Last edited by ac084c; 12-28-2013 at 03:21 PM.
I never took them seriously. Bruce with 40 HR's isn't as far-fetched as you think. He's reached 30 or more the last 3 years and when you consider how smalll GABP is, it could happen. Votto reached 37 his MVP year, but now his swing is producing more line drives that drop in for doubles than HRs and I don't think we'll see him put up 35+ unless he changes his approach.
Me, I'm glad there's baseball talk in December. 50 more days til Spring Training!
Reds&BuckeyeGuy (01-03-2014)
I didn't get my point across as well as I would've liked. But what I meant is that a completely healthy Reds rotation of Latos, Cueto, Bailey, Leake, Cingrani is better to me 1-5 than Wainwright, Wacha, Miller and whoever they choose between Garcia, Martinez, Kelly, or Lynn. Now if you asked me which set of pitchers I'd rather have it'd be easy to choose St. Louis considering they have at least 8 guys who can start (if you throw Rosenthal in there) on top of young cost-controlled arms with tons of upside.
Injuries always happen, but if the Reds get a little bit of luck and have their 5 pitchers for the majority of the season, I think they will compete with the Cardinals. As for data about my assertion that the Reds are simply better, I might have had my red tinted glasses on when I said that. But the Reds starters outpitched the Cardinals starters when you adjust for ballpark factors, and I think we could see the same this year with a completely healthy Cueto.
Nope - I understand that perfectly, I just wanted to know who you were considering for starting pitchers to compare between both teams, and what stats - if any - you were using to base your claim.
Something along the lines of:
Latos vs. Wainwright - Advantage XX (xFIP, ERA+, W-L, etc etc)
When you don't have that, it just comes out as blind homerism.
#1 would be a lot better stated as National League - you could make a case for it but top 20 in the NL would be easier to defend.
#2 Well, the first half is spot on but top 4 I think is over rating Cueto quite a bit.
#3 Maybe for the worst 2 or 3 staffs but he is a very solid #4-5 starter. But your earlier assertion he should be at 2.90 or lower is way, way optimistic. Amend that to 3.50 and you might defend it.
#4 He'll certainly be better than Harvey next year. Best in MLB? Now that is hyperbole. This may be the worst of your predictions.
Overall I am not saying your predictions couldn't come true, its just very unlikely. First, Cueto, Latos and Cingrani have health concerns. I'd be very surprised if at least one of them doesn't bite the dust at some point. Cingrani still needs better consistency with secondary stuff and has to be more efficient. 5 innings a game won't get it. I take you seriously, though.
99% of all numbers only tell 33% of the story so when looking at the numbers remember that numbers is plural...
I think our rotation is top 10, but Bailey is not a top ten pitcher by any means. Latos and Cueto? Definitely.
Reds starters are all between 24-28 years of age, and none have had any serious arm injury. All have above average arms, multiple quality pitches, and solid control. The one thing they lack is a true #1 ace. But Cueto if healthy is one, and the rest all have shown the ability and talent to be one.
I can easily see the Reds having the best rotation in the majors next year.
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
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