Last edited by ac084c; 12-28-2013 at 03:21 PM.
Me, I'm glad there's baseball talk in December. 50 more days til Spring Training!
Injuries always happen, but if the Reds get a little bit of luck and have their 5 pitchers for the majority of the season, I think they will compete with the Cardinals. As for data about my assertion that the Reds are simply better, I might have had my red tinted glasses on when I said that. But the Reds starters outpitched the Cardinals starters when you adjust for ballpark factors, and I think we could see the same this year with a completely healthy Cueto.
Something along the lines of:
Latos vs. Wainwright - Advantage XX (xFIP, ERA+, W-L, etc etc)
When you don't have that, it just comes out as blind homerism.
#2 Well, the first half is spot on but top 4 I think is over rating Cueto quite a bit.
#3 Maybe for the worst 2 or 3 staffs but he is a very solid #4-5 starter. But your earlier assertion he should be at 2.90 or lower is way, way optimistic. Amend that to 3.50 and you might defend it.
#4 He'll certainly be better than Harvey next year. Best in MLB? Now that is hyperbole. This may be the worst of your predictions.
Overall I am not saying your predictions couldn't come true, its just very unlikely. First, Cueto, Latos and Cingrani have health concerns. I'd be very surprised if at least one of them doesn't bite the dust at some point. Cingrani still needs better consistency with secondary stuff and has to be more efficient. 5 innings a game won't get it. I take you seriously, though.
No - I am not from State Farm!
I think our rotation is top 10, but Bailey is not a top ten pitcher by any means. Latos and Cueto? Definitely.
Reds starters are all between 24-28 years of age, and none have had any serious arm injury. All have above average arms, multiple quality pitches, and solid control. The one thing they lack is a true #1 ace. But Cueto if healthy is one, and the rest all have shown the ability and talent to be one.
I can easily see the Reds having the best rotation in the majors next year.
"I donít know the key to success, but the key to failure is trying to please everybody".