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Thread: Offseason Deals and Rumors

  1. #661
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    Re: Offseason Deals and Rumors

    Quote Originally Posted by Jamz View Post
    If the Reds can ink Bailey to a long-term deal, and the Marlins face the reality that is getting rid of Stanton...how would you all feel about a deal with the main pieces being Stephenson and Winker/Ervin going back?
    Nope. Not dealing a potential ace with all of his controllable years ahead of him - even for Stanton who I covet. I know, never fall in love with prospects and there are no guarantees he'll pan out but Bobbie Steve is one I'll roll the dice with. Chapman, Ervin AND Winker(+) (with a Stanton extension)? Yes Please.
    Last edited by corkedbat; 02-10-2014 at 03:43 PM.

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  3. #662
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    Re: Offseason Deals and Rumors

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

    Royals Place Emilio Bonifacio On Release Waivers

    By Charlie Wilmoth [February 10 at 1:09pm CST]

    FEB. 10: The Royals have requested unconditional release waivers on Bonifacio, tweets Chris Cotillo of MLB Daily Dish. Any team can now claim Bonifacio if they are willing to take on the entirety of his $3.5MM salary. Those claims will be determined according to last year's league-wide standings and are not subject to the in-season rule that would give AL teams the first shot at him (2013 league-wide standings are also used for the first month of the regular season, as opposed to league-specific priority). Should he clear waivers, he will be a free agent and can then sign with a team of his choosing.

  4. #663
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Offseason Deals and Rumors

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Here's what I actually said --

    "IMO you can't have a bunch of players with below .300 OBPs on your team. Even .310 isn't very good. Heisey needs to work on this problem or nobody will want him as his price tag goes up in arbitration and he'll find himself signing minor league contracts with spring training invites."

    Do you really disagree with this? Do you really think -- even in a period of down offense -- that the Reds will succeed with a bunch of sub-.300 OBP players? Do you really think .310 is a desirable OBP on a contending team?
    310 obp is fine for a bench player if he can do other things (like Heisey).
    As someone else pointed out, the average OBP of a bench player is quite low (Can't find the exact number).

    Now I agree the bar is higher for a starting position player.
    But inherently, just about all bench players are flawed. The ones that aren't flawed eventually win a starting job somewhere.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

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    Old school 1983 (02-10-2014)

  6. #664
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    Re: Offseason Deals and Rumors

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    310 obp is fine for a bench player if he can do other things (like Heisey).
    As someone else pointed out, the average OBP of a bench player is quite low (Can't find the exact number).

    Now I agree the bar is higher for a starting position player.
    But inherently, just about all bench players are flawed. The ones that aren't flawed eventually win a starting job somewhere.
    The average OBP in the National League last season, for all non-pitchers, was .323. A previous post on the thread contained a lower number, but that apparently includes pitchers. I used Fangraphs as my source.

    A bench outfielder like Heisey, who is supposed to provide offense (not a backup shortstop), generally should not be 13 points below league average OBP for non-pitchers. So IMO the hypothetical .310 would not be adequate for Heisey, unless coupled with superb power hitting stats (always possible). He does provide good defense, but IMO if he doesn't hit he is a fifth outfielder, particularly on the Reds with OF questions.

    But this is all theoretical. Because in fact Heisey did not hit .310 OBP last year. He had a .279 OBP and a 3.7 percent walk rate last year. If he does .310 or better next season (hopefully) we can resume the discussion about that number.

    (Side note, of interest, when comparing only non-pitchers' hitting stats in both leagues, the AL has a .406-.401 edge in slugging, but the NL has a slight lead in OBP (2013)).
    Last edited by Kc61; 02-10-2014 at 09:51 PM.

  7. #665
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    Re: Offseason Deals and Rumors

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    The average OBP in the National League last season, for all non-pitchers, was .323. A previous post on the thread contained a lower number, but that apparently includes pitchers. I used Fangraphs as my source.

    A bench outfielder like Heisey, who is supposed to provide offense (not a backup shortstop), generally should not be 13 points below league average OBP for non-pitchers. So IMO the hypothetical .310 would not be adequate for Heisey, unless coupled with superb power hitting stats (always possible). He does provide good defense, but IMO if he doesn't hit he is a fifth outfielder, particularly on the Reds with OF questions.

    But this is all theoretical. Because in fact Heisey did not hit .310 OBP last year. He had a .279 OBP and a 3.7 percent walk rate last year. If he does .310 or better next season (hopefully) we can resume the discussion about that number.

    (Side note, of interest, when comparing only non-pitchers' hitting stats in both leagues, the AL has a .406-.401 edge in slugging, but the NL has a slight lead in OBP (2013)).
    .328 for NL OF, .413 SLG (Heisey was average for slugging)

    Reds OF outside of Choo and Bruce was pitiful last year, no secondary skills, no power, no hitting for average.

    Code:
    CINCINNATI REDS
    SEASON
    2013
    OF
    SLG vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    OPS vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    AT BATS <= 300
    AVERAGE vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    SECONDARY AVERAGE vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    
    OBA                             DIFF   PLAYER   LEAGUE     SLG      OPS      AB       AVG      SEC    
    1    Billy Hamilton             .099     .429     .330     .086     .185       19     .111     .631   
    2    Xavier Paul                .016     .339     .323    -.010     .006      209    -.012     .016   
    3    Derrick Robinson          -.001     .322     .323    -.089    -.090      192    -.001    -.089   
    4    Ryan Ludwick              -.030     .293     .323    -.086    -.117      129    -.016    -.109   
    5    Chris Heisey              -.044     .279     .323     .003    -.041      224    -.019    -.039   
    6    Donald Lutz               -.069     .254     .323    -.102    -.171       58    -.015    -.151

  8. #666
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    Re: Offseason Deals and Rumors

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    .328 for NL OF, .413 SLG (Heisey was average for slugging)

    Reds OF outside of Choo and Bruce was pitiful last year, no secondary skills, no power, no hitting for average.

    Code:
    
    
    Ludwick's injury, obviously, had a huge impact on the Reds OF numbers. Hopefully he can have a good year in 2014, I'm optimistic about him. He seemed to take well to GABP. If healthy . . .

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    REDREAD (02-11-2014)

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    Re: Offseason Deals and Rumors

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

    Marlins Designate Chris Hatcher For Assignment
    By Jeff Todd [February 11 at 3:20pm CST]
    The Marlins have designated reliever Chris Hatcher for assignment to create roster space for Carlos Marmol, the club announced. Hatcher, 29, had spent his entire career in the Marlins' system.

    After seeing a cup of coffee with the Fish back in 2010 as a catcher, Hatcher shed his gear and took to the hill, reaching the bigs again in the very next season from the opposite end of the battery. The double-duty man has produced solid results throwing in the upper minors, but has not found success at the MLB level. Hatcher has thrown just 33 2/3 innings of 7.22 ERA ball over the last three seasons.



    http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...ww.typepad.com

  11. #668
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    Re: Offseason Deals and Rumors

    Chris Hatcher went to my alma mata of UNC Wilmington. I would like the Reds to take a chance on him as a catcher while he works on his pitching. He coluld provide some depth.

  12. #669
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    Re: Offseason Deals and Rumors

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Ludwick's injury, obviously, had a huge impact on the Reds OF numbers. Hopefully he can have a good year in 2014, I'm optimistic about him. He seemed to take well to GABP. If healthy . . .
    Turns 36 this year, hasn't played more than 139 games in a season since 2008 (actually only once in his career), 1 good season in the last 5 years.

    We are in the supposed post PED era... guys like him do not age well.

    It still boggles my mind that people have high hopes/expectations for him He's LITERALLY done almost NOTHING to warrant it.
    Suck it up cupcake.

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    Crumbley (02-17-2014)

  14. #670
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    Re: Offseason Deals and Rumors

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    Turns 36 this year, hasn't played more than 139 games in a season since 2008 (actually only once in his career), 1 good season in the last 5 years.

    We are in the supposed post PED era... guys like him do not age well.

    It still boggles my mind that people have high hopes/expectations for him He's LITERALLY done almost NOTHING to warrant it.
    Ludwick is 35 and will turn 36 in July. He doesn't play a true full season, Dusty rested him very often, Ludwick would be better off with a strong fourth outfielder playing some LF.

    But when he was healthy as a Red in 2012 he did have a good year. So if he's healthy in 2014 he may well have another good season, or at least an acceptable one.

  15. #671
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Offseason Deals and Rumors

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Ludwick is 35 and will turn 36 in July. He doesn't play a true full season, Dusty rested him very often, Ludwick would be better off with a strong fourth outfielder playing some LF.

    But when he was healthy as a Red in 2012 he did have a good year. So if he's healthy in 2014 he may well have another good season, or at least an acceptable one.
    that completely ignores his 2009, 2010, and 2011 seasons where he was rested and stunk. He's older, coming off a major shoulder injury, one that saps power until healed and strengthened.

    I'm smelling a .710 OPS.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  16. #672
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    Re: Offseason Deals and Rumors

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    that completely ignores his 2009, 2010, and 2011 seasons where he was rested and stunk. He's older, coming off a major shoulder injury, one that saps power until healed and strengthened.

    I'm smelling a .710 OPS.
    2009 Ludwick .775 OPS. 2010 he got .743. Then he was bad in 2011 at .674. Then .877 for the Reds in 2012. Not a terrible record for Ludwick in those years over all. And better in previous years.

    If he can OPS .750 for the Reds he'll probably be third best on the team. Even below .750 he might be third best. Look at some of these other guys' numbers. Pretty dismal.
    Last edited by Kc61; 02-12-2014 at 01:29 PM.

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    mth123 (02-13-2014)

  18. #673
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    Re: Offseason Deals and Rumors

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Ludwick is 35 and will turn 36 in July. He doesn't play a true full season, Dusty rested him very often, Ludwick would be better off with a strong fourth outfielder playing some LF.

    But when he was healthy as a Red in 2012 he did have a good year. So if he's healthy in 2014 he may well have another good season, or at least an acceptable one.
    No excuse at all for Walt not adding a solid platoon option for Ludwick at the very least.

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    Kc61 (02-12-2014)

  20. #674
    malingered here too long malcontent's Avatar
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    Re: Offseason Deals and Rumors

    Quote Originally Posted by corkedbat View Post
    No excuse at all for Walt not adding a solid platoon option for Ludwick at the very least.
    I'm inclined to agree with this. I thought he would at least sign Jason Kubel.

    But right now I'll just be happy to see them keep Bernadina (over Hannahan). They want a vet back-up for Hamilton in CF. I think Bernadina would be a good one.

    What I don't want to see is Chris Heisey hacking his way through another 250 PA.
    Everything is perfect, but there is a lot of room for improvement. --- Shunryu Suzuki-roshi

  21. #675
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    Re: Offseason Deals and Rumors

    Quote Originally Posted by malcontent View Post
    I'm inclined to agree with this. I thought he would at least sign Jason Kubel.

    But right now I'll just be happy to see them keep Bernadina (over Hannahan). They want a vet back-up for Hamilton in CF. I think Bernadina would be a good one.

    What I don't want to see is Chris Heisey hacking his way through another 250 PA.
    I'm guessing that against some righties Schumaker will be the left fielder. Against some lefties Heisey will be the CFer.

    If Bernadina makes it, then Schumaker presumably would play mostly infield replacing Hannahan or Santiago. Still think Hannahan is likely to stay, Reds owe him a guaranteed contract and buy out. Don't think the Reds are going to let Jack go and still owe him $3 million.
    Last edited by Kc61; 02-12-2014 at 01:44 PM.


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