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Thread: Just too many holes to fill.

  1. #16
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    Re: Just too many holes to fill.

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Fan View Post
    I guess it depends on what you value more. Winnig the WS is nice, but does it mean you were the best team throughout the entire season or just got "hot" at the right time?
    yet the same teams seem to be the ones who "get hot" at the right time.

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  3. #17
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    Re: Just too many holes to fill.

    My goal is the WS. Anything else falls short of what I expect. Call me spoiled.

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    CoachBombay (12-18-2013)

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    Re: Just too many holes to fill.

    I think there's something to be said for building a team around 3 starting pitchers and a solid lineup. Think the reds are a few prices away from this, butay have to settle for 2 very good pitchers if Bailey gets traded (think game 3 NLDS 2012). Totally understand trading bailey (or resigning). I think the choice is his, not the Reds. I'm sure they are throwing out a great offer to him.

    Also understand trading chapman if he doesn't want to start. Those 2 guys, w Phillips can demand a good return. I think this would be a solid version of "rebuilding", possibly getting younger, cleaning up the clubhouse and perhaps constructing a more consistent lineup.
    Pete Rose will be leaving the Montreal Expos to become player - manager for the Cincinnati Reds

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    Re: Just too many holes to fill.

    And the sky is not falling!
    Pete Rose will be leaving the Montreal Expos to become player - manager for the Cincinnati Reds

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    markymark69 (12-17-2013)

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    Re: Just too many holes to fill.

    Quote Originally Posted by bullseye View Post
    The 2014 Reds, as we stand here today, are still an offensively challenged team with 4 starting pitches who have question marks.

    The 2013 Reds scored the 3rd most runs of any team in the NL. The 2014 team will have a downgrade in CF, but hopefully a little bounce over 2013 @ 3B, LF and Catcher will offset that a little bit. (Remember, Mesoraco has only 538 career MLB ab's, he should get better) While BP is on the decline due to age, didn't he have a wrist/hand injury last year? A healthy (and likely pissed off) BP this year will do a little better than last year, but probably not as good as 2 years ago.

    If Hamilton can get on base 25% of the time, and steal a base 75% of the time he is on, he will be quite a valuable player, even if his .OBP blows.

    Ludwick, well could the Reds get any worse production out of LF than they got last year? Not likely-- expect a slight improvement out of hitting there.

    Sure, the 2014 Reds lose the production of Choo, but the Reds aren't exactly filled with a ton of 33 year old hitters who are on the decline. Half the starting position players are between 25-28. Votto is 30 and he should still be decent. CF is still to be determined.

    The Reds two old players, BP and Ludwick had very poor years. It's not unreasonable to expect that their performance next year are better than 2013, but still worse than 2012.

    Long term-- yes, the Reds will need a new middle infield, 3B and an OF. This is due to a.) players get more expensive and the Reds will have to keep replacing their non core players with cheaper options, and b.) well the players the Reds have in those positions aren't that great to begin with. Unfortunately the Reds are lacking good young IF's in their farm system.

    With a few breaks, the 2014 team could outscore the 2013 team. With a few unlucky breaks, (ie injuries to Votto and Bruce) it could be ugly. But you could say that for any team who has injuries to their 2 best hitters.

    That said, the 2014 pitching staff could be better than 2013. Cueto could pitch a full season. Homer is pitching for a huge FA contract-- you could see him improving his #'s. Latos is improving and you can expect #'s similar to last year. Leake-- well if he pitches as well as last year, I'll be a bit surprised. Cingrani-- he could take a little step backwards as a sophomore slump. All in all-- even if Leake and Cingrani take a small step back (and it's possible they stay the same or improve a bit) the Reds should be able to mitigate that with improved performances from Cueto and Bailey.

    All you can ask is to have a solid team on paper. The Reds are very solid on SP, and their bullpen is very good. Hitting? Well they shouldn't be too much different to where they were last year. Ugly to watch @ times, but can still score some runs.

    Yes, it would be nice if the Reds had a uber cheap option in LF, but Reds nation will have to suck it up for 18 months until hopefully Phillip Ervin is ready for a late 2015 callup. (fingers crossed he and Winker dominate AA pitching next year.) The Reds don't want to trade for a LF with a long term contract who will block their prospects.

    Yes it would be nice if the Reds got a little more production out of the left side of their infield-- but Frazier is 27 and Cozart is 28 years old. Maybe they can crank out their "career" year this season or next. They are cheap options so I'm fine with them for 2-3 more years.

    The Reds are ok hitting wise next year-- but if this was 2016, and they fielded the same lineup, I would be worried. That lineup would be pretty old and expensive. (Votto, BP and Bruce all on decent contracts with Votto and BP on the decline with big salaries)

    But as is the Reds will be pretty solid in 2014. But yes, Walt needs to really plan ahead now for 2016 and beyond if the Reds want to be competitive for 2016-2021. The Reds may have a tremendous amount of $'s tied to Votto, Bruce, Latos and Cueto during that time. ( In theory assuming he is able to sign Bruce, Latos and Cueto long term.) It will take a strong farm system full of cheap young talent to fill out the Reds lineup to stay competitive. Well that or the Reds having a $175mm payroll which I don't imagine will happen.

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    Old school 1983 (12-18-2013)

  10. #21
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Just too many holes to fill.

    Hope is eternal...

    ...but it's not a plan of action.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Reds&BuckeyeGuy (12-19-2013), Revering4Blue (12-19-2013)

  12. #22
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    Re: Just too many holes to fill.

    If Lutz wasn't a lefty he could be a future left fielder that could eventually move to first when Votto is done. I've seen experts say that Lutz could be on the move, as he should be a top 10 first baseman in the MLB in the next two years. The Reds just seem to be stocked with lefty hitters which is actually quite rare.

  13. #23
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    Re: Just too many holes to fill.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ladeda View Post
    The 2013 Reds scored the 3rd most runs of any team in the NL. The 2014 team will have a downgrade in CF, but hopefully a little bounce over 2013 @ 3B, LF and Catcher will offset that a little bit. (Remember, Mesoraco has only 538 career MLB ab's, he should get better) While BP is on the decline due to age, didn't he have a wrist/hand injury last year? A healthy (and likely pissed off) BP this year will do a little better than last year, but probably not as good as 2 years ago.

    If Hamilton can get on base 25% of the time, and steal a base 75% of the time he is on, he will be quite a valuable player, even if his .OBP blows.

    Ludwick, well could the Reds get any worse production out of LF than they got last year? Not likely-- expect a slight improvement out of hitting there.

    Sure, the 2014 Reds lose the production of Choo, but the Reds aren't exactly filled with a ton of 33 year old hitters who are on the decline. Half the starting position players are between 25-28. Votto is 30 and he should still be decent. CF is still to be determined.

    The Reds two old players, BP and Ludwick had very poor years. It's not unreasonable to expect that their performance next year are better than 2013, but still worse than 2012.

    Long term-- yes, the Reds will need a new middle infield, 3B and an OF. This is due to a.) players get more expensive and the Reds will have to keep replacing their non core players with cheaper options, and b.) well the players the Reds have in those positions aren't that great to begin with. Unfortunately the Reds are lacking good young IF's in their farm system.

    With a few breaks, the 2014 team could outscore the 2013 team. With a few unlucky breaks, (ie injuries to Votto and Bruce) it could be ugly. But you could say that for any team who has injuries to their 2 best hitters.

    That said, the 2014 pitching staff could be better than 2013. Cueto could pitch a full season. Homer is pitching for a huge FA contract-- you could see him improving his #'s. Latos is improving and you can expect #'s similar to last year. Leake-- well if he pitches as well as last year, I'll be a bit surprised. Cingrani-- he could take a little step backwards as a sophomore slump. All in all-- even if Leake and Cingrani take a small step back (and it's possible they stay the same or improve a bit) the Reds should be able to mitigate that with improved performances from Cueto and Bailey.

    All you can ask is to have a solid team on paper. The Reds are very solid on SP, and their bullpen is very good. Hitting? Well they shouldn't be too much different to where they were last year. Ugly to watch @ times, but can still score some runs.

    Yes, it would be nice if the Reds had a uber cheap option in LF, but Reds nation will have to suck it up for 18 months until hopefully Phillip Ervin is ready for a late 2015 callup. (fingers crossed he and Winker dominate AA pitching next year.) The Reds don't want to trade for a LF with a long term contract who will block their prospects.

    Yes it would be nice if the Reds got a little more production out of the left side of their infield-- but Frazier is 27 and Cozart is 28 years old. Maybe they can crank out their "career" year this season or next. They are cheap options so I'm fine with them for 2-3 more years.

    The Reds are ok hitting wise next year-- but if this was 2016, and they fielded the same lineup, I would be worried. That lineup would be pretty old and expensive. (Votto, BP and Bruce all on decent contracts with Votto and BP on the decline with big salaries)

    But as is the Reds will be pretty solid in 2014. But yes, Walt needs to really plan ahead now for 2016 and beyond if the Reds want to be competitive for 2016-2021. The Reds may have a tremendous amount of $'s tied to Votto, Bruce, Latos and Cueto during that time. ( In theory assuming he is able to sign Bruce, Latos and Cueto long term.) It will take a strong farm system full of cheap young talent to fill out the Reds lineup to stay competitive. Well that or the Reds having a $175mm payroll which I don't imagine will happen.
    The Reds put up a ton of numbers against bad pitching. Take a look at our numbers against opponents top 3 pitchers and you will be amazed at how bad we were.

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    Old school 1983 (12-18-2013), Reds&BuckeyeGuy (12-19-2013)

  15. #24
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    Re: Just too many holes to fill.

    Quote Originally Posted by Lewdog View Post
    If Lutz wasn't a lefty he could be a future left fielder that could eventually move to first when Votto is done. I've seen experts say that Lutz could be on the move, as he should be a top 10 first baseman in the MLB in the next two years. The Reds just seem to be stocked with lefty hitters which is actually quite rare.
    Votto, Bruce then who?

    Winker??
    Lutz??

    Can't have too many LH hitters in my book. Most pitchers are right handed.

    There are a lot of Ho Hum RH Hitters who are strong against LHP. Johnny Gomes, Drew Stubbbs, Todd Frazier and even Mesoraco, who was awful last year, did well against LHP. It would be nice to have one big RH bat in the middle of it all, but the Reds have plenty of guys to make lefty starters pay for trying to neutralize Votto and Bruce. Phillip Ervin will be the man and sooner than everyone thinks IMO. Give me more good lefty bats to beat-up on the 70% of the pitchers who throw right handed and I'll take my chances.

    Also, the opinion of Lutz is way off. He's a horrible 1B but is quite agile in LF. He won't be an All Start IO, but he'll be a decent platoon OF along the lines of Matt Stairs with better defense. That will by just fine on a major league bench. He needs another year or so getting PAs in AAA though.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  16. #25
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    Re: Just too many holes to fill.

    Quote Originally Posted by bullseye View Post
    The Reds put up a ton of numbers against bad pitching. Take a look at our numbers against opponents top 3 pitchers and you will be amazed at how bad we were.
    i noticed this also. The Reds seemed to have the ability to score 10 runs, then barely score a run a game for the next week.

    This team, imho, does not have a core of players that can win the World Series. We need a few players who are not afraid to put the ball in play. We have a few players who seem to fold when pressure arises.

    As Jocketty found out, this team is more than a couple of players away from being real players for the Series. Give him credit he filled the holes he saw last year, but should have looked at the Giants series a little closer.

  17. #26
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    Re: Just too many holes to fill.

    Quote Originally Posted by Scotly View Post
    We need a few players who are not afraid to put the ball in play.
    I just don't see the "good itching" vs. "bad" pitching connection. Not in any way that is worse than any other team facing an ace pitcher. The team was inconsistent scoring at times because of their dearth of OBP type hitters after Choo and Votto. Even Bruce, who is dangerous, isn't an OBP guy. He makes lot of outs to go with his power. Not to an extreme but it's the part of his game that keeps him from the very top tier of hitters. Mez, Cozie, Frazier, Heisey - all of them are aggressive free swingers with low OBP. If your lineup is power laden but has lowish to really bad OBP hitters in 7 spots, a boom and bust offense seems likely. Just too many outs in too many spots. And with the exception of Bruce and BP, none of them have the kind of power that compensates for their low on base numbers. That's 5 hitters who can be counted on to make a lot of outs, two who still make a lot of outs but can hit, and two who get on base regularly as clockwork. Take out Votto and Choo and the percentage of "safeties" to outs is way too low. As to pitching, I'd rather them face a hard throwing ace than an offspeed junkballer. A guy like Arroyo just eats them alive.
    No - I am not from State Farm!

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    Re: Just too many holes to fill.

    Quote Originally Posted by RedlegJake View Post
    I just don't see the "good itching" vs. "bad" pitching connection. Not in any way that is worse than any other team facing an ace pitcher. The team was inconsistent scoring at times because of their dearth of OBP type hitters after Choo and Votto. Even Bruce, who is dangerous, isn't an OBP guy. He makes lot of outs to go with his power. Not to an extreme but it's the part of his game that keeps him from the very top tier of hitters. Mez, Cozie, Frazier, Heisey - all of them are aggressive free swingers with low OBP. If your lineup is power laden but has lowish to really bad OBP hitters in 7 spots, a boom and bust offense seems likely. Just too many outs in too many spots. And with the exception of Bruce and BP, none of them have the kind of power that compensates for their low on base numbers. That's 5 hitters who can be counted on to make a lot of outs, two who still make a lot of outs but can hit, and two who get on base regularly as clockwork. Take out Votto and Choo and the percentage of "safeties" to outs is way too low. As to pitching, I'd rather them face a hard throwing ace than an offspeed junkballer. A guy like Arroyo just eats them alive.
    Not much different than most other teams. The Reds were a pretty good team last year. They just weren't good enough to finish ahead of the Cards and Pirates. I'm not sure what has changed...that is positive.

    Walt hit a HR with Choo. That's not coming back. Hamilton is intriguing but he'll be lucky to have a .280 OBP. Even so, he'll steal 60-70 bases and score a ton of runs. He'll play a better CF as well. He has to stay healthy.

    I'm not optimistic about BP. He's aging and the bat seems to have slowed. His defense remains stellar but the offense may continue to decline.

    The Reds need to find an unexpected position player who can strap the team to his back and produce out of his wazoo.

    The pitching remains solid, rotation and bullpen, so should give us a chance to win. The defense is as good as anyone out there.

    If Pittsburgh and the Cardinals continue to play inspired baseball, it will be a great season again. One thing is sure, we shouldn't have the favored monkey sitting on the Reds back this year.

  19. #28
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    Re: Just too many holes to fill.

    "Originally Posted by bullseye View Post
    The Reds put up a ton of numbers against bad pitching. Take a look at our numbers against opponents top 3 pitchers and you will be amazed at how bad we were."

    Quote Originally Posted by Scotly View Post
    i noticed this also. The Reds seemed to have the ability to score 10 runs, then barely score a run a game for the next week.

    This team, imho, does not have a core of players that can win the World Series. We need a few players who are not afraid to put the ball in play. We have a few players who seem to fold when pressure arises.

    As Jocketty found out, this team is more than a couple of players away from being real players for the Series. Give him credit he filled the holes he saw last year, but should have looked at the Giants series a little closer.

    You know, good pitchers shut down good hitting teams.

    To ease your mind on the Reds lineup in 2013.

    St Louis Cardinals 783 Runs Scored
    Cincinnati Reds 698 Runs Scored
    Atlanta Braves 688 Runs Scored.


    (Note: Colorado was 2nd with 706 runs, but they are in Coors and they get inflated hitting totals, so I just removed them and took the next highest scoring team in the NL which was the Braves)


    Times shutout.

    Cards. 11
    Reds. 11
    Braves. 17


    The more potent Cards lineup, the one that scored 85 more runs than the Reds were shutout the same amount of times. The Braves who are comparable to the Reds in overall runs scored, were shutout 6 more times.

    Times scoring 1,2 or 3 runs.

    Cards. 54 times
    Reds. 61 times
    Braves 61 times.

    Yes, the Cards scored 1,2 or 3 runs 7 fewer times than the Reds or Braves. Considering they have better hitting, not a surprise.


    Yes, the Reds padded their runs total by having some huge Run games. But so do all the other teams. Good teams punish bad pitchers.

    The Reds scored 9 runs or more 16 times and got 168 runs in those games.
    The Braves scored 9 or more runs 17 times and got 176 runs in those games.

    The Cards scored 9 runs or more 26 times and scored 285 runs in those games. 285 runs minus 168 = 117 runs. Overall the Cards outscored the Reds on the season by 85 runs. They did this primarily on blowing teams out more often than the Reds.


    The Reds are like other hitting teams. Sure they get shutout from time to time, but it's no different than any other team.

    Compare them to the Braves, because Cincy only scored 10 more runs than them the entire season.

    The Reds scored 3 runs or less 72 times. The Braves scored 3 runs or less 78 times.

    The Cards with their so called great offense was shut out as many times as the Reds were. You have to put things into perspective. To think that you can go the entire season and not have games where you score 2 runs or less quite a few times is silly.

    A Quick look @ the data suggests that the Reds weren't abnormal in terms of the games they scored 3 runs or less. They were better than the Braves, slightly worse than the Cardinals. Overall, the Reds were pretty solid offensively last year. Not awesome, but pretty darn good. If it wasn't for Coors field, they basically were the 2nd best hitting team in the NL. Not too shabby.

  20. #29
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    Re: Just too many holes to fill.

    I think at this point in mid december with new leadership running this team and the roster still not complete it is impossible to say what will happen next season. At this point I believe the Pirates due to some losses of certain players are not the team they were at season end and the Cards are maybe the same or a little less as I am not sold on their new SS being that much of an offsensive force if he stoped juicing, so I am willing to wait an see what other moves Walt makes and what kind of lineup Price goes with before jumping off the ship...

  21. #30
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    Re: Just too many holes to fill.

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Fan View Post
    I think at this point in mid december with new leadership running this team and the roster still not complete it is impossible to say what will happen next season. At this point I believe the Pirates due to some losses of certain players are not the team they were at season end and the Cards are maybe the same or a little less as I am not sold on their new SS being that much of an offsensive force if he stoped juicing, so I am willing to wait an see what other moves Walt makes and what kind of lineup Price goes with before jumping off the ship...
    If Peralta has his worse season ever it is an upgrade from what they had last year. And he juiced prior to 2013


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