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Thread: Offseason Deals and Rumors

  1. #121
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Offseason Deals and Rumors

    Quote Originally Posted by OneManBand View Post
    Chapman for the record makes $3 Million.. which is cheaper then Option 1 & 2
    Chapman, for the record, gets a $3 Million bonus, gets another $1.25 Million Bonus after the 2014 season and still gets to go to arbitration to determine his salary. The cost of Chapman is one of the bigger misnomers on this board. All in this year he'll cost between $8 and $9 Million. He was cheap last year, but that's over. His remaining 2 years of control will be even more expensive. As a closer, he's not really a bargain no matter the 105 MPH he threw that one time. If the Reds wait a year, they wouldn't get much for him IMO. Look at the trouble Philly is having dealing Papelbon. Now is the time to deal Chapman for a big (three legit prospect) return. After this season, it will be more about moving his money and less about the players coming back even if he saves 50 games. Look at what the Orioles got for a guy who saved 50 the last two years - a failed prospect and salary relief.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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  4. #122
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    Re: Offseason Deals and Rumors

    Crazy idea. Trade Chap for outfield offense. Sign Bronson for 3 yrs but convince him to close. Rubber arm could throw 4 days in a row easily. Might extend his career like Smoltz and Eck did.

  5. #123
    Just A Couple Johnny's OneManBand's Avatar
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    Re: Offseason Deals and Rumors

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Chapman, for the record, gets a $3 Million bonus, gets another $1.25 Million Bonus after the 2014 season and still gets to go to arbitration to determine his salary. The cost of Chapman is one of the bigger misnomers on this board. All in this year he'll cost between $8 and $9 Million. He was cheap last year, but that's over. His remaining 2 years of control will be even more expensive. As a closer, he's not really a bargain no matter the 105 MPH he threw that one time. If the Reds wait a year, they wouldn't get much for him IMO. Look at the trouble Philly is having dealing Papelbon. Now is the time to deal Chapman for a big (three legit prospect) return. After this season, it will be more about moving his money and less about the players coming back even if he saves 50 games. Look at what the Orioles got for a guy who saved 50 the last two years - a failed prospect and salary relief.
    I apologize but I referanced:

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...hapmar01.shtml

    If I remember right at the time of signing him wasn't a portion to be deferred which wouldn't factor in to financials in regards to payroll/budget? Quote me if i'm wrong.

    From ESPN.com:

    He agreed to a complicated contract that helps the Reds at the outset. He gets $1.5 million of his signing bonus when his contract is approved by Major League Baseball, $1.5 million each Nov. 1 from 2010 to 2013 and $1.25 million each Nov. 1 from 2014 to 2020.

    Chapman gets annual salaries of $1 million this year and next, $2 million each in 2012 and 2013 and $3 million in 2014. Within five days of the 2014 World Series, he must decide whether to exercise a $5 million player option for 2015.

    If Chapman is eligible for salary arbitration after the 2012 season, he would get $5 million converted to a bonus and become eligible for arbitration. If he is arbitration eligible after the 2013 season, he would get $3 million converted to a bonus and then be eligible for arbitration.
    Last edited by OneManBand; 12-21-2013 at 04:30 PM.

  6. #124
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    Re: Offseason Deals and Rumors

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Chapman, for the record, gets a $3 Million bonus, gets another $1.25 Million Bonus after the 2014 season and still gets to go to arbitration to determine his salary. The cost of Chapman is one of the bigger misnomers on this board. All in this year he'll cost between $8 and $9 Million. He was cheap last year, but that's over. His remaining 2 years of control will be even more expensive. As a closer, he's not really a bargain no matter the 105 MPH he threw that one time. If the Reds wait a year, they wouldn't get much for him IMO. Look at the trouble Philly is having dealing Papelbon. Now is the time to deal Chapman for a big (three legit prospect) return. After this season, it will be more about moving his money and less about the players coming back even if he saves 50 games. Look at what the Orioles got for a guy who saved 50 the last two years - a failed prospect and salary relief.
    Joe Nathan in his late thirties just got a $20 million two year contract. Chapman is clearly worth the money he will be paid in the remaining two years.

    Let's live in the present. Good players make money. That money is measured in millions. Any very good player, which Chapman is, under $10 million generally makes sense.

    The man is a two-time all star who was spectacular in 2012 and very good (not great) in 2013.

    Given his reliance on velocity, I'd be concerned if Aroldis got major money for five more years. But his contract now is relatively short, he still throws bullets.

    Keep removing the top arms from the Reds and see where they will be. No place.

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  8. #125
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Offseason Deals and Rumors

    Quote Originally Posted by OneManBand View Post
    I apologize but I referanced:

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...hapmar01.shtml

    If I remember right at the time of signing him wasn't a portion to be deferred which wouldn't factor in to financials in regards to payroll/budget? Quote me if i'm wrong.

    From ESPN.com:
    No need to apologize. Most websites have this wrong. Need to go to COTS and read all the details to see about the salary converting to bonus. I get the bonus thing, but it's still cash out. It didn't cost then anything back when he signed, but it's costing now. Another reason that the TV bump is already spent.

    Three years of control might still have value. I'd definitely want the acquiring team to pay the $3 Million and the arb award. The deferred bonus is negotiable depending on the prospects I suppose. I'd shoot for one Top 100 prospect ata position of need (CF if immediately ready, otherwise MI) a solid future closer type to fill in the pen with others being promoted to closer and another position player who looks like a sure major leaguer but maybe not a top prospect (think along the lines of Ryan Hanigan as a minor leaguer).

    Not sure who the names would be on Baltimore, but that's the deal the Reds should be aiming for. Then they can add that cash to the payflex they have to sign a bat or take on a contract in another deal. Unlike dealing Bailey, dealing Chapman in a deal where a cheap bullpen backfill is acquired saves payroll for 3 years and allows a real shot at a long term signing.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  9. #126
    Just A Couple Johnny's OneManBand's Avatar
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    Re: Offseason Deals and Rumors

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    No need to apologize. Most websites have this wrong. Need to go to COTS and read all the details to see about the salary converting to bonus. I get the bonus thing, but it's still cash out. It didn't cost then anything back when he signed, but it's costing now. Another reason that the TV bump is already spent.

    Three years of control might still have value. I'd definitely want the acquiring team to pay the $3 Million and the arb award. The deferred bonus is negotiable depending on the prospects I suppose. I'd shoot for one Top 100 prospect ata position of need (CF if immediately ready, otherwise MI) a solid future closer type to fill in the pen with others being promoted to closer and another position player who looks like a sure major leaguer but maybe not a top prospect (think along the lines of Ryan Hanigan as a minor leaguer).

    Not sure who the names would be on Baltimore, but that's the deal the Reds should be aiming for. Then they can add that cash to the payflex they have to sign a bat or take on a contract in another deal. Unlike dealing Bailey, dealing Chapman in a deal where a cheap bullpen backfill is acquired saves payroll for 3 years and allows a real shot at a long term signing.
    So per COTs:

    Chapman for 2014 makes - $5,708,333

    https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?...gw&output=html

    Regardless how much he makes.. its fair to say he's tough to replace.

  10. #127
    Member Norm Chortleton's Avatar
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    Re: Offseason Deals and Rumors

    Quote Originally Posted by OneManBand View Post
    So per COTs:

    Regardless how much he makes.. its fair to say he's tough to replace.
    You would have a hard time replacing his peripherals. You could easily replace his results from the past two years.

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  12. #128
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    Re: Offseason Deals and Rumors

    Quote Originally Posted by Norm Chortleton View Post
    You would have a hard time replacing his peripherals. You could easily replace his results from the past two years.
    You can easily replace Chapman's save results -- if you guess right. But for a lesser thrower, a lesser bat misser, it's a high risk proposition.

    It does work sometimes. But just as often fails.

    If you want a reliable choice to replace Chapman, he will be expensive or cost talent.

    IMO if the Reds trade Chapman and don't get another proven excellent closer the bullpen will be a big liability. It may not be that great with Aroldis given the injury situation.

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    I(heart)Freel (12-21-2013), Old school 1983 (12-22-2013), RED VAN HOT (12-21-2013), villain612 (12-22-2013)

  14. #129
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Offseason Deals and Rumors

    Quote Originally Posted by OneManBand View Post
    So per COTs:

    Chapman for 2014 makes - $5,708,333

    https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?...gw&output=html

    Regardless how much he makes.. its fair to say he's tough to replace.
    Not sure where the spreadsheet is getting that number.

    Here are the numbers and clauses:


    $16.25M signing bonus ($1.5M at signing; $1.5M each Nov. 1, 2010-13; $1.25M each Nov. 1, 2014-20)
    So that is 1.25 Million on Nov 1.


    if Chapman qualifies for arbitration after 2013, $3M is converted to a bonus and he becomes arbitration-eligible
    So that is $3 Million in bonus money plus whatever he is awarded in arbitration. Using the MLB Traderumors estimated arb award of $4.6 Million you get:

    1.25 + 3.0 + 4.6 = 8.85 Million.

    Next year (2015) he won't have the $3 Million bonus, but his arb award will go up as a second year guy. The following year he'll be even higher. The Reds probably will pay him around $30 Million over the three years. Too much for a closer who doesn't really convert saves and any better rate that the run of the mill closer. I don't care how many K's he gets or what the radar gun says, that $30 Million would be better spent on a bat with a guy like Hoover converting around the same number of saves and a hard thrower for cheap replacing him in the middle of the pen.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Az Red (12-21-2013)

  16. #130
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Offseason Deals and Rumors

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Joe Nathan in his late thirties just got a $20 million two year contract. Chapman is clearly worth the money he will be paid in the remaining two years.

    Let's live in the present. Good players make money. That money is measured in millions. Any very good player, which Chapman is, under $10 million generally makes sense.

    The man is a two-time all star who was spectacular in 2012 and very good (not great) in 2013.

    Given his reliance on velocity, I'd be concerned if Aroldis got major money for five more years. But his contract now is relatively short, he still throws bullets.

    Keep removing the top arms from the Reds and see where they will be. No place.
    And a 30 year old All Star who saved 101 games, with a higher success rate than Chapman's, the last two years was just traded for Jemile Weeks. We could do this all day.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  17. #131
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    Re: Offseason Deals and Rumors

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    And a 30 year old All Star who saved 101 games, with a higher success rate than Chapman's, the last two years was just traded for Jemile Weeks. We could do this all day.
    Jim Johnson is my argument, not yours. Despite his MLB leading nine blown saves last year, and despite his $10 million arbitration expectancy, he was acquired by the very savvy Oakland A's.

    And then the Orioles, who traded Johnson, agreed to sign closer Balfour for $15 million over two years. A deal cancelled by virtue of his physical.

    Benoit, signed for $15.5 million by the Padres for two years.

    The A's, Orioles, Padres, not huge spending teams all paying (or agreed to pay) upwards of $7 million per year for a closer this off-season.

    It just doesn't seem to me that teams are that frequently going dirt cheap on closers. Even some good set up men (Boone Logan, Matt Belisle, Javier Lopez) got higher than $4 million per. Logan higher than $5 million per.

    Mujica and Janssen closers signed for less per year, but still in the $4-5 million per year range. Axford got $4.5 million from the Indians. But Brian Wilson, like Nathan, got $10 million from the Dodgers.

    This is what higher end relievers cost in 2013-14. Minimum of $4 million up through the $10 million level. Based on this season's free agency. And there are even higher paid guys. like Raphael Soriano, from previous years.

    Maybe at some point Chapman's ability and performance won't be worth it, but this coming year (2014) -- I think most teams in baseball would want his current 2014 deal given his ability and likely performance level. We'll see what Walt and Co. decide.
    Last edited by Kc61; 12-22-2013 at 09:42 AM.

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    Old school 1983 (12-22-2013)

  19. #132
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    Re: Offseason Deals and Rumors

    If you assume that Chapman will be a 9th inning only guy under Price, and not someone who is used more flexibly in fireman type situations, then trading him probably makes some sense if the return is right. But if he is used not just as your ninth inning guy, then he becomes a good bit more valuable, and the return diminishes.

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    Re: Offseason Deals and Rumors

    Various internet reports today that this off-season could result in $2 billion of player transactions. And it seems from the articles that this only includes free agents signed.

    It puts in context the Reds' inactivity and the shock some people have about particular contracts and potential acquisitions.

    This is a huge business with massive amounts of money being invested in player salaries. Maybe fans shouldn't expect too much -- but they shouldn't expect too little, either.

  22. #134
    Just A Couple Johnny's OneManBand's Avatar
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    Re: Offseason Deals and Rumors

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Various internet reports today that this off-season could result in $2 billion of player transactions. And it seems from the articles that this only includes free agents signed.

    It puts in context the Reds' inactivity and the shock some people have about particular contracts and potential acquisitions.

    This is a huge business with massive amounts of money being invested in player salaries. Maybe fans shouldn't expect too much -- but they shouldn't expect too little, either.
    We are at what $10 Million dished out? Maybe less if you factor in what we would of paid to Hanigan.

  23. #135
    I hate the Cubs LoganBuck's Avatar
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    Re: Offseason Deals and Rumors

    At this rate, I am very upset at the lack of activity. I am not a make a move, for the sake of making a move guy. The Reds are trying to sell this team as a contender for a World Series title, and have done nothing to improve their offensive weaknesses, and have lost a key player from an already flawed lineup. Without massively improving one of LF CF SS 2B or 3B, this team is toast. Don't buy the play the game optimists, they are selling Eskimo boogers.
    The Sox traded Bullfrog the only player they've got for Shottenhoffen. Four-eyes Shottenhoffen a utility infielder. They've got a whole team of utility infielders.


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