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Thread: Early NL Central predictions

  1. #31
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: Early NL Central predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by Salukifan2 View Post
    I know you're kinda joking, but I've always maintained that I think the reds staff is currently the best. This is just about Sir Charles claiming that the cards rotation is ripe for failure which is more of a hope than it is a reality
    I don't think it's "ripe for failure" at all. I just think if Cards fans are expecting full seasons worth of production from Wacha, Miller and Kelly at the same pace they got last season, they're going to be disappointed. Yes they've got depth to go to. But it's a bunch of kids.

    But my main claim that they won't be anywhere close to 100 wins is that they can NOT maintain the kind of success they had offensively last season. Half the lineup (actually more than half) hit ridiculously with runners in scoring position. BABIP was also pretty hefty for a big portion of that lineup. Some may maintain it...but most won't.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

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  3. #32
    Salukifan2
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    Re: Early NL Central predictions

    [QUOTE=_Sir_Charles_;3020096]I don't think it's "ripe for failure" at all. I just think if Cards fans are expecting full seasons worth of production from Wacha, Miller and Kelly at the same pace they got last season, they're going to be disappointed. Yes they've got depth to go to. But it's a bunch of kids.

    But my main claim that they won't be anywhere close to 100 wins is that they can NOT maintain the kind of success they had offensively last season. Half the lineup (actually more than half) hit ridiculously with runners in scoring position. BABIP was also pretty hefty for a big portion of that lineup. Some may maintain it...but most won't.[/QUOTE/]

    The RISP thing will regress but I think most of them will hit better than they did last year without runners on. Will it completely close the gap? No. Also, the power should return somewhat next year. In 2012 5 players had 20+ HR, but last year only 2. I think that will improve.

    About the BABIP, I whole heartedly believe that the cards have a higher BABIP than other teams because of the plate approach that is preached throughout the organization. The cards teach players to swing at strikes a lot and to drive the ball through the middle of the field. This approach is very noticeable from the like of Carpenter, Jay, Molina, Freese, and craig. All the players who were developed within.

  4. #33
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    Re: Early NL Central predictions

    REDS....95-67...1st in Division.

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    smixsell (01-10-2014)

  6. #34
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    Re: Early NL Central predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by indyscott View Post
    So in other words we are just hoping some bad things happen when we have no basis whatsoever to back it up.
    We'll they did lose Beltran.
    Wainwright did throw 276 innings and they are talking about a modified spring training for him so even they are concerned about his workload
    They are counting on a full year of Wacha who hasn't yet thrown a full year in the majors to give a basis of his production.
    They are counting on a full year of Rosenthal as closer which he hasn't done yet either.

    Is that enough basis to doubt their ability to run away with things?

  7. #35
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: Early NL Central predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by Salukifan2 View Post
    About the BABIP, I whole heartedly believe that the cards have a higher BABIP than other teams because of the plate approach that is preached throughout the organization. The cards teach players to swing at strikes a lot and to drive the ball through the middle of the field. This approach is very noticeable from the like of Carpenter, Jay, Molina, Freese, and craig. All the players who were developed within.
    I wasn't saying their BABIP was high compared to the league. It was high compared to themselves. Even if they do normally have a higher than average one, it was even higher than their norm and it should regress.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

  8. #36
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    Re: Early NL Central predictions

    Reds 90 wins
    Cards 89 wins
    Pirates 85 wins
    Cubs 78 wins
    Brewers 75 wins

  9. #37
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    Re: Early NL Central predictions

    Best offense - Cards
    Best pitching - Reds
    Best Defense - Reds

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    smixsell (01-10-2014), Tadasimha (12-29-2013), _Sir_Charles_ (01-05-2014)

  11. #38
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    Re: Early NL Central predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by UPRedsFan View Post
    Best offense - Cards
    Best pitching - Reds
    Best Defense - Reds
    I'll take pitching and defense over just offense.

  12. #39
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    Re: Early NL Central predictions

    Batting Stance Guy ‏@BattingStanceG 12h
    To their credit, if you don't count last 105 years, Cubs have swept last 2 World Series.

  13. #40
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    Re: Early NL Central predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by Kingspoint View Post
    I'll take pitching and defense over just offense.
    Me too. We learned that from 2003 - 2007.

  14. #41
    Salukifan2
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    Re: Early NL Central predictions

    Except the offense is now really really bad. As it stands now, the offense isn't going to have just a "down" year. It has the potential to get pretty ugly. The reds have one player that will get on base at .340 or better. If Bruce doesn't expload this year it'll be a long season for that offense.

  15. #42
    Member Captain Hook's Avatar
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    Re: Early NL Central predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by Kingspoint View Post
    REDS....95-67...1st in Division.
    I'm with you. I think the Reds rotation will be outstanding. If they're just a little healthier than they were last year they'll improve and I could see Bailey completely pricing himself out of Cincinnati by having a monster year. Latos, Cueto, Cingrani and Leake rounding out the rotation is about as good as it gets in baseball. I think a already good rotation will be better and the pen will be better as well with improved health. There's also Votto and Bruce leading the way at the plate. Those two are a great one two punch in any lineup. The supporting cast of Phillips, Hamilton, Frazier, Mesoraco, Ludwick and Cozart isn't as bad as it's being made out to be. I don't think I'm going out on a limb by saying the Reds offence will be solid next year. There's no good reason to think this team shouldn't win at least 90 games in 2014 other than to stir up trouble.
    Last edited by Captain Hook; 12-28-2013 at 05:13 PM.

  16. #43
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    Re: Early NL Central predictions

    Not if our new hitting coach can get Frazier Cozart and Mesoraco to swing only at strikes. And Ludwick provides more production than we saw from LF last year and Phillips has a healthy year.

  17. #44
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: Early NL Central predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by Salukifan2 View Post
    Except the offense is now really really bad. As it stands now, the offense isn't going to have just a "down" year. It has the potential to get pretty ugly. The reds have one player that will get on base at .340 or better. If Bruce doesn't expload this year it'll be a long season for that offense.
    Subtract 1 guy. Choo. Replace him with 1 guy. Hamilton.

    That one change will make this go from a well above average offense to a really bad one? I don't think so.

    We also had down years from several guys. Billy may surprise some people.

    But the bottom line is that the pitching staff and defense is what'll drive this team.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

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    REDREAD (01-08-2014), smixsell (01-10-2014)

  19. #45
    Member MattyHo4Life's Avatar
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    Re: Early NL Central predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    Subtract 1 guy. Choo. Replace him with 1 guy. Hamilton.
    If Hamilton isn't ready, then Choo's relacement could be Schumaker.


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