Top 10 Rotations

[ac084c]

I never really like these lists as anything more than a conversation piece to pass time in the offseason. The Reds are too low in the sense that their rotation will and has carry/carried the team in the past. I think the Cardinals are just about right because they have a lot of above average starters. I normally don't put too much weight in regression season to season like a lot of people on this forum seem to. I especially don't put weight in it when it comes to young players regressing on teams with strong organizations. The Cardinals have proven to be able to avoid it in the past and I have no reason to think they won't this year. Now that the Reds have gotten Dusty out of here, I think they can be a team with a strong enough coaching staff to avoid regression to. A completely healthy Reds starting 5 is simply better than the Cardinals starting 5. My worry is that the Cardinals have a 6,7,8 that aren't much different than their 4 or 5 and I'm not sure the Reds have that.

First of all, I'm curious as to who comprises your two teams hypothetically healthy starting 5s.

Secondly - I'm really curious to see some data behind your assertion that they're [the Reds] "simply better".

[LewGra]

Dodgers/Nationals/Braves rotation: overrated. Cards and Reds rotations: underrated.

The mix is right though.

Wait until you see how overrated the Dodgers rotation is when they sign the sign the Japanese Messiah, Tanaka and get Price (sarcasm).

[LewGra]

You should take me as seriously as you take the people that made predictions in last year's prediction thread that turned out nowhere near true.
I recall one saying the Cardinals wouldn't win 70 games, another saying that Votto and Bruce would hit 40 bombs, and one saying that 5 Reds pitchers would end up in the top 10 of Cy Young voting.

I never took them seriously. Bruce with 40 HR's isn't as far-fetched as you think. He's reached 30 or more the last 3 years and when you consider how smalll GABP is, it could happen. Votto reached 37 his MVP year, but now his swing is producing more line drives that drop in for doubles than HRs and I don't think we'll see him put up 35+ unless he changes his approach.

[ac084c]

I never took them seriously. Bruce with 40 HR's isn't as far-fetched as you think. He's reached 30 or more the last 3 years and when you consider how smalll GABP is, it could happen. Votto reached 37 his MVP year, but now his swing is producing more line drives that drop in for doubles than HRs and I don't think we'll see him put up 35+ unless he changes his approach.

Maybe if they change the rules to award 4 bases for taking ball 4.

[TDogg]

Me, I'm glad there's baseball talk in December. 50 more days til Spring Training!

[RedsAndCatsFan]

First of all, I'm curious as to who comprises your two teams hypothetically healthy starting 5s.

Secondly - I'm really curious to see some data behind your assertion that they're [the Reds] "simply better".

I didn't get my point across as well as I would've liked. But what I meant is that a completely healthy Reds rotation of Latos, Cueto, Bailey, Leake, Cingrani is better to me 1-5 than Wainwright, Wacha, Miller and whoever they choose between Garcia, Martinez, Kelly, or Lynn. Now if you asked me which set of pitchers I'd rather have it'd be easy to choose St. Louis considering they have at least 8 guys who can start (if you throw Rosenthal in there) on top of young cost-controlled arms with tons of upside.

Injuries always happen, but if the Reds get a little bit of luck and have their 5 pitchers for the majority of the season, I think they will compete with the Cardinals. As for data about my assertion that the Reds are simply better, I might have had my red tinted glasses on when I said that. But the Reds starters outpitched the Cardinals starters when you adjust for ballpark factors, and I think we could see the same this year with a completely healthy Cueto.

[ac084c]

I didn't get my point across as well as I would've liked. But what I meant is that a completely healthy Reds rotation of Latos, Cueto, Bailey, Leake, Cingrani is better to me 1-5 than Wainwright, Wacha, Miller and whoever they choose between Garcia, Martinez, Kelly, or Lynn. Now if you asked me which set of pitchers I'd rather have it'd be easy to choose St. Louis considering they have at least 8 guys who can start (if you throw Rosenthal in there) on top of young cost-controlled arms with tons of upside.

Injuries always happen, but if the Reds get a little bit of luck and have their 5 pitchers for the majority of the season, I think they will compete with the Cardinals. As for data about my assertion that the Reds are simply better, I might have had my red tinted glasses on when I said that. But the Reds starters outpitched the Cardinals starters when you adjust for ballpark factors, and I think we could see the same this year with a completely healthy Cueto.

Nope - I understand that perfectly, I just wanted to know who you were considering for starting pitchers to compare between both teams, and what stats - if any - you were using to base your claim.

Something along the lines of:

Latos vs. Wainwright - Advantage XX (xFIP, ERA+, W-L, etc etc)

When you don't have that, it just comes out as blind homerism.

[RedlegJake]

Completely.
Latos and Bailey are two of the top ten starters in baseball.
Cueto is around 15th or 20th because of injury concerns but has the talent to be top four.
Leake would be an ace on a lot of staffs.
Cingrani is the best young pitcher in MLB. I think he's better than Cole, Fernandez, Harvey, etc...

#1 would be a lot better stated as National League - you could make a case for it but top 20 in the NL would be easier to defend.
#2 Well, the first half is spot on but top 4 I think is over rating Cueto quite a bit.
#3 Maybe for the worst 2 or 3 staffs but he is a very solid #4-5 starter. But your earlier assertion he should be at 2.90 or lower is way, way optimistic. Amend that to 3.50 and you might defend it.
#4 He'll certainly be better than Harvey next year. Best in MLB? Now that is hyperbole. This may be the worst of your predictions.

Overall I am not saying your predictions couldn't come true, its just very unlikely. First, Cueto, Latos and Cingrani have health concerns. I'd be very surprised if at least one of them doesn't bite the dust at some point. Cingrani still needs better consistency with secondary stuff and has to be more efficient. 5 innings a game won't get it. I take you seriously, though.

[bullseye]

I think our rotation is top 10, but Bailey is not a top ten pitcher by any means. Latos and Cueto? Definitely.

[ac084c]

I think our rotation is top 10, but Bailey is not a top ten pitcher by any means. Latos and Cueto? Definitely.

In the NL in 2013:

Bailey was #10 in WAR, #9 in xFIP, #8 in IP.

He also had better K/9 and BB/9 ratios than Latos.

But go ahead and keep hating Homer Bailey because he's a .500 pitcher.

[Reds&BuckeyeGuy]

Don't you think that if they were going to put Chapman in the starting rotation, they would have done, it - oh I don't know, two years ago.... last year even (when Cueto went down). He doesn't want to start, period.

I just dont get why not either.. Is it because he doesnt have a good aresnal of pitches? Doesnt want the stress? Or does he not want the money lol

[ac084c]

I just dont get why not either.. Is it because he doesnt have a good aresnal of pitches? Doesnt want the stress? Or does he not want the money lol

Search me. His pitches are fine, you'd think he'd want the money.

Maybe not the stress - maybe he doesn't want to put the work in required. He's one of the first pitchers I've seen that would rather close than start, though.

[757690]

Reds starters are all between 24-28 years of age, and none have had any serious arm injury. All have above average arms, multiple quality pitches, and solid control. The one thing they lack is a true #1 ace. But Cueto if healthy is one, and the rest all have shown the ability and talent to be one.

I can easily see the Reds having the best rotation in the majors next year.

[indyscott]

Reds starters are all between 24-28 years of age, and none have had any serious arm injury. All have above average arms, multiple quality pitches, and solid control. The one thing they lack is a true #1 ace. But Cueto if healthy is one, and the rest all have shown the ability and talent to be one.

I can easily see the Reds having the best rotation in the majors next year.

Wow. Just when I think you couldnt be more of a homer, you bring this

[ac084c]

Reds starters are all between 24-28 years of age, and none have had any serious arm injury. All have above average arms, multiple quality pitches, and solid control. The one thing they lack is a true #1 ace. But Cueto if healthy is one, and the rest all have shown the ability and talent to be one.

I can easily see the Reds having the best rotation in the majors next year.

We have different definitions of "solid control".