What if Votto had left for Free Agency?

[kaldaniels]

Simple hypothetical here, just go with it.

Pretend the Reds didn't extend Votto, and simply rode out his arbitration years until he left this offseason. Where would things stand right now?

I'm struggling to find a way (despite knowing Votto is only "worth" 5-6 wins a year, probably) that I would see the Reds as a competitive club right now. The only thing I could come up with is that they would have had the money to extend/resign Choo if they so chose, but who knows what the numbers on the deal would be.

I'm not very imaginative with things, so I look forward to reading where you guys think things would be right now.

[MrRedLegger]

If we never signed Votto long term, it seems like he would have been traded rather than Yonder Alonso, and for something big.

[kaldaniels]

If we never signed Votto long term, it seems like he would have been traded rather than Yonder Alonso, and for something big.

Thanks for not playing.

[MrRedLegger]

I realized upon posting that it didn't fit the hypothetical of the OP. But thanks for calling me out, I'll play. (Didn't meat to put your idea down!)

At this point we'd have two monster FA's in Choo and Votto. There'd be a rift in ideologies to sign one or the other, or potentially, both. However, I think that because Choo batted leadoff, his presence on the team would virtually seem more important. I think Choo would be given what it took to keep him and the FO would do their best with Votto, letting him walk if they had to. However, I'd be on the keep Votto side.

[paulrichjr]

I don't think he would have signed a "richer" contract then he did with the Reds.

[757690]

I don't think he would have signed a "richer" contract then he did with the Reds.

I think you're right. He would have signed for something similar to Cano, which is about what he got. Maybe a bit more expensive, but something very similar.

[bigredmechanism]

I think you're right. He would have signed for something similar to Cano, which is about what he got. Maybe a bit more expensive, but something very similar.

I'm not sure about that. After the injury in 2012 and the down year in 2013 as far as power is concerned, I just can't see him getting the kind of scratch Cano just got. JV really signed long-term at a very good time, as far as his own benefit is concerned.

[757690]

I'm not sure about that. After the injury in 2012 and the down year in 2013 as far as power is concerned, I just can't see him getting the kind of scratch Cano just got. JV really signed long-term at a very good time, as far as his own benefit is concerned.

His power was down, but his production was the same. If anything, I think last year helped Votto's value. It showed that even when his skills aren't the same, he's smart enough and talented enough to make adjustments and still be one of the best hitters in baseball.

[bigredmechanism]

His power was down, but his production was the same. If anything, I think last year helped Votto's value. It showed that even when his skills aren't the same, he's smart enough and talented enough to make adjustments and still be one of the best hitters in baseball.

I don't see how his production was the same. His stats are down in pretty much all categories since hurting his knee.

I agree that he is still very talented, and his down year is still better than most players regular year, but it seems like that opinion is based in Reds bias more than numbers.

[Captain Hook]

I don't see how his production was the same. His stats are down in pretty much all categories since hurting his knee.

I agree that he is still very talented, and his down year is still better than most players regular year, but it seems like that opinion is based in Reds bias more than numbers.

I know you're trying to give him some credit for what he did last year but that's really a huge understatement. As far as Votto vs Cano, Joey is a year younger than Cano and was almost two years younger when he signed the extension. Stats aren't really that much different. Robinson's hits for a little more power and Votto gets on base better than anyone. As far as the Reds go I think it's safe to say that even with Joey being a year older now and coming off a season where his numbers were a little down that he'd get something close to what he got last year.

[klw]

Had Votto not signed the extension he would have been part of the great Reds Twins Cardinals Rangers four way deal of late 2012. Votto would have ended up in Texas with the Reds receiving Sano, Buxton, Profar, M Carpenter, Oscar Tavares, Carlos Martinez, and Martin Perez. Votto would have hit free agency after spending the past year pining for Cincinnati and good Chilli. He would have signed a 3 year 15 million dollar contract with the Reds holding team options for the 2017-2030 season at 5 mil per year. The move however would cost the Reds their first draft pick this season and Logan Ondrusek who was shipped to St. L as part of the deal.

[bigredmechanism]

I know you're trying to give him some credit for what he did last year but that's really a huge understatement. As far as Votto vs Cano, Joey is a year younger than Cano and was almost two years younger when he signed the extension. Stats aren't really that much different. Robinson's hits for a little more power and Votto gets on base better than anyone. As far as the Reds go I think it's safe to say that even with Joey being a year older now and coming off a season where his numbers were a little down that he'd get something close to what he got last year.

You're probably right. I'm not trying to say Cano > Votto, more that these contracts seem way overpriced to me. Perhaps in a few years (at the rate free agents/extensions are going) JV's contract will look like a bargain.

Up until this season, where I took on a very demanding job, I had watched (almost) every Reds game for the past few seasons. Quite a feat for someone from New Jersey. I fully appreciate Joey Votto and how good he is at baseball, and am not trying to diminish that. Still, what I watched this past year, along with the box scores I would check religiously, Votto had a down year.

[Captain Hook]

You're probably right. I'm not trying to say Cano > Votto, more that these contracts seem way overpriced to me. Perhaps in a few years (at the rate free agents/extensions are going) JV's contract will look like a bargain.

Up until this season, where I took on a very demanding job, I had watched (almost) every Reds game for the past few seasons. Quite a feat for someone from New Jersey. I fully appreciate Joey Votto and how good he is at baseball, and am not trying to diminish that. Still, what I watched this past year, along with the box scores I would check religiously, Votto had a down year.

I don't know if the deal Votto got will ever be looked at as a bargain but I do think he got about what the going rate would've been all things being equal. Now if the Reds hadn't locked him up last year and he went on to lead the Reds deep into the playoffs after having a slightly better regular season in 2013 Votto's free agent contract would've likely broken records and he wouldn't be playing in Cincinnati.

[kaldaniels]

Had Votto not signed the extension he would have been part of the great Reds Twins Cardinals Rangers four way deal of late 2012. Votto would have ended up in Texas with the Reds receiving Sano, Buxton, Profar, M Carpenter, Oscar Tavares, Carlos Martinez, and Martin Perez. Votto would have hit free agency after spending the past year pining for Cincinnati and good Chilli. He would have signed a 3 year 15 million dollar contract with the Reds holding team options for the 2017-2030 season at 5 mil per year. The move however would cost the Reds their first draft pick this season and Logan Ondrusek who was shipped to St. L as part of the deal.

Now that's what I'm talking about!

[OGB]

I love Votto, but the organization may have been better suited for 2015 and beyond had they gotten a package of prospects--preferably heavy on the left side of the IF--and put that money towards 2/3 of (Cueto/Bailey/Latos) and also Bruce.
I don't necessarily mean extending anyone at the time the Votto contract got done, just eventually.
Then I'd see Winker getting fast-tracked as the new 1B. Hopefully, Winker, Ervin, Cingrani, Stephenson, BHam, and one or more of the IF prospects from the Votto deal would be ready in 2015 with Bruce, Mes, Phillips, and the extended SPs and a strong bullpen there to form a championship base.