $126.3 million, a figure almost on the nose for Werth’s existing seven-year, $126 million deal with the Nationals. Did I mention that Werth and Ellsbury are both Scott Boras clients?

    Suppose we cut out Ellsbury’s troublesome fourth year and stick to a 5/4/3 weighting pattern, but a steeper aging curve whereby he loses 0.5 WAR per year instead of 0.4. That yields a 2014 value of 4.8 WAR, a six-year total of 22.9 WAR and a market value of $143.3 million. If we boost the cost per win to $6 million with the same rate of inflation, that figure skyrockets to $163 million. If we leave the cost per win as is but assume a gentle three percent inflation, the market value figure is still $133.9 million. If we go back to the four-year model and apply those same assumptions (steep decline, three percent inflation), we still get $104.9 million over the next seven years.
    Keep in mind that any dollar value we throw on a win — $5.3 million or $6 million or whatever — is an average that suggests the additional value for each win is the same for the Astros as for the Yankees, when in fact that’s untrue. For a contending team, each additional win exponentially increases its chances of reaching the playoffs, which would thus allow it to tap into an additional revenue stream. Therefore a $150 million deal that produces $125 million of “actual” value would not only be within the expected range of variance but would be more justifiable for contender such as the Rangers than a cellar-dwellar such as the Mariners.


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