Top 10 Rotations

[LewGra]

Saw someone post ESPN's list on another site. They have:

1. Tigers
2. Dodgers
3. Nationals
4. Cardinals
5. Pirates
6. A's
7. Rangers
8. Braves
9. Reds
10. Rays

They just posted the list so I didn't see their reasoning for each team.

[RealitySetsIn]

I think a conservative estimate is for every Red starter to have an ERA under 2.90 this year. They really should be 1 or 2.

[LewGra]

I think a conservative estimate is for every Red starter to have an ERA under 2.90 this year. They really should be 1 or 2.

[RealitySetsIn]

Completely.
Latos and Bailey are two of the top ten starters in baseball.
Cueto is around 15th or 20th because of injury concerns but has the talent to be top four.
Leake would be an ace on a lot of staffs.
Cingrani is the best young pitcher in MLB. I think he's better than Cole, Fernandez, Harvey, etc...

[LewGra]

Completely.
Latos and Bailey are two of the top ten starters in baseball.
Cueto is around 15th or 20th because of injury concerns but has the talent to be top four.
Leake would be an ace on a lot of staffs.
Cingrani is the best young pitcher in MLB. I think he's better than Cole, Fernandez, Harvey, etc...

Thanks. That should be enough to let people know they don't have to take you seriously.

[RealitySetsIn]

Thanks. That should be enough to let people know they don't have to take you seriously.

You should take me as seriously as you take the people that made predictions in last year's prediction thread that turned out nowhere near true.
I recall one saying the Cardinals wouldn't win 70 games, another saying that Votto and Bruce would hit 40 bombs, and one saying that 5 Reds pitchers would end up in the top 10 of Cy Young voting.

[jlcomo]

Completely.
Latos and Bailey are two of the top ten starters in baseball.
Cueto is around 15th or 20th because of injury concerns but has the talent to be top four.
Leake would be an ace on a lot of staffs.
Cingrani is the best young pitcher in MLB. I think he's better than Cole, Fernandez, Harvey, etc...

Talk about delusional.

[RedlegJake]

Completely.
Latos and Bailey are two of the top ten starters in baseball.
Cueto is around 15th or 20th because of injury concerns but has the talent to be top four.
Leake would be an ace on a lot of staffs.
Cingrani is the best young pitcher in MLB. I think he's better than Cole, Fernandez, Harvey, etc...

#1 would be a lot better stated as National League - you could make a case for it but top 20 in the NL would be easier to defend.
#2 Well, the first half is spot on but top 4 I think is over rating Cueto quite a bit.
#3 Maybe for the worst 2 or 3 staffs but he is a very solid #4-5 starter. But your earlier assertion he should be at 2.90 or lower is way, way optimistic. Amend that to 3.50 and you might defend it.
#4 He'll certainly be better than Harvey next year. Best in MLB? Now that is hyperbole. This may be the worst of your predictions.

Overall I am not saying your predictions couldn't come true, its just very unlikely. First, Cueto, Latos and Cingrani have health concerns. I'd be very surprised if at least one of them doesn't bite the dust at some point. Cingrani still needs better consistency with secondary stuff and has to be more efficient. 5 innings a game won't get it. I take you seriously, though.

[Ladeda]

Saw someone post ESPN's list on another site. They have:

1. Tigers
2. Dodgers
3. Nationals
4. Cardinals
5. Pirates
6. A's
7. Rangers
8. Braves
9. Reds
10. Rays

They just posted the list so I didn't see their reasoning for each team.

I think Cincy is better than 9th. They pitch in a hitter friendly park. Of the top 10, only Texas and Cincy SP's pitch in a top 10 hitters park. But them in an average park and they would look significantly better.

Team Rank Park Factor
Tigers 15th 101
Dodgers 17th 97
Nationals 14th 102
Cardinals 21st 88
Pirates 26th 83
A's 24th 86
Rangers 3rd 125
Braves 16th 97
Reds 4th 121
Rays 25th 85


I don't know how to format-- it looks great when I type it-- then when I post it's ugly. Sorry for the ugly read-- but Texas home park is 3rd, Cincy's is 4th. The next highest park factor is the Nationals @ 14th. As you can see, 8 of the top 10 basically play @ neutral or pitchers parks-- not hitters ballparks like Texas and Cincy.

Park factor #'s from fangraphs.

[Lewdog]

I had said it in another thread, that I had seen multiple guys on ESPN say that the Reds have the best starting rotation in baseball, and if they lose Bailey and insert Chapman into the starting rotation, it will still be in the top 5.

[LewGra]

I had said it in another thread, that I had seen multiple guys on ESPN say that the Reds have the best starting rotation in baseball, and if they lose Bailey and insert Chapman into the starting rotation, it will still be in the top 5.

The same multiple guys on ESPN that told us the Nationals would play the Blue Jays in the World Series?

[ac084c]

I had said it in another thread, that I had seen multiple guys on ESPN say that the Reds have the best starting rotation in baseball, and if they lose Bailey and insert Chapman into the starting rotation, it will still be in the top 5.

Don't you think that if they were going to put Chapman in the starting rotation, they would have done, it - oh I don't know, two years ago.... last year even (when Cueto went down). He doesn't want to start, period.

[Reds&BuckeyeGuy]

Don't you think that if they were going to put Chapman in the starting rotation, they would have done, it - oh I don't know, two years ago.... last year even (when Cueto went down). He doesn't want to start, period.

I just dont get why not either.. Is it because he doesnt have a good aresnal of pitches? Doesnt want the stress? Or does he not want the money lol

[ac084c]

I just dont get why not either.. Is it because he doesnt have a good aresnal of pitches? Doesnt want the stress? Or does he not want the money lol

Search me. His pitches are fine, you'd think he'd want the money.

Maybe not the stress - maybe he doesn't want to put the work in required. He's one of the first pitchers I've seen that would rather close than start, though.

[mth123]

Saw someone post ESPN's list on another site. They have:

1. Tigers
2. Dodgers
3. Nationals
4. Cardinals
5. Pirates
6. A's
7. Rangers
8. Braves
9. Reds
10. Rays

They just posted the list so I didn't see their reasoning for each team.

I think this is about right. Pretty much all the contenders in the NL have really strong rotations. The Reds have a really good group, but they aren't better than the competition (and are probably lagging behind teams like the Nats and Dodgers). I get the standard response that the rotation will carry us and if the rotation stinks it will surely sink us, but the rotation doesn't really give the Reds a competitive advantage in the NL. All the rotations are good and it will come down to offense to differentiate the teams. The Reds are seriously behind most of the contenders in that area.