Early NL Central predictions

[BluegrassRedleg]

I don't understand all this pessimism around the Reds right now. The defense and pitching is still great, which should improve with a healthy Cueto and if Cingrani can repeat last year's performance. LF and CF are our biggest holes at offense. Why is everyone so down right now?

I think I'd say I'm more "guarded" than pessimistic. I just don't know if the staff can repeat what it did last year. I felt like that was a once-in-a-lifetime pitching effort for the Reds.

[REDREAD]

If Hamilton isn't ready, then Choo's relacement could be Schumaker.

True, Schumaker will get some time in CF in that case.
As will Heisey.
I think the Reds can eek out 1.5 to 2 wins out of CF even if Billy flops.
Worst case.. bad offensive production, but improved defense in CF.
Even if Ludwick is only 70-80% of his former self, that's a pretty big upgrade from what we got out of LF in 2013. That will partially offset bad offense in CF.

My prediction;
Cards 93 wins
Reds 90 Wins
Pirates 88 wins

[REDREAD]

If the Reds had the Cardinals players, they wouldn't need to do anything either. The Cards had Carpenter and Adams ready to assume bigger roles and tons of pitchers ready to move in. The Reds have Cingrani and are counting on him. The difference is that the Reds are forcing in 2 kids, who haven't really had the success to deserve it, into an offense that was iffy in the first place. If Mesoraco and Hamilton had shown any of what they were in AA last season, I'd be perfectly content with status quo and letting them take over. But one has failed in the majors 2 years running and the other failed at AAA and the major moves to fix the problems the team had last year is to give them big roles in 2014.

And the Cardinals are counting on Wong to play 2b next year, and after watching him last year, an arguement could be made that he's not ready either (and may never be ready). I'm not going to look up his minor league stats, but he sure seemed overmatched last fall. The Cards also took a bunch of risks with their young pitching last year. It panned out.
The point is, what the Reds are doing with Hamilton and Mes isn't that much different from what the Cards did. At some point, you have to let your best prospects play. I would've liked Billy to get a half season of AAA next year and force his way on to the club, but it looks like we won't have that luxury.
I'm a huge fan of Billy, but I expect him to be the forum whipping boy in the first half of the season. He's going to have a poor OBP to start with (probably). My hope is that in the second half, he can OBP 300-310. With his speed and defense, he's a respectable player at that OBP. Then hopefully in 2015, he takes another step forward.

Anyhow, it doesn't make a whole lot of sense to trade for Dexter Fowler and pay him about 7 million + when you have Billy H so close to ready. (again, I forget Fowlers's exact salary but that's ballpark). It's interesting that the Rockies decided they rather have Stubbs at a lower price and more years than Fowler. (Even if Stubbs does not start, they effectively swapped a roster spot).

The Reds were raked over the coals for not biting the bullet and trying Chapman as a starter, and living with the growing pains for future benefit.
Now it's time to bite the bullet and see if Mes and BillyH can contribute.

Last year, the team went "All in". Even if we didn't agree with those moves (Ludwick and Broxton were probably the most controversial), they were defensible. Well, this offseason, we are partially paying the piiper for going "all in" last year. Payroll looks maxed out. Not many excess prospects to trade. But it's ok, the team will still contend. This is about as good as it's going to get for the Reds. Not directed at you mth.. but there is so much pessimism on this board about a team that has a great shot at making the playoffs. Let's saving the gnashing of teeth for a couple years when the most of the rotation departs for bigger $$ and Chapman/Frasier/Mes/Cozart get too pricey due to arb..

[wheels]

They'll hang around until mid June, falling out of contention and finishing in third place behind the Cards and Cubs with 84 wins.

Yep. The Cubs are 2014's version of the Pirates. You saw it here first.

[indyscott]

And the Cardinals are counting on Wong to play 2b next year, and after watching him last year, an arguement could be made that he's not ready either (and may never be ready). I'm not going to look up his minor league stats, but he sure seemed overmatched last fall. The Cards also took a bunch of risks with their young pitching last year. It panned out.
The point is, what the Reds are doing with Hamilton and Mes isn't that much different from what the Cards did. At some point, you have to let your best prospects play. I would've liked Billy to get a half season of AAA next year and force his way on to the club, but it looks like we won't have that luxury.
I'm a huge fan of Billy, but I expect him to be the forum whipping boy in the first half of the season. He's going to have a poor OBP to start with (probably). My hope is that in the second half, he can OBP 300-310. With his speed and defense, he's a respectable player at that OBP. Then hopefully in 2015, he takes another step forward.

Anyhow, it doesn't make a whole lot of sense to trade for Dexter Fowler and pay him about 7 million + when you have Billy H so close to ready. (again, I forget Fowlers's exact salary but that's ballpark). It's interesting that the Rockies decided they rather have Stubbs at a lower price and more years than Fowler. (Even if Stubbs does not start, they effectively swapped a roster spot).

The Reds were raked over the coals for not biting the bullet and trying Chapman as a starter, and living with the growing pains for future benefit.
Now it's time to bite the bullet and see if Mes and BillyH can contribute.

Last year, the team went "All in". Even if we didn't agree with those moves (Ludwick and Broxton were probably the most controversial), they were defensible. Well, this offseason, we are partially paying the piiper for going "all in" last year. Payroll looks maxed out. Not many excess prospects to trade. But it's ok, the team will still contend. This is about as good as it's going to get for the Reds. Not directed at you mth.. but there is so much pessimism on this board about a team that has a great shot at making the playoffs. Let's saving the gnashing of teeth for a couple years when the most of the rotation departs for bigger $$ and Chapman/Frasier/Mes/Cozart get too pricey due to arb..

Just looked up Wongs numbers. .303 .369 .466 .835 with 20 SBs. And I dont think they are asking him to lead off either. Add toi that they signed Mark Ellis as an insurance policy.

[vaticanplum]

The Pirates have a very strong farm system. It's not a 2014-ready farm system, though. Given my acceptance that the Cardinals' deal with the devil means they will never be bad again, along with how fast I expect the Reds' contract-heavy players to age starting in a couple of years, they'd better get it together to strike in 2014. It may be their last best chance for a while.

I've really stayed away from sports the last few months so even thinking about this dinky little thread is stressing me out.

[smixsell]

Reds 96-66
Cards 94-68
Buccos 88-74

:o)