As it stands right now I would guess:
Cardinals 100-62
Pirates 88-74
Reds 88-74
Brewers 80-82
Cubs 70-92
As it stands right now I would guess:
Cardinals 100-62
Pirates 88-74
Reds 88-74
Brewers 80-82
Cubs 70-92
"When I began playing the game, baseball was about as gentlemanly as a kick in the crotch." - Ty Cobb
IMO, there's zero chance the Cards are anywhere close to that good.
They (as a team) hit way above their heads last year. They lost Beltran (huge loss). Their defense still stinks. The young pitchers also pitched way above their heads IMO. Their rotation is Wainwright, Wacha (expect a big dropoff), Miller (same as league adjusts), Lynn and Kelly. Below average overall IMO.
Yes, they've got some talent...but they've also got loads of red flags that just scream regression IMO. Contenders, yes...100 win team, no way.
What basis are you predicting the huge drop off pitching wise? And they got much better defensively in the off season.Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_
Yes, but you've forgotten about their ability to steal signs...
Donder (12-28-2013),Red Raindog (12-28-2013)
Absolutely agree. The Cards will not be running away with it. In addition to the points made about losing Beltran, regression on their good fortunes of hitting with runners in scoring position, relying on young pitchers... take a look at how many innings Wainwright had last year. 241 regular season innings and another 35 in the post season. 276 innings on a repaired elbow! I would not expect a repeat season from their ace. I'll take the Reds rotation over the Cards right now.
_Sir_Charles_ (12-28-2013)
Cardinals 96-66
Pirates 87-75
Reds 82-80
Brewers 78-84
Cubs 77-85
So in other words we are just hoping some bad things happen when we have no basis whatsoever to back it up.
MikeThierry (12-29-2013)
Pretty close to my prediction, though I could see the Pirates gutter out.
See how Cole comes on and if Liriano comes back to form
A lot of the Pirates' success was built on their bullpen, and bullpens are very volatile. They could repeat, but a lot of things went right for them that could easily go south on them. I think the Pirates and the Reds are roughly .500 teams at this stage, give or take a game or three.
The Cards have only one concern as I see it. How long can they keep their best hitter catching games? Other than that, they're stacked and almost certainly going to run away with the division (though 100 games is pretty unlikely given the overall parity in the sport right now).
On the topic of the cards pitching. They have 9 pitchers that they could slide into or out of the rotation at any time, and all have them have shown so far to be at least adequate.
Their defense upgraded more than it downgraded. They only downgraded, and just slightly, at SS and 1B. They upgraded vastly at 3rd, CF, RF (Beltran was that bad), and 2nd.
Whether or not they win 100 games has more to do with how bad the rest of the central is. If the reds and pirates fall off and the cubs and brewers don't progress much then I think the cards could winning 100, but that is a damn hard thing to do
Nine (!) potential starters? Okay, probably not.
Hate to agree with StL posters here, but I will. When they lost a couple of pieces, they went out and did something about it. The Reds lost a couple of pieces and will apparently do nothing.
+
5TimeWSChamps (01-05-2014)
Wainwright, Garcia, Lynn, Kelly, Wacha, Miller, Rosenthal, Martinez, and Lyons could all start
Looks about right to me, although I think 88 wins is the ceiling for the Reds. As of now, I'm thinking 83-85 wins.
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